AERC Working Paper Series

Permanent URI for this collection

https://publication.aercafricalibrary.org/handle/123456789/3979

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 55

Economic Impact Analysis of Morocco’s Integration to Ecowas
(AERC, 2025) Dodo, Akakpo Ayebiogbon
This study assesses imports, customs revenue, and welfare effects in ECOWAS countries following a free trade agreement with Morocco. Trade agreements are expected to increase the share of Moroccan trading to the detriment of ECOWAS producers and simultaneously lead to a drop in supply through regional production and the slowdown in regional integration. To avoid regional disintegration, ECOWAS countries should monitor sensitive products with the private sector, adapt trade policies favorable to the competitiveness of sectors of the economy with high production capacities, build the capacity of actors to be able to exploit market opportunities and encourage local consumption. The study highlighted a decline in customs revenue in ECOWAS. These negative effects on customs tariffs could set back the process of Morocco's integration into ECOWAS. Welfare losses, due to the large diversion effects generated by trade agreements, would likely be significant for consumers.
Reform of the Payroll System and “Intra-civil Servant’s Corruption": Evidence from Democratic Republic of Congo
(AERC, 2025) Cha’ngom, Narcisse; Tchoupé, Christelle
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of payroll system reform on the likelihood that a civil servant (state agent) will experience intra-civil service corruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As part of a broader Public Administration Reform and Rejuvenation Project (PARRP) launched in 2011, a direct payroll system was introduced, replacing the previous practice of civil servants receiving their salaries in cash, by hand, from superiors or accountants, a process prone to various forms of abuse. Using a comprehensive and representative dataset obtained through the PARRP project, we first document a significant prevalence of corruption within the civil service in the pre-reform/pre-compliance period, with approximately 36% of civil servants reporting incidents of pay-related misconduct. Using access to financial services across provinces as a source of exogenous variation, we find that the reform reduced the probability of experiencing any form of pay-related misconduct by more than a third. Moreover, this deterrent effect is stronger in sectors characterized by an initially high prevalence of wage misconduct, where compliance with the reform led to a reduction in the probability of being a victim of wage misconduct of around 51%. These findings underscore the critical importance of considering corruption within the civil service when designing anti-corruption policies. This dimension has been largely neglected in existing policies, which have focused primarily on tackling corruption between state actors and public service users.
Decentralization and Household Prosperity in Cameroon
(AERC, 2025) Fozao, Pascaline Njungoh
Relating to the view that centralized governments are likely to be less sensitive to the needs of the local population than decentralized ones, we set out to investigate the impact of the 2010 decentralization on real total expenditures per adult equivalent – a proxy for household economic well-being (HEW). To do this, appeal is made to the pseudo-panel fixed effect model, with the panel constructed using age cohorts from the two most recent Cameroon household consumption surveys, and the unconditional quantile regression model of Firpo et al. (2009). Specifically, we report fixed effects regressions, correcting standard errors for within-prefecture and age-cohort correlations using the Jackknife estimator, at the mean, across colonial experiences, and the unconditional distribution. Results show that the adjusted exposure to the 2010 decentralization was associated significantly with improvements in household economic well-being (HEW) – in the order of 0.274 log points and 0.247 log points in the full and the labor force samples, respectively. A significant and positive responsiveness of HEW to decentralization is also recorded across expenditure percentiles, and the magnitude increases monotonically from the 10th to the 90th percentiles, except the dent seen among the median households. These results are, in essence, robust across samples (labor force, civil law, and common law samples), at the mean and across the distribution of real total expenditures per adult equivalent. More interestingly, the weighted exposure to the 2010 decentralization is more strongly associated with household economic well-being than the unweighted exposure. These findings are transmitted, at least in part, through improved social service delivery and associated labor market opportunities and these channels have important implications for alleviating poverty and curbing rural-urban migration in Cameroon and elsewhere in Africa.
