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1. Policy Briefs
Concise summaries that present research findings and policy recommendations on key economic issues to inform policymakers and stakeholders.
2. Research Papers
In-depth studies and scholarly articles that explore various aspects of economic theories and empirical research, contributing to academic discourse and understanding.
3. Working Papers
Preliminary reports on ongoing research that are circulated to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication.
4. Theses and Dissertations:
CPP Thesis: Rigorous academic research focused on pertinent policy issues, typically by candidates of the Collaborative PhD Program. CMAP Thesis: Scholarly works by Master's candidates involved in the Collaborative Master's in Economics Program, showcasing original research in the Economics sector. CMAAE Thesis: Advanced research endeavors by Master's students under the Collaborative Master's in Agricultural and Applied Economics, contributing to knowledge in agricultural economics and related fields CMAAE Thesis
5. Senior Policy Seminar papers
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) holds a Senior Policy Seminar annually. This conference is hosted by AERC and sometimes jointly with a partner. AERC convenes this forum to provide high level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected on the basis of topicality and contemporary interest to African policy making.
6. Other Publications
A diverse range of documents including, but not limited to, conference papers, book chapters, and research updates that do not fall under the conventional categories.

Recent Submissions

Publication

The Effect of Non-Farm Activities on Rural Household Consumption in Sudan: Evidence from Endogenous Switching Regression Model

(AERC, 2026) Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali; Ebaidalla Mahajoub Ebaidalla

Despite the growing prevalence of non-farm activities (NFA) in rural Sudan, their implications for household consumption and welfare remain underexplored. This study investigates the determinants of rural household participation in NFAs and assesses their impact on household consumption levels in Sudan. The research utilizes data from the 2015 Sudan National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and applies an endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to address potential selection bias and endogeneity. This methodology jointly estimates the decision to participate in NFAs and the corresponding consumption outcomes for participant and non-participant households. The results show that household head gender, education, age, media access, credit access, rain-fed irrigation, farm income, distance to urban centers, and regional location significantly impact both NFA participation and household consumption. Treatment effect estimates indicate that NFA engagement significantly increases total and food consumption, with results consistent across wage employment and self-employment types. This study makes key contributions to the literature by being the first to empirically assess the impact of NFAs on household consumption in Sudan. Additionally, it provides novel insights into the heterogeneous welfare outcomes of wage-based versus self-employment NFAs in rural areas.

Publication

Social Networks and Technology Adoption: Evidence from Mobile Money in Uganda

(AERC, 2026) Alfred Kechia Mukong; Lwanga Elizabeth Nanziri

Innovative financial technologies are becoming a pathway to inclusive economic participation for individuals and firms. This paper presents evidence on how individuals’ decisions to adopt such technology, particularly mobile money, relate to the adoption choices of their network of family and friends. Using the Uganda Financial Inclusion Insights (FII) Tracker Survey for 2013, we find that mobile money adoption decisions are closely linked to the network of an individual’s family and friends. Networks are defined in two ways: by the source of information on mobile money services and by the average number of adoptions in one’s neighbourhood. Like many other studies, we find a positive correlation between mobile money adoption and the adoption decisions of one’s network. The correlation persists across the different measures of networks and even when we control for unobservable (neighbourhood fixed effects) characteristics. However, the magnitude of the point estimates decreases as the model becomes saturated. Despite having more mobile money users than adopters in our sample, we do not find evidence that networks can stifle technology adoption due to the possibility of piggybacking on early adopters within the network.

Publication

Banking Market Structure and Heterogeneous Response of Bank Lending to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Uganda

(AERC, 2026) Dorothy Nampewo

This paper investigates the heterogeneous response of bank lending following a monetary policy change. The study was conducted in the context of developing countries and is based on dynamic panel error correction methods using quarterly Ugandan bank-level data for the period 2011 - 2019. Results support the presence of heterogeneity in bank lending response to monetary policy changes by bank size and ownership type. Specifically, monetary policy pass-through is weaker in large foreign banks and stronger in smaller Pan-African banks. Moreover, bank lending response to monetary policy is asymmetric, with insignificant effects when the policy rate is falling. Risk, government borrowing, capital, and liquidity at the bank level, competition at the industry level, and inflation at the macro level are some of the factors that explain the response of bank lending to monetary policy.

