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Recent Submissions

Addressing the Drivers of Food Security in Zambia During the COVID-19 Pandemic
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Bwalya, Richard; Chitalu, M. Chama-Chiliba
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been growing concerns about the impact of the pandemic on household food security (Nguyen et al., 2021; Cable et al., 2021; and Paslakis et al., 2020). Available studies show that economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affect members of the society, depending on factors such as socio-economic status, livelihood strategies, and access to markets. However, though informative, these studies tend to be based on small sample sizes, limited geographical coverage or both, and thus less useful for informing the design of effective recovery strategies that lead to more resilient national food systems (Bene et al. 2021). As a contribution to addressing this information gap, this paper investigated changes in household food security and its drivers in Zambia between the pre-pandemic and COVID-19 periods, with the objective of identifying significant drivers of food security and understand how they changed during the pandemic.
Health Expenditure Shocks Worsened Household Poverty Amidst COVID-19 in Uganda
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Mpuuga, Dablin; Nakijoba, Sawuya; Yawe, Bruno L.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic a lot changed regarding health care financing, both globally and nationally – in Uganda. Households faced unprecedented economic constraints and were forced to make hard expenditure choices including whether and how to spend on health care. Relatedly, the number of poor Ugandans increased from eight million in 2016/17 to 8.3 million in 2019/20, but it was still not clear how much of this impoverishment can be attributed to health expenditure shocks amidst the pandemic. In addition, Uganda has consistently fallen short on living up to the 2001 Abuja Declaration expectations of allocating at least 15% of her national budget each year to improving the healthcare system. The size of the health sector budget has been less than half of the declaration requirement for the past five years (see Figure 1). More precisely, the health sector budget as a share of the total budget and GDP has averaged 6.4% and 1.9% respectively in the financial years 2018/19 to 2022/23. The absence of a national health insurance scheme implies that a huge health care financing burden, is borne by the households who pay for health care directly by out-of-pocket payments (OOPs).
Effect of COVID-19 on Catastrophic Medical Spending and Forgone Care in Nigeria
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Edeh, Henry C.; Nnamani, Alexander Uchenna; Ozor, Jane O.
According to World Health Organization (WHO, 2005; 2010; 2017), countries need to fund their health systems through general revenues or premium contributions of social health insurance, complemented with government revenues, to achieve UHC and financial protection. However, government funding for health in Nigeria remains generally inadequate and many households still suffer financial hardship resulting from high OOP medical spending (Edeh, 2022). OOP medical spending in Nigeria is still up to 75%, which is well above the WHO recommended 15-20% for the achievement of financial protection (World Bank, World Development Indicator (WDI), 2021). This excess reliance on OOP spending for medical bills tempts households to forgo medical care, deepens unequal access to quality health care and exposes Nigeria households to incurring catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) (Amos et al., 2016). The COVID-19 pandemic may have worsened the situation, since it led to decline in household income. Hence, our study estimates the effect of COVID-19 on catastrophic medical spending and forgone medical care in Nigeria.
From Crisis to Coverage: Kenya's Healthcare Revolution
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Muriithi, Moses; Oleche, Martine; Kiarie, Francis; Mwangi, Tabitha
In Kenya, the majority of the households are unable to afford health care due to financial constraints as demonstrated by a high health finance vulnerability index. The existing health financing model that is heavily reliant on out-of-pocket payments, therefore, presents a significant barrier to healthcare access. The situation is especially critical when the country is faced with a health shock like the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Developing nations like Kenya are characterized by high poverty and unemployment rates further worsening the financial ability of the citizens to afford healthcare. To ensure equitable and quality healthcare access to all as envisaged in Sustainable Development Goal 3, Kenya must urgently reform its healthcare financing system, reducing the burden of out-of-pocket expenses and embracing more sustainable funding sources.
Catastrophic Effects of COVID-19 Health Expenditure Shocks and Multidimensional Poverty in Ghana: What Financing Mechanisms Mattered?