Women’s Access to Land and Children’s Nutritional Outcomes in Rural Burkina Faso
(AERC, 2025) Kponou, Monsoi Kenneth Colombiano; Nikiema, Pouirkèta Rita
Across developing countries, women play an important role both as producers of major food crops and in improving household nutrition. This research uses data from the country's first Living Standards Measurement Survey to assess the effect of enhancing women’s empowerment on the nutritional outcomes of children in rural Burkina Faso. The results revealed a low baseline level of women’s empowerment in rural areas, but empowerment was positively correlated with children’s nutritional outcomes. This result regarding empowerment warrants further investigation into the components that most significantly affect children’s nutritional status. In this regard, access to land has been identified as a crucial factor in women’s empowerment. To leverage land access, we analyze its effect on children’s nutritional outcomes. Our results suggest that access to land is positively correlated with long-term nutritional status. The study suggests that improving women’s access to land will translate into significant gains in children’s nutritional outcomes in rural households.
How do South-South Integrations Affect Trade in Processed Goods? Evidence for Sub-Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025) Bayala, Dago Yves Steve
We examine the effects of regional integrations on processed goods exports for sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2018. We use a structural gravity model estimated via a Poisson and Bernoulli pseudo maximum likelihood estimators to assess respectively the effects on intensive margins (increase in the value of existing trade) and extensive margins (increase in the number of export products). The results show that integrations in sub-Saharan Africa positively affect trade margins (intensive and extensive) for processed goods, and mainly at the extensive margins. We also find that the effects are more pronounced between countries with similar standards of living. Finally, we show that integrations in sub-Saharan Africa contribute to increased trade in intermediate goods and confirm at a sectorial level that intermediate inputs liberalization contribute significatively to industrialization of sub-Saharan African integrations. These results may have important implications for the establishment of the African Free Trade Area.
Financial Inclusion, Climate-Related Shocks, and Food Security in Ethiopia
(AERC, 2025) Shifa, Muna; Nanziri, Lwanga Elizabeth
In this study, we examine the impact of climate-related shocks on the food security status of households in rural Ethiopia and whether access to financial services can mitigate the adverse consequences of climate related shocks. We use panel data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey. Climate-related shocks are measured using self-reported shocks, as well as satellite-based weather data. To minimise endogeneity concerns in our regression analysis, we use a panel data correlated random effects (CRE) approach and an estimation approach, which combines a control function approach with the CRE approach. We show evidence of the negative and statistically significant impact of climate-related shocks on food security, meaning that households who have experienced climate-related shocks are more likely to report food insecurity. The findings also show that households that can save money, whether through formal or informal means, are less likely to experience food insecurity. In addition, we show that formal saving helps households reduce the negative impact of climate-related shocks on food security in rural Ethiopia.
Cereal Trade and Food Security: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025) Zahonogo, Windbeneti Arnaud
Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) aims to end world hunger, but Africa is currently not on track to meet this goal. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly affected, with a significant increase in undernourished people. The issue of food security is, therefore, a pressing concern, and promoting trade has been suggested as one solution. This study examines the impact of cereal import openness on the prevalence of undernourishment in 27 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000 - 2020. Using a two-stage least square instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) estimator, we find that greater cereal import openness is significantly associated with higher levels of undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa and then increased food insecurity. Our results are robust to alternative food security indicators.