Publication

INCLUSION FINANCIERE INNOVATION FINANCIERE ET PERFORMANCE DES ENTREPRISES

(AERC, 2026) Ahodode Bernadin Géraud Comlan; Eloundou Okala E. Bertrand; Bayiha N. T. Yolande

Cette étude analyse les effets de l'utilisation des services financiers (inclusion financière et innovation financière) sur la performance des entreprises au Cameroun. Les méthodes d'estimation des moindres carrés ordinaires et du modèle logit ont été utilisées pour les analyses empiriques. Les données utilisées proviennent de la base de données de l'enquête sur les entreprises 2016 de la Banque mondiale, qui couvre 361 entreprises. Les résultats révèlent, d'une part, les effets positifs de tous les services financiers sur la productivité du travail des entreprises et sur leur propension à exporter, à l'exception de l'utilisation exclusive de la microfinance et de l'argent mobile. D'autre part, nous notons la contribution des services bancaires à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires de l'industrie manufacturière, et en particulier des services bancaires, de microfinance et de monnaie mobile à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires du commerce et des services. Pour y parvenir, il est nécessaire de libéraliser le secteur financier au profit des opérateurs de réseau afin qu'ils puissent également opérer à l'international, et en ce qui concerne les institutions de microfinance, d'améliorer les performances des entreprises au Cameroun, comme l'ont fait leurs homologues au Ghana et au Kenya.

Publication

Banks' Exposure to Sovereign Debt and Loans to The Private Sector in WAEMU

(AERC, 2026) Djeneba DRAMÉ

This paper examines the relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign debt and their lending to the private sector. To do so, we use hand-collected bank-level data from all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2003-2022. The results show a negative relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign securities and their loans to the private sector. Our findings are robust to alternative estimation techniques and proxies for loans to the private sector and domestic public debt identification. The heterogeneity analysis uncovers that the effect is more pronounced in middle-income countries (LMICs) than in low-income countries (LICs). Additionally, we document that foreign banks, particularly Pan-African banks, reduce their loans more than domestic banks. However, larger and well-capitalized banks tend to mitigate the effect.

Publication

Economic Analysis of The Adoption of E-Commerce by Businesses in Cameroon

(AERC, 2026) Mpabe Bodjongo; Mathieu Juliot

The objective of this article is to identify factors likely to stimulate e-commerce in Cameroon. The analysis focuses on a sample of 145,439 companies from the 2nd General Business Census (INS, 2018). Drawing on the economic literature, the results obtained using the probit model that combines endogeneity bias treatment and selection bias correction, and the Heckman selection bias correction probit model, reveal that increases in company size, the use of mobile money, education levels, and proximity significantly promote the adoption of e-commerce by businesses. At the sectoral level, these results are only verified in the "Trade and transport" and "Construction and other tertiary services" sub-sectors.

Publication

Bridging Gender Productivity Gaps in Cameroon’s Agrifood Micro-Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