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Ayanore, Martin; Avenyo, Elvis; Osei, Davina
In Ghana, both direct and in-direct effects of the pandemic on health and health outcomes became prolonged during the second and third waves of the pandemic. Despite seemingly obvious disruption this brought to the health system and health care utilisation, there is paucity of published literature on the effects to household health expenditures among diverse socio-economic groups, including the poor. No known study has examined the magnitude and extent to which these possible payments, if they existed impacted the vulnerable, particularly poor households. Also, several key questions remain answered in the literature. To what extent has COVID-19 impacted on out-of-pocket (OOP) payments as a share of total household expenditures during the pandemic? What are the determinants of COVID-19-related CHEs? How did CHE shocks impact multi-dimensionally poor households and how did they mitigate such shocks? This policy brief answers these questions and examines the policy implications of financing mechanisms and their impact during health emergencies.
Food insecurity during COVID-19 in Cameroon: factors and adaptation strategies
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Atanase,Yene; Michelle, Eke Balla Sophie
Despite the introduction of agricultural policies, social safety net programmes, investment in agricultural infrastructure, and support measures for small farmers, the country continues to face high levels of food insecurity. Agricultural policies have been hampered by corruption, mismanagement of resources, and lack of monitoring and evaluation, leading to mixed results. Social safety net programmes have faced problems of exclusion and lack of transparency in the distribution of aid. Investment in agricultural infrastructure has been delayed and poorly maintained, limiting its impact on the food supply chain. Support measures for small-scale farmers have encountered obstacles such as lack of access to credit and appropriate training. These failures in the implementation of previous policies have serious consequences for the health, well-being, and socio-economic stability of the most vulnerable populations. It is, therefore, necessary to analyze the trajectory of household food insecurity in Cameroon, in order to better understand the factors and coping strategies that enable households to maintain or improve their food security over time. This may be useful for guiding policies and programmes aimed at reducing food insecurity and strengthening household resilience to shocks and crises. To this end, we used data from a two-round telephone survey of Cameroonian households. In the first round of the survey, 2680 households were interviewed between 1 and 28 February 2021. In the second round, 1861 households from the first round were interviewed between 21 June and 21 July 2021. Using these data, several factors can be identified: (i) the characteristics of the household, including the age of the head of household, the size of the household, the sector of activity of the head of household, insurance, and mutual insurance, access to the internet, area of residence (ii) shocks can be a loss of income, the death of a household member, loss of employment, an increase in the price of inputs, an increase in the price of food consumed. Households may also use a variety of coping strategies, such as savings, stored food, borrowing, government and NGO assistance, remittances, and loans.
Handwashing and Household Health Spending under Covid-19 in Cameroon
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Estelle, Ndonou Tchoumdop Michèle; Dumas,Tsambou André; Rodrigue, Nda’chi Deffo Rodrigue; Benjamin, Fomba Kamga
Despite its proven effectiveness in preventing several diseases, including COVID-19, the distribution of hand-washing systems was not at the forefront of the health measures put in place in Cameroon. At the time of COVID-19, the acquisition of handwashing devices at home was the responsibility of households because they were not part of the equipment distributed free of charge such as masks or hydroalcoholic gel. As a result, the acquisition of handwashing facilities required enormous financial resources for households whose incomes were already declining due to the adverse effects of the crisis. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of the adoption the handwashing device on household health expenditures in Cameroon during periods of severe restrictions related to COVID-19;
The Impact of COVID-19 on Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Nikiema, Pouirkèta Rita; Dedewanou, F. Antoine
The COVID-19 pandemic began in China in December 2019, and quickly spread to all countries in the world. Burkina Faso officially recorded its first infected case on March 9, 2020. To limit the spread of the virus, Burkina Faso like many countries worldwide followed the physical distancing, handwashing and face covering measures and has taken additional preventive measures including: the closure of schools, universities, public markets, restaurants and bars, places of worship, closure of borders (air, land and rail), etc. The restrictive measures impacted the living conditions of populations in different ways. For example, the closure of markets affected access to food in cities and among the poor due to the increase in prices: 25% of households in Burkina Faso were unable to access staple foods (INSD, 2020). This policy brief summarizes the findings from a study that assessed the persistence of households’ food insecurity in Burkina Faso during the Covid-19 pandemic, 2019-2022.