Exploring the Impact of Climate Smart Innovations on Household Food Security in Ethiopia
(AERC, 2025) Bedeke, Sisay Belay
Agro-food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa are frequently hampered by climate change as most farmers rely heavily on a climate-sensitive rainfed system. To improve agricultural production and achieve food security while building resilience to climate risks, the promotion of Climate Smart Innovations (CSIs) such as crop choice and conservation tillage in combination with irrigation use is critically required. Although there is extensive literature in Ethiopia on the drivers of CSI adoption, there are mixed findings on the single and joint CSI adoption impacts on household food security. To this end, this study examines factors influencing a single and joint adoption of CSI and how this adoption impacts household food security in Ethiopia. Data on social, biophysical, and economic factors, institutional support systems, CSI adoption, and food security were obtained from a panel Ethiopian Socio-economic Survey (ESS) data, a nationally representative survey, covering three waves (2013/2014, 2015/2016, and 2018/2019). Descriptive statistics such as mean and percentages as well as an endogenous switching regression model were applied to estimate the effect of a single and joint CSI adoption on household food security while at the same time accounting for endogeneity problems. Findings indicate that a single and joint CSI adoption has positive effects on HFCS, but negative effects on the HFIAS and CCSI. Results reveal that a single CSI adoption has positive and significant gains over the joint CSI adoption in terms of HFCS. This is supported by the positive and significant gains for the single adoption of crop choice only and irrigation use only compared to the gains obtained from the joint adoption of crop choice, conservation tillage, and irrigation practices. Hence, the results do not support the notion that the joint adoption of large complementary CSI often results in higher gains in food security. Based on these results, it was concluded that improvement in food security is not only driven by the type and number of CSIs jointly adopted but rather depends on several policy-relevant variables including access to credit services and access to weather information, and membership status in farmer/women organizations. This suggests that greater support in terms of improving access to credit and weather information should be in place for CSI non-adopters to reduce food insecurity.
Electricity Shortage and Productivity: Why Do Some Firms Thrive in a Poor Business Environment while others are Unable?
(AERC, 2025) Seukou, Yvette Djoha; Nourou, Mohammadou; Fokou, Carrel
Although the relationship between unreliable electric power costs and firm productivity has received considerable attention from researchers, few studies have asked why some firms succeed in an unreliable electric power environment while others are unable to. To achieve the study's purpose, the paper compares the World Bank Enterprise survey’s unbalanced panel data over two periods: 2006-2014 and 2008-2023. Additionally, it uses the "k-means clustering" algorithm to rank clusters of sub-Saharan African firms that share similar electricity shortages experience, adaptation strategies and productivity profiles. The multinomial probit model is used to determine the success factors of firms operating in an unfavorable environment, at firm and industry level over time. We find that there are three categories of firms operating under the constraints of power shortages: “heavily impacted firms”, partially impacted firms”, and “resilient firms”. Strong institutions reduce the probability of belonging to the group of firms that are “heavily impacted” by electricity shortages. In contrast, the probability of belonging to the “resilient” group of firms increases with gross domestic product. When we look at the influence of entrepreneurs' perception of certain obstacles in the business environment (electricity shortage and the informal sector) on cluster membership, we find that, for both grouped and period data, the perception of electricity shortage and the informal sector as a major obstacle in the business environment also explain cluster membership.
Effect of Landownership by Women on Household Food Security in Benin
(AERC, 2025) TOSSOU, Judith Urielle
Given the extent of food insecurity among rural women and gender inequalities linked to land rights, this research examines the effect of women's land ownership on household food security in Benin. The data comes from the Global Analysis of Vulnerability and Food Security survey (AGVSA, 2017). The propensity score matching (PSM) method and endogenous switching regression are applied to a sample of approximately 6502 households, of which 21% (1366) of agricultural households included female landowners. The results estimated using the (ESR) method and the (PSM) method reveal a positive and significant effect of women's land ownership on household food security. Following the ESR and PSM method; the results reveal that the factors that significantly influence women's land ownership are age, household size, agricultural empowerment index, access to credit, and levels of "primary" and "at least" education. less secondary” and the household’s housing status. Following the ESR method, the effect of transient heterogeneity is positive; which implies that the effect of land ownership on the food security index is significantly higher for women who have land than for those who do not. The potential effect of heterogeneity in the sample reveals that women who have land property would have a higher positive food security index than women who do not have it. The results indicate the very important role of land ownership by women in resolving food insecurity in rural Benin. Given our results and to improve the level of household food security in Africa and more precisely in Benin, political decision-makers will have to favor and encourage many women to acquire not only land but also large areas of land through applicable policies and reforms. Then, political decision-makers must also put in place communication systems to encourage more women's access to agricultural inputs and the practice of irrigation. Finally, decision-makers must increase access to credit for women.