(AERC, 2026) Ousmanou Njikam; Coralie Paloma Mbengono; Valentin Désiré Guiama

• Rigorous decomposition analysis reveals both the extent of the gender productivity gap and the underlying drivers shaping Cameroon’s agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). • The analysis distinguishes between formal and informal agrifood MSMEs, uncovering important differences in how gender gaps manifest across enterprise types. • Differences in returns to inputs drive the gender gap in both formal and informal agrifood MSMEs, pointing to persistent structural constraints and potential gender-based discrimination. • Structural determinants of the gender gap operate in two levels: common factors across sectors, including sectoral segregation, number of children, and vocational training and apprenticeship, and sector-specific and sector specific constraints, such as low education attainment, limited business networks and social connections, restricted access to bank credit, and low awareness of public policies). • Mechanisms driving productivity disproportionately affect enterprises established through bank loans, small-sized enterprises (10-25 employees), and agrifood MSMEs operating for more than three years. • Gender-responsive policy interventions are critical to achieving productivity parity. Priority should be given to reduce inequalities in (i) family and social responsibilities, (ii) educational attainment and training, (iii) access to formal finance, (iv) sectoral choice, (v) networks and social capital, and (vi) awareness and uptake of public support policies.

Publication

Agricultural Production Diversity and Market Access: Implications for Dietary Diversity among Smallholder Farm Households in Cameroon

(AERC, 2026) Anchang Juliana Adjem; Meliko Majory; Uwem Essia

Overnutrition, overweight, and obesity as consequences of nutrition transition are a growing concern of public policy in less developed countries, where it poses a triple burden even to rural areas battling with undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. The complex link between agriculture and nutritional outcomes has been well established. However, studies often overlook key socio-cultural dimensions of nutrition outcomes in the context of the nutrition transition and the increasing triple burden of malnutrition in rural agricultural communities. This study seeks to investigate the implications of agricultural production diversity on dietary diversity in rural smallholder farm households. We hypothesize that in addition to the contribution of production diversity and the mediating role of market access, socio-cultural factors have a significant influence on household dietary diversity and quality. Data was obtained from a cross-sectional survey of smallholder farm households in the Southwest Region, Cameroon, from 2018 to 2019. The effect of agricultural production diversity and better market access was estimated to be positive using both Generalised Poisson regression and Instrumental Variable two Stage Least Square or Instrumental Variable Poisson models. While better market access plays a positive and significant role in nutrition security and diet quality for smallholder farm households, we found that agricultural production diversity has a greater positive effect on diet outcomes than market access. Similarly, households with women empowerment indicators and better knowledge on nutrition were associated with better diet outcomes. We found a greater proportion of households with unfavourable attitudes relating to socio-cultural norms and perception. We posit that agricultural and food policies and investments should adopt an integrated approach that aligns with societal and cultural needs in promoting market access and encouraging more nutritious food choices to effectively and sustainably tackle challenges to poor nutrition. However, longitudinal studies are essential and will provide rigour on the role agricultural production diversity plays in the nutritional and health status of rural households in Cameroon.

Publication

Safeguarding Nutrition in Togo: Policy Responses to Rising Food Prices

(AERC, 2026) Amy KA; Assion Lawson Sipoaka; Françoise Okah Efogo; Mamatchi Melila

Rising food prices significantly reduce food consumption and worsen the nutritional status of households in Togo. The impacts are gender-differentiated and vary between urban and rural areas. Universal policy responses can cushion shocks but place substantial pressure on public finances. Well-targeted, nutrition-sensitive cash or in-kind transfers are the most effective short-term policy response.

Publication

Enhancing Fish Consumption Through Retail Market Policy Interventions in Kenya

(AERC, 2026) Kevin Okoth Ouko; Clarietta Chagwiza; Modock Oketch; Maureen Jepkorir Cheserek; Florence Achieng Opondo

• Promoting fish consumption provides an affordable, nutrient-dense approach to addressing nutrition challenges in Siaya County, Kenya. Policy support for locally available fish can enhance dietary quality, particularly for children, pregnant and lactating women, and low-income households. • Household fish consumption is shaped by market systems including infrastructure, food safety, and pricing, with rural and peri-urban households facing the greatest access barriers, underscoring the need for targeted market investments.