Effects of COVID-19 on Household Welfare in Benin: A Microsimulation Approach
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Honlonkou, Albert N.; Bassongui, Nassibou; Daraté, Corrine B.
Benin recorded the first confirmed case of COVID-19 on March 16, 2020 and the first death was recorded on April 6, 2020. The evolution of the pandemic was characterised by two waves: the first wave started by a rapidly growth of the number of infections and deaths during May to September 2020 before slowing down. The second wave spanned from June to August 2021, where both the number of new cases and deaths increased more than in the first wave.The Benin’s government responses to contain the spread of the pandemic were, but not limited to the closure of land borders, the closure of schools, the prohibition of public gatherings, restrictions on public transportation, the closure of restaurants and bars, systematic wearing of masks and hand disinfection. The COVID-19 testing convenient was made at a cost of 45 USD and the COVID-19 testing or vaccination was Mandatory to access all public services on September 13, 2021. All these policy responses to contain the pandemic may have many economic and social implications. We use a microsimulation approach to determine the effects of the pandemic on the households’ income and health expenditures. This policy brief presents the main findings and highlights some lessons for policy.
Dualism of the Health System in Benin: Collaboration or Competition?
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-26) Alakonon, Calixe Bidossessi; Gbeto, Josette Rosine; Bassongui, Nassibou; Alinsato, Alastaire Sèna
Like all countries, Benin faces a growing demand for health services due to population growth and health crises. Estimates from INStAD (National Institute of Statistics and Demography) show that the total population of the Republic of Benin was 11,884,127 inhabitants in 2019, with an annual intercensal increase of 3.5%. Though some improvements have been recorded these last decades, Benin still characterized by high general and specific mortality rates. According to the fifth Demographic and Health Survey in Benin (EDSB-V, 2017/2018), the infant and child mortality rates were 96‰, i.e., approximately one in ten children does not reach their fifth birthday. This is much higher than the rate of 25‰ to be reached in 2030 according to target 3.2 of the SDG3 objective. Additionally, the maternal mortality rate was 391 deaths per 100,000 live births, which is still far from the target of 70 percent thousand live births to be achieved with target 3.1 of the SDG3 goal by 2030 (INSAE and ICF, 2019). In terms of the supply of health services, the Beninese health system has recorded an increasing rate of entry of private health centres into the provision of health services. According to (SNIGS/MS, 2019), the number of private health centres (441) is almost half of the number of public health centers (912). This may lead to the possibility of competition between the two healthcare service delivery systems. To improve the performance of the Beninese health system, health authorities adopted measures to strengthen the collaboration between public and private health centres. Currently, there is a consultation framework between the public sector and the private sector. Statistics on the state of health in Benin show that the country is still one of the most vulnerable countries in terms of health, especially with the COVID-19 crisis. The dualism of healthcare system characterised by public and private healthcare suppliers has been subject of vigorous debate. A first stand of the debate argues that the existence of both public and private healthcare suppliers increases the competition in the sector while a second stand shows that the dualism is benefit because it promotes collaboration between private and public in a context of scarcity of resources. This policy note used pre- and post-Covid-19 data at healthcare providers’ level to examine the extent to which Covid-19 affected the performance of the Benin’s health system through the collaboration between public and private health centers. More importantly, the policy note answered to the following questions (i) What is the degree of collaboration between public and private health centres in Benin ? (ii) What is the degree of competition between public and private health centres in Benin ? (iii) Does competition affect the collaboration between the public and private health centers in Benin ?