Effects of Financial Inclusion on Tax Revenue Mobilization : Evidence from WAEMU Countries
(AERC, 2025) Chebochok, Milly Chepkorir; Bayale, Nimonka
Financial inclusion remains at the heart of government concerns. By creating favorable conditions for access to a diversified range of adapted financial products and services at affordable costs for the population, financial inclusion generates important opportunities that could lead to increased tax revenue mobilization. This paper analyzes the effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization, using panel data from West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2006-2019. The findings suggest that financial inclusion positively and significantly influences the government's tax revenue. For example, an increase in one point of the financial inclusion index corresponds to an increase in total tax revenues by 0.63 points. Moreover, by looking at the effects of disaggregated financial inclusion dimensions (access, use, and affordability) on various components of tax revenue, we find that the estimated coefficients on the sub-components of financial inclusion are statistically significant. Results also indicate the magnitude of the effect of financial inclusion is higher on indirect taxes compared to direct tax revenues. This research recommends that policymakers should prioritize financial inclusion in their policies and development agenda through National Financial Inclusion Strategies (NFIS) because it can increase countries’ resource mobilization and help them build fiscal resilience.
The Role of Mobile Money on Household Food Security During Drought Shocks: An Evaluation of Key Pathways
(AERC, 2025) Abiona, Olukorede
This paper investigates the interaction between mobile money use and exposure to drought events among smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania. We examine the impact of drought on household food security for mobile money adopters relative to non-adopters. To investigate this pattern, we use household and agricultural datasets from the Tanzanian National Panel surveys (TNPS) between 2010 and 2020 in a difference-in-difference framework. Our findings demonstrate an added advantage of drought-mitigating strategies for adopter households by way of strategic farm inputs to improve yields as pathways. This paper contributes to the literature by building unique empirical evidence relating to innovative behaviours from mobile money adoption to support agricultural investment for sustainable household food security over a long-term period. Access to credits is revealed as the channel of transmission.
The Effect of Mobile Money on Financial Inclusion in Mozambique
(AERC, 2025) Ponguane, Sérgio
Financial inclusion is widely considered an important tool to ensure sustainable economic growth and alleviate poverty and inequality. However, financial inclusion in Mozambique is low compared to other African countries. The revolution of ICT and financial technologies, including mobile money is a breakthrough in financial inclusion. This study aimed to analyse the effect of mobile money on financial inclusion in Mozambique using the 2021 Global Findex data. Treatment Effect Model and Propensity Score Matching techniques were used to address the research questions. Findings suggest that mobile money positively affects savings and borrowing. However, the determinants of mobile money adoption and barriers are similar to those of conventional banking. This means that mobile money is more likely to benefit individuals who are already financially included. Therefore, inclusive financial strategies will require that access points expansion is combined with initiatives that improve household income and financial literacy.
Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025) Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu; Usman, Muhammed A.; Kedir, Abbi
Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.
Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub- Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025-11) Tekalign Gutu Sakketa; Muhammed A. Usman; Abbi Kedir
Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.
Is the Link between Public Debt and Private Investment Asymmetric in Kenya?
(AERC, 2026) Roseline Nyakerario Misati; Anne Wangari Kamau; Maureen Teresa Odongo; Kethi Ngoka
This study examined the relationship between public debt and private investment in Kenya, with a focus on the asymmetric effects of public debt. The study used both descriptive and empirical analysis, which was conducted using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models and annual data covering the period 1967-2022. Three conclusions can be drawn from the descriptive analysis. First, debt spikes and troughs are explainable by a diversity of factors, including policy shifts and support to state-owned enterprises, with fiscal consolidation having a minimal role. Second, foreign-financed targeted and short-term projects, particularly towards the rural areas and low-income groups, have had a high success rate. Third, among comparator countries, Kenya ranks low in public investment efficiency scores, particularly in project selection and appraisal. The empirical results show evidence of asymmetric response of private investment to public debt with heterogeneity across various components of public debt. Specifically, the results show that rising public debt, external debt, and debt servicing are detrimental to private investment in the long run. The results also showed that the impact of an increase in debt on private investment is higher than the impact of a debt reduction, suggesting that an increase in debt may not be reversed by a similar reduction in debt. The results further show that declining domestic debt significantly decreases private investment, contradicting the crowding-out theory. The study makes five recommendations. First, the use of external debt should be strategic and targeted at sectors that bolster the private sector while minimizing reliance on commercial loans. Second, there is a need for further analysis to identify and focus policy on sectors that benefit from the complementary effects of domestic debt on private investment. Third, policy interventions on public debt should be heterogeneous across different components of debt. Fourth, efficiency gains from public investment would be enhanced by focusing policy priority on project selection and appraisal. Fifth, policymakers concerned with public debt management need to take into account the possible inability to reverse public debt increases with similar amounts of decreases.