Publication

Protecting Household Nutrition in Senegal amid Food Price Shocks: Policy Options to Safeguard Vulnerable Populations

(AERC, 2026) Amy KA; Françoise Okah Efogo,; Assion Lawson SIpoaka; Mamatchi Melila

Food inflation poses a major threat to food and nutrition security in Senegal. In November 2022, food inflation reached 14.1%, significantly reducing households' purchasing power and access to quality food. While progress has been made in reducing chronic malnutrition, acute malnutrition has increased, highlighting a growing vulnerability to price shocks. This policy brief assesses the effects of rising food prices on Senegalese households using a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) combined with a household-level microsimulation module. The results show that an increase in international food prices leads to a 0.34 per cent decline in food consumption, a deterioration in energy intake (+0.28 nutritional poverty points), and a marked deterioration in essential micronutrient intake.

Publication

Impact of Interest Rate Controls on Risk-taking Behavior of Kenyan Commercial Banks

(AERC, 2026) Wytone Yohane Jombo

This study investigates the impact of interest rate capping on banks’ risk-taking behaviour in Kenya, a topic that has been underexplored in the existing literature. The study uses the non-performing loans ratio and z-score as proxies for risk appetite and employs a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) approach to analyse data from 26 commercial banks from 2013 to 2019. The study overcomes the challenge of the universal application of the cap across all Kenyan banks by capitalizing on the intensity of interest rates charged by different banks before the capping policy. The findings suggest that banks’ risk appetite significantly increased post-capping, indicating the negative impact of interest rate controls on banks. This is consistent with the general trend observed in related literature. The effects vary across bank peer categories, with medium-sized banks exhibiting the most pronounced changes. The study also reveals that the effect of interest rate capping on risk-taking behaviour varies based on the capital adequacy levels of banks. Based on these findings, the study calls for a reconsideration of the universal application of interest rate caps and suggests tailored approaches based on bank size or capital adequacy. It urges regulatory bodies to adopt a dynamic approach and conduct periodic reviews to manage the evolving risk landscape. The study emphasizes the importance of continuous dialogue between regulatory bodies and financial institutions to foster adaptive regulatory frameworks that balance stimulating economic growth and maintaining financial stability.

Publication

Financial Development Benefits of Banking Sector Globalization in Africa: Is There a Cross-border Banking Threshold Effect?

(AERC, 2026) Christian Lambert Nguena; Sostella Arida Tchouala Feutsa

Banking globalization’s effects on financial development in Africa are challenging to define, even without considering financial crises. By utilizing panel data and threshold regression techniques on a comprehensive database covering 47 Sub-Saharan African countries and 429 commercial banks from 1996 to 2020, we examine the non-linear impact between banking globalization and financial development, mainly to detect at what level a country should accept cross-border banking phenomenon. The statistical analysis reveals a non-linear impact of banking globalization on financial development, which remains consistent across different proxies and estimation methods. This fundamental finding enabled us to identify the threshold point and distinguish various regimes using panel threshold regression techniques. The findings confirm a U-shaped relationship, where the negative impact of cross-border banking activity is present but becomes positive after surpassing a threshold of -28.15. Subpar levels of banking globalization yield unfavorable outcomes in terms of consumption smoothing, volatility reduction, and overall financial sector development. To benefit from banking globalization, each country should ensure that cross-border banking activity exceeds the threshold of -28.15. Additional recommendations are discussed in the main text.

Publication

Fiscal Policy and External Imbalances in Ghana: Twin Deficits in Time of Rising Debt

(AERC, 2026-12) Ekpeno L. Effiong

The recent rise in debt accumulation among SSA countries has raised concerns of a possible looming debt crisis. High debt levels often lead to higher fiscal deficits and a potential fiscal crisis, which can affect future growth prospects and external adjustment. This study seeks to investigate the role of public debt on the relationship between fiscal policy and current account for Ghana, which is confronted with a high risk of debt distress and persistent twin deficits. Allowing for nonlinearity and state-dependence in the relationship between fiscal policy and the current account, the paper finds evidence of the twin deficits phenomenon for a low-debt environment; whereas for the high-debt environment, the relationship is negative and relatively stable, though statistically insignificant, which supports the Ricardian Equivalence hypothesis. Specifically, fiscal expansion on the current account is subdued in the high-debt environment, but has a sizable and significant positive effect in the low-debt environment. Thus, fiscal consolidation along with debt restructuring may be necessary for economic recovery, ensuring both debt and current account sustainability, especially in times of high debt distress.