SPS XXV Seminar Papers
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-22) Pritchett, Lant; Behrman, Jere R.; Mwabu, Germano; Lucas, Adrienne; Ipapa, Gerald
The African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) convenes Senior policy seminars to provide high-level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected based on topicality and contemporary interest to African policy-making. AERC Senior policy seminars are forums where policy makers and researchers engage in uninterrupted deliberations on a set of important issues considered significant to policy-making in Africa. The seminar format insulates the policy makers from pressures related to their responsibilities and thus, creates an environment for lively professional discourse on the selected issue. Aside from the specific aims of bringing researchers and policy makers together, the seminars are directly useful to AERC because they help identify research imperatives crucial to transforming Africa. They also improve prospects for policy involvement of the researchers and enhance AERC’s visibility in the policy community. Consequently, serving to highlight the growing capacity in the region for policy research and, overall, provide important feedback to AERC for its research and training programs. Exchange of country-specific experiences is particularly important in these seminars. The policy makers are normally identified for their interest in policy research issues and the level of seniority of the policy makers is generally right, leading to detailed discussions. Researchers are reasonably well balanced between Anglophone and Francophone, and attendance by Francophone policy makers is always encouraged. Policy makers report that they have found their experiences in the seminars very useful. The information exchanged helps them update their knowledge on current research and sieve out issues that are relevant to their duties. Some have even been embarrassed to find that during negotiations with international financial institutions, they have agreed to certain policies without understanding the full implications of the policy package. Seminars of this kind, while not intended or able to make the policy maker an economist, nevertheless afford the opportunity of considering the wider ramifications of their policy decisions. AERC is hugely indebted to Hon. Eliud Owalo, Cabinet Secretary, Ministry of Information Communications & Digital Economy, Kenya, who was the Guest of Honour at the official opening of the Seminar and delivered a keynote speech. The welcoming remarks were by Prof. Théophile Azomahou, Ag. Executive Director, AERC. The conference was also graced by Hon. Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u, EGH, Cabinet Secretary, National Treasury & Economic Planning, Kenya; Hon. Bangasi J. Bakosoo, Minister for Public Service & Human Resource Development, South Sudan; Hon. Kobygda Larba Issa, Ministere de l'Economie, des Finances et du Developpement, Burkina Faso; Dr. Wilson T. Banda, Governor, Reserve Bank of Malawi; Hon. Issa-Toure Salahaddine, Speaker of the National Assembly, Togo; H. E. Dr. Kerfalla Yansane, Ambassador of Guinea to the USA & Former Minister for Mining & Geology; and H.E. Dr. Kheswar Jankee, Ambassador of Mauritius in Russia. Other specials guests were Dr. Donald Kaberuka, former President of the African Development Bank (AfDB) and Her Royal Highness (HRH), Queen Nozizwe Mulela, Kingdom of Eswatini, among other high level policy makers including five (5) ministers, three (3) Ambassadors, a Governor of Central Bank, a Permanent Secretary, a Queen, and four (4) former ministers. This hybrid conference attracted a total of 598 participants (131 physical participants and 467 online participants) drawn from 43 countries across Africa. A total number of 1,909 registered online to participate in the event. The conference featured four presentations by thought leaders on the theme “Human Capital Development in Africa”. Human capital—the education, skills, and health of people — plays a pivotal role in the transformation of African economies. Sub-Saharan Africa scores the lowest of all the world’s regions on the World Bank’s Human Capital Index of about 0.40, a measurement of how well countries invest in the next generation of workers. This is despite the fact that access to sources of human capital in Africa, although still low, has increased significantly over the past two decades. Session One was on “A Lifecyle, Economy-Wide Framework for Human Capital in Africa”, presented by Prof. Lant Pritchett, Harvard University, USA. This session was chaired by Hon. Bangasi J. Bakosoo, Minister for Public Service & Human Resource Development, South Sudan. The paper was discussed by Dr. Adam Mugume, Executive Director, Bank of Uganda. Session