Understanding the Determinants of Mobile Money Usage and its Effect on Firm Performance: Cross-Country Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa
(AERC, 2026) Joseph B. Ajefu; Adolicia Rasoarivao
A growing number of studies have examined the roles of mobile money usage in relation to firms’ outcomes, but little emphasis has been placed on the cross-country determinants of mobile money usage as well as its impact on firms’ performance. This paper examines the determinants of mobile money usage and its impacts on firms’ total sales and profits (proxied as firm performance) using a sample of firms across 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the determinants or drivers of mobile money usage by firms in sub-Saharan Africa, this paper adopts both the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, probit model, ordered probit model approach. The paper identifies a few variables (factors) such as firm level as well as macro-level variables as determinants of mobile money usage by firms. In addition, this paper estimates the impact of mobile money on firms’ performance by adopting the ordinary least squares, and an instrumental variable (IV) estimation approach. Further, using the OLS and IV approaches, the paper finds statistically significant effect of mobile money usage on firms’ performance for the sample of firms in our analysis. The findings lend credence to the growing consensus about the relevance of mobile money in addressing issues of credit constraint of firms and its implications on firms’ performance in developing countries, especially in the context of sub-Saharan Africa.
Inequality of Opportunity in Prevention of Malaria in Pregnancy in Kenya
(AERC, 2026) Elizabeth Owiti
Background: Kenya is classified as a malaria epidemic zone with more than 70% of the population at high risk of the disease, while the remaining are at low risk. Pregnant women are more vulnerable to malaria infection, and maternal and infant morbidity and mortality in Kenya are associated with malaria in pregnancy. The government of Kenya promotes malaria prevention in pregnancy using insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent prevention treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). The objective of this study is to estimate the trend of coverage and inequality of opportunity in the prevention of malaria in pregnancy in Kenya and establish the determinants of these inequalities. Methodology: We used the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) to examine the equality of opportunity in joint use of two malaria prevention interventions: insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) among pregnant women in Kenya. The Shapley decomposition method is used to capture the contribution of each circumstance to inequality of these opportunities, using pooled KDHS data for 2003, 2008/09, 2014, and 2022. Results: We find that between 2003 and 2022 the cummulative national coverage, dissimilarity, and HOI of using ITNs and IPTp–SP were 45.4%, 3.8% and 43.7%. The trend of coverage and HOI increased from 12.2% to 65.3% and from 10.7% to 62.4% during the same period. While inequality decreased from12.8% to 1.6% and then increased to 4.4% in 2022. The coverage implies that malaria prevention services were not available for 34.7% of pregnant women in by 2022. The HOI increased by 48.6% from 2003 to 2008/09, 0.7% of the increase was due to change in the distribution of circumstances and 41.1% increase was due to increase in overall coverage and 6.9% increase was due to equalization effect. In the Lake Victoria region and the Coastal malaria stable areas in Kenya, there was an increasing trend in of utilization of both ITNs and IPTp–SP from 11.8% in 2003 to 83.3% in 2014, then a declined to 65.4% in 2022. The HOI increased from 9.2% to 83.14%, then declined to 59.2%. The dissimilsrity index declined from 22.3 % to 0.16% in 2014, then incresed to 9.5% in 2022. There was a significant decline in inequality of opportunity between 2003 and 2014, but an increase there after. These increase could be attributed to distruptiosn in access to health services during and after COVID 19 outbreak. Using Shapley decomposition, we find the top five circumstances contributing to inequality of opportunity for ITNs and IPTp – SP utilization are: women’s level of education, spouse occupation, average number of women per cluster delivering in the health facilities, among others. Conclusion: While the country made progress in increasing coverage, access and reducing inequality in malaria prevenion among pregnant women between 2003 and 2014, there were set backs post 2014 leaving over 34% unprotected by 2022. The malaria endemic zone is the most affected. To achieve univeral coverage, the government needs to intensify the efforts to close the gap in coverage and access while eliminating dispatities especially in high risk Lake Victoria region and the Coastal regions