Publication

Horizontal Equity in the Use of Maternal Health Services in Cameroon

(AERC, 2023-12) Saleu Feumeni Josiane

An equitable healthcare system should be the health policy goal of all countries. The objective of this study is to measure horizontal equity in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon from 2004 to 2018. Specifically, it aims to determine the level of inequity in assistance during delivery and in the intake of tetanus vaccine from 2004 to 2018. It identifies sources of inequity in assistance during delivery and at the intake of tetanus vaccine. To accomplish this, we used the indirect standardization of health care method and the 2004, 2011, and 2018 Demographic and Health Surveys. The results show that there are significant inequities in wealth, education, region of residence, and in the access to the nearest health facilities. Furthermore, sociodemographic and economic inequities are associated with health care utilization inequities. A health policy implementation monitoring team is therefore essential if the observed inequities in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon are to be significantly reduced.

Publication

The Effect of Nutrition Knowledge and Women's Empowerment on Nutrition Outcomes of Children in Rural Ethiopia

(AERC, 2020) Mequanint B. Melesse

Child malnutrition in its various forms remains widespread in Ethiopia, and children often consume poor diets characterized by low diversity. Efforts seeking to improve child nutrition have placed a strong emphasis on women’s role. Women’s nutrition knowledge and empowerment are vital impact pathways for nutrition-sensitive programs and interventions. This paper examines the effects of women’s nutrition knowledge and empowerment on child nutrition outcomes using survey data from rural Ethiopia. Using an instrumental variable (IV) approach to address potential endogeneity concerns, women’s nutrition knowledge and empowerment are found to have strong and significant effects on reducing child stunting. The interaction between nutrition knowledge and women’s empowerment appears to have additional power in explaining child stunting. A disaggregated analysis of empowerment reveals that empowering women in agricultural household decisions and increasing their access to and control of economic resources are more promising for improving child nutrition. Overall, the findings suggest efforts targeting to improve child nutrition in rural Ethiopia need to ensure that they are complemented by efforts to improve women’s nutrition knowledge and empowerment.

Publication

Tax Compliance by African Businesses: What Matters and What Doesn’t

(AERC, 2026) Uwem Ibanga; Alex Iriabije; Chuku Chuku

Small- and medium-sized enterprises in Africa are considered a high-risk group for tax noncompliance. This is so because they have to self-assess and self-report their taxable income, which literally implies ”paying taxes from their pockets”, unlike other groups such as individuals and big corporations. This study seeks to identify the factors that affect tax compliance levels by small- and medium-sized enterprises in Africa, especially those factors that are related to the macro-institutional environment. We attempt to answer three fundamental questions: (i) What determines tax compliance by African businesses? (ii) What macro-institutional factors are important for tax compliance levels? And (iii), what is the relationship between tax compliance levels and the productivity and propensity of a firm to innovate? We use conditional probability regression models to analyse firm-manager responses in different waves of the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for five countries. After controlling for potential econometric problems arising from concerns about the “truthfulness” and “missingness” of the responses, the findings show that what matters for tax compliance of businesses in Africa are the firm’s legal status, the tax administration system, corruption perception, licenses and permit ,customs and trade regulations, and the complexity of the tax system. Interestingly, our results show that firms that indulge in tax evasion are the same firms that are less likely to innovate, although this conclusion is nuanced in many cases.