Two was on “Human Capital Investments and Economic Growth in Africa” presented by Prof. Jere R. Behrman, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA. This session chair was H. E. Dr. Kheswar Jankee, Ambassador, Embassy of Mauritius in Russia and the paper was discussed by Dr. Sherillyn Raga, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK. The Third Session was on “Human Capital Accumulation in Africa: Drivers, Consequences, and Way forward”. This session was chaired by Hon. Kobygda Larba Issa, Ministere de l'Economie, des Finances et du Developpement, Burkina Faso. The paper was presented by Prof. Germano Mwabu, Department of Economics, University of Nairobi, Kenya. The discussant for the paper was Prof. Olu Ajakaiye, African Centre for Shared Development Capacity Building, Nigeria. The fourth paper was on “Education in Africa: Career Progressions, Gaps in Learning Outcomes and Responding to the Learning Crisis”. This session was chaired by Dr. Wilson T. Banda, Governor, Reserve Bank of Malawi. The paper was presented by Prof. Adrienne Lucas & Dr. Gerald Ipapa, Lerner College of Business & Economics, University of Delaware, USA. This paper was discussed by Dr. Elizabeth Nanziri, University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. The presenters produced high-quality papers, and the participants were very active, thus enabling us to produce the seminar’s policy recommendations that were shared as a communiqué with other African policy makers who did not find time to take part in this important event. We are grateful to all those who made the seminar a great success. Dr. Dianah Muchai, Manager, Research, Dr. Scholastica Odhiambo, Prof. Théophile Azomahou, Director of Training, who made valuable inputs into the preparation and implementation of the seminar. In equal measure, AERC very much appreciates the hard work of Senvy Maistry, Chief Communications Officer, Dr. Charles Owino, Publications Manager, Joel Mathia, ICT Administrator, and Lancer Wao, Communications and Publications Assistant in organizing the event. AERC also acknowledges with gratitude Dr. Tom Kimani, Lead Manager, Training and Dr. Mark Korir, Manager Training for their role as rapporteurs, as well as Pamela Kilwake, Sheila Lyaga, Hellen Muthoni, Margaret Mwangi, Natalie Chaponda and Jackson Ng’ang’a, who assisted with logistics. To these individuals, and the many others who were involved in one way or another, AERC extends its heartfelt appreciation.
Le Corridor de Maputo, l’Intégration Régionale et Continentale pour Atténuer l'Insécurité Alimentaire due aux Chocs Commerciaux de la Guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-07) Ngepah, Nicholas
Le Mozambique est confronté à une grave insécurité alimentaire, classé 94 ème au niveau mondial et 37 ème en Afrique1, avec une prévalence de sévérité de l'insécurité alimentaire supérieure à 40 % depuis 2017 et des épisodes de ruptures structurelles à la hausse très abruptes dans la série des prix alimentaires correspondant à la pandémie de Covid-19 et à la guerre Russo-Ukrainienne. Il s’ensuit que le Mozambique a un taux de dépendance aux importations céréalières élevé, allant de 40% à 50% depuis 2012.L'Afrique du Sud est le 59ème pays au monde en matière de sécurité alimentaire avec un score de 61,7 sur 100, et le deuxième en Afrique après le Maroc2. La prévalence de sévérité de l'insécurité alimentaire se situe entre 6,9 % et 8 %, avec un taux de dépendance aux importations de céréales compris entre 10 et 20 % depuis 2017. Malgré les notations élevées de l'Afrique du Sud au niveau national, il existe une insécurité alimentaire importante pour certains ménages. Environ 25 % des Sud Africains n’ont pas un accès adéquat à la nourriture en raison des inégalités socioc onomiques et structurelles3
Les Effets de la Crise Ukrainienne sur la Sécurité Alimentaire au Kenya et en Ethiopie: Options pour une Collaboration Commerciale Régionale
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-07) Geda, Alemayehu; Musyoka, Michael Phillip
L’économie mondiale a connu un ralentissement après deux crises consécutives: le début de la pandémie de Covid-19 en 2020 et la guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine qui s’est intensifiée en 2022, qui a prolongé la reprise de l’économie mondiale et empêché certains pays d’atteindre leur objectif de Faim Zéro en 2030. La guerre russo-ukrainienne a perturbé le commerce mondial des produits agricoles et non agricoles et provoqué une hausse générale des prix, notamment ceux du blé et des autres produits derivés du blé, le pétrole et les intrants agricoles. Bien que les prix mondiaux soient revenus à leur niveau d’avant la crise, leurs effets sur la sécurité alimentaire et le bien-être aux niveaux macro et microéconomiques se font encore sentir.