Assessing the Impact of Input Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Applied Political Economy Analysis
(AERC, 2026) Joseph Manzvera; Mark Manyanga
The increasing policy interests and vibrant scholarly debate surrounding the impact of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have inspired a growing literature on how input subsidies affect agricultural productivity. The available empirical evidence provides contrasting views, with one school of thought supporting input subsidies as agricultural productivity catalysts, while another school of thought views input subsidies as agricultural policies that failed to stimulate productivity but instead imposed unsustainable pressure on national fiscal resources. Therefore, understanding the extent to which input subsidies influence agricultural productivity, the prevailing effect, and the drivers behind one effect or the other is a pressing matter to guide policy and practice. As such, this study systematically reviewed existing literature on the subject matter and synthesized the evidence through an applied political economy analysis lens. Concurrently, a meta-analysis was conducted to disentangle the potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of input subsidy programs across different countries. The findings showed that input subsidy programs contributed to boosting agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa in general. The average pooled effect size of input subsidies on crop value is US$128/ha (p<0.01). However, there exists a significant heterogeneity in the effect of input subsidy programs from one study to the other (Ι 2 = 100%). This underscored the role played by the prevailing political economy landscape and other subsidy-specific characteristics on the effectiveness of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Input subsidy programs providing input packages with both fertilizer and improved seeds, as well as the use of a voucher system, enhance the effectiveness of input subsidies. The incidences of political patronage in subsidized input distribution, on the other hand, undermine the effectiveness of input subsidies. Contingent upon these findings, it is therefore proposed that input subsidy packages should include both fertilizer and improved seeds rather than fertilizer alone. There is also a need to deliberately incorporate legume crops, both from crop diversity and soil fertility points of view. The use of a voucher system is also encouraged to strengthen transparency and increase logistics efficiency and recipient targeting, while also permitting the timely delivery of subsidized inputs to farmers. To curb political patronage, it is suggested that farmer production return forms be used in input subsidy targeting to identify productive (but resource-constrained) farmers and, as a result, remove the involvement of public officials.
Household Response to Seasonal Hunger in Uganda: Evidence from National Panel Surveys
(AERC, 2026) Ibrahim Kasirye; Madina Guloba
Despite Uganda having constitutional provisions to ensure food security, a large population of Ugandans can still not meet the minimum recommended dietary intake (RDI). In addition, there are within-country variations in the number of cropping seasons, which affect continuous food availability. The study explored the correlates of seasonal hunger, an important but neglected issue within the African and Ugandan food security literature. In addition, we explored the nature of coping strategies adopted by households faced with seasonal hunger using four waves of a unique panel dataset of Ugandan households from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We find that fertilisers significantly reduce the risk of experiencing seasonal hunger. In some estimations, having a household member engaged in wage employment is associated with an increased risk of seasonal hunger. Our results show that policies focusing on smoothing consumption or boosting productivity can help address seasonal hunger. Concerning the appropriateness of coping strategies, we find that having adequate storage is negatively associated with the seasonal hunger experience. Regarding policies, households can adopt ex-ante strategies to smooth consumption, such as keeping livestock and establishing appropriate storage facilities. Social protection interventions should thus have a livestock component. Using improved agricultural inputs should be a major focus for extension services in order to enhance productivity.

Browse

Browsing AERC Working Paper Series by Issue Date

Results Per Page

Sort Options