Publication

Understanding Drivers of Adoption of Crop Bio-Fortification in Zimbabwe: Implications for Food Policy

(AERC, 2026) Kingstone Mujeyi; Jackqeline Mutambara; Angeline Mujeyi; Victor Okoruwa

The study used secondary data collected from 2,913 households to estimate actual and potential adoption rates of bio-fortified crop varieties in Zimbabwe and determinants of exposure to and adoption of bio-fortification. It found that 88.6% of the households were aware of the technology while 46.3% had accessed at least one variety of the bio-fortified crops. Overall, 47.0% had been fully exposed to at least one bio-fortified crop variety, thereby limiting the actual adoption rate to about 41.0%, when in fact the potential adoption rate could have reached 87.0% had the entire population in the eight districts been exposed. The exposed sample adoption rate of 88.0% implies a substantial population adoption gap of 46.0%, emanating from the incomplete exposure of the target population to the technology. Results of Average Treatment Effects (ATE) adoption estimation using probit regression analysis found age of household head, size of arable land, membership to saving and lending groups, contact with extension, access to market information, agro-ecological potential, farmer perception and irrigation to be significant drivers of adoption. The study recommends increased promotional activities for the bio-fortified crops centred on the provision of well-structured agricultural support services coupled with nutrition-sensitive market information and training.

Publication

PARTICIPATION FINANCIERE DES USAGERS ET DEMANDE DE SOINS DE SANTE : UNE MISE EN EVIDENCE AU CAMEROUN

(AERC, 2026) NKOUMOU NGOA Gaston Brice

Cet article utilise les données EDS-MICS collectées en 2011 par l’Institut National de la Statistique pour analyser l’effet de la participation financière des usagers sur le choix du prestataire de soins de santé en estimant un modèle Probit multinomial. Les résultats montrent que le prix des soins est positivement associé à la probabilité de consulter les hôpitaux de référence et les centres de santé publics par rapport aux agents non médicaux. En revanche, l’accroissement du prix des soins diminue la probabilité de visiter un prestataire de soins du secteur privé au bénéfice des agents du secteur non médical. Les pouvoirs publics devraient encourager la consommation des soins de santé dans les structures de santé publiques en rapprochant davantage ces structures des ménages et en soutenant financièrement les charges supportées par les malades dans ces structures. Aussi, ils devraient s’assurer que la hausse des prix des soins chez les prestataires de soins privés s’accompagne d’une amélioration de la qualité des soins afin d’encourager leur consommation plutôt que les soins du secteur non médical

Publication

EFFET DU SYNDICALISME SUR L’EFFICIENCE TECHNIQUE DES ENTREPRISES EN CÔTE D’IVOIRE

(AERC, 2026) N’CHO LAUGBA ALINE DESIREE

Cette étude analyse les implications du syndicalisme sur l'efficience technique des entreprises en Côte d'Ivoire en utilisant des données collectées entre novembre 2013 et mars 2014 par la Cellule d’Analyse de Politiques Economiques du Cires (CAPEC). En particulier, l’étude détermine et compare les distributions d’efficience technique entre les entreprises syndiquées et non syndiquées, analyse l’effet du syndicalisme sur l’efficience technique, estime et décompose l’écart d’efficience technique entre les deux groupes d’entreprises. La méthode Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) est utilisée pour obtenir les scores d’efficience technique de chaque firme. Les scores obtenus servent d’abord à une analyse de dominance stochastique, puis à l’estimation de l’effet du syndicalisme sur l’efficience technique par la régression tronquée de la méthode DEA à double bootstrap et la décomposition de Oaxaca-Blinder (OB). L’analyse de la dominance stochastique montre que la présence d’employés syndiqués n’entraine pas plus d’efficience. L’effet moyen estimé par la méthode DEA tronquée à double bootstrap est positif mais faible. La décomposition OB montre aussi que la présence d’employés syndiqués n’implique pas que les entreprises soient plus efficientes. D’une part, ces résultats soutiennent l’idée que les syndicats et les entreprises coopèrent. D’autre part, ces résultats ont des implications pour les politiques publiques dans la mesure où contrôler la relation syndicats-employeurs permettrait d’optimiser les gains de productivité tirés de cette coopération.