Les Échos d’Un Conflit: l’Analyse de l’Impact Potentiel de la Guerre Entre la Russie et l’Ukraine sur l’Afrique
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-07) M'boueke, Samson; Gurara, Daniel; Ngui, Dianah; Abebe, Shimeles
Le récent conflit entre la Russie et l’Ukraine a mis au premier plan les liens et les dépendances complexes dans l’ensemble de l’economie mondiale. En 2019, la Russie était le troisième plus grand producteur mondial d'énergie et était responsable d'environ un cinquième des exportations mondiales d'engrais. En outre, en 2021, la Russie et l’Ukraine représentaient ensemble 30 % des exportations mondiales de blé. Étant donné que près d’une cinquantaine de pays, en particulier les pays d’Afrique et d’Asie souffrant de déficits alimentaires, dépendent largement de la Russie et de l’Ukraine pour plus de 30 % de leur approvisionnement en blé, la guerre en cours présente de grands risques pour ces pays. Les perturbations de l’approvisionnement en blé, en engrais, en pétrole brut et en huile comestible peuvent avoir des effets en cascade, ayant un impact sur l’inflation et les trajectoires de croissance dans ces pays. Plus précisément, les prix du carburant et des céréales alimentaires représentent plus d’un tiers de l’indice des prix à la consommation dans de nombreux pays africains. La crise s’est déjà manifestée par des perturbations dans le commerce mondial, une flambée des prix des denrées alimentaires et du carburant, une instabilité macroéconomique et des défis sécuritaires accrus. Notre étude analyse les répercussions potentielles de la guerre sur 44 pays africains, en se concentrant sur la flambée mondiale des prix des denrées alimentaires, du pétrole et des engrais qui en résulte. Les résultats prévoient qu'à la suite de ces chocs sur les prix, la plupart des pays africains seront confrontés à des défis tels que la détérioration des termes de l'échange des matières premières, la hausse de l'inflation des prix à la consommation, la baisse du PIB réel et l'affaiblissement du pouvoir d'achat intérieur du dollar américain. De tels effets pourraient persister pendant plus de 3 ans. Tout en soulignant la vulnérabilité de l'Afrique aux fluctuations des prix mondiaux des produits de base, l'étude met également en lumière une opportunité importante: le possibilite pour l'Afrique de s'orienter vers une réduction de sa dépendance vis-a vis des importations et de promouvoir l'autosuffisance dans des secteurs clés. Ces considérations soulignent les implications plus larges des perturbations mondiales sur les économies africaines et le besoin urgent d’une trajectoire économique plus résiliente
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-06) OSADOLOR, NNEKA ESTHER
Nigeria, currently the most populous country in Africa, is home to a population of about 202 million people and one of the largest youth populations in the world (World Bank, 2019). In terms of growth, the country has recorded some impressive records over the years with an average GDP growth rate of 5.7% between 2006 and 2016 and currently estimated at 2.55% as at the fourth quarter of 2019 (NBS, 2019). However, contrary to the predictions of theory, in spite of her growth records, the informal sector in Nigeria has been burgeoning over the years. It is estimated that of the 77 million working age employed Nigerians, about 72 percent (56 million) are engaged in the informal sector, more than half of which is of low productivity (World Bank, 2015; NBS, 2018).Of this number, statistics show that more women were engaged in non-farm household enterprises than men; and women were predominant in retail trade as well as accommodation and food services compared to the men who were predominantly engaged in manufacturing, agriculture and construction (NBS, 2018).
The Impact of Women’s Decision-Making Power on the Quality of Life of Children under Five Years of Age in Benin
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-06) Bénédicte, Atchade Touwédé
Using data from Benin’s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS, 2018), we examined the impact of the purchasing power of women on the quality of life of children under the age of five years. More specifically, the study examined the impact of the decision-making power of the woman on the nutritional status of children and also of nutritional status on children’s immunization status, using a Multinomial Logit model with the households as the theoretical models. The results of our study generally show that when the woman is involved in decision making within her household, the nutritional status of children and their immunization status are satisfactory. Variables such as the age of the woman, her level of education, the level of education of the head of the household, the employment status of the head of the household, the main decision maker on the health of the children, the interval between child births, the level of wealth of the household and the sex of the child significantly improve the immunization status of children under the age of five years. However, variables such as the distance from a hospital, giving birth to twins and the order of birth have a negative impact on the immunization status of children. In regard to the nutritional status of children, variables such as the age of the woman, her level of education, the management of the income of the woman, the wealth level of the household, the fact that the child is a girl and the fact that the parents collectively decide on the health of the children lower the probability of the child being malnourished. However, variables such as birth order to the children, the fact that the children are twins and age of the child increase the probability of a child being malnourished. Initiatives and approaches therefore should be undertaken in order to increase the empowerment of women. The results of this study will have a positive impact on the nutritional status of women. In the short term, these recommendations should have an impact on the scholarly results of children, in the medium term on the labour market, and in the long term on sustained economic growth.
Order Flow-Based Microstructure Analysis of the Spot Exchange Rate in Zambia
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-02) Phiri, Sydney Chauwa; Chisha, Keegan; Chipili, Jonathan M.
Traditional macroeconomic fundamentals have challenges in explaining nominal exchange rate movements at short horizons partly due to their inability to capture expectations. Using data from the Bank of Zambia, and an order flow-based microstructure model within a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, this study establishes that order flows in the foreign exchange market in Zambia contain useful information in explaining daily exchange rate movements for the period 2016‒2020. Daily order flows of four out of 18 different customer types are found to contain information content with the interbank, manufacturing, households, as well as wholesale and retail being the most important. Cross-market order flows contain less information to explain daily movements in the kwacha/US dollar exchange rate. The policy lesson from the empirical results points to the central bank paying attention to the demand requirements by the four identified segments of the foreign exchange market that can potentially drive up the exchange rate and generate inflationary pressures.
Analysing the Relationship between Innovation and Productivity: A Case Study of Senegalese Manufacturing Industries
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-11-02) Aboubacry, Kane
The objective of this study was to profile innovative companies and to examine the link between innovation and productivity in manufacturing firms in Senegal. It took into account the interaction between various forms of innovation. Using a descriptive analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach and multivariate regression, the study found that although Senegal had a satisfactory level of technology adoption, an innovation deficit remained in the industrial sector, notably in research and development (R&D) activities. The study established that larger enterprises and firms that export their products are the most innovative. However, no significant relationship was found between the gender of the manager of the firm and the adoption of various forms of innovation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the choice to adopt innovation in an organization is positively related to improved labour productivity. In regard to the other types of innovation, no association was found. Our results suggest the need to develop strategies that integrate innovation in industrial policy in order to facilitate its adoption. They also suggest the need to undertake regular surveys of innovation in firms so as to better understand market trends, identify their strengths and weaknesses and facilitate decision making in terms of innovation.
The Devil is in the Details: On the Robust Determinants of Development Aid in G5 Sahel Countries
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-10-23) Bayale, Nimonka; Kouassi, Brigitte Kanga
This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study on the determinants of development aid at the regional level. This is done by adopting a panel Bayesian model averaging approach applied to the data of G5 Sahel countries, spanning the period 1980–2018. Our results suggest that, among the regressors considered, those reflecting terrorist attacks, trade stakes including military expenditure, socio-economic prospects and institutional conditions tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. The study explores the relationship between these regressors and foreign aid by employing the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), the continuously updated fully modified (CUP-FM), the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) long-run estimators, and the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test. The results highlight three concerns that may justify aid flows towards G5 Sahel countries: (a) peace and security considerations, (b) the economic interest of donors, and (c) recipient economic needs. The paper recommends that Sahel countries should strengthen international cooperation for security and peace, in compliance with goal 16 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development of the United Nations (UN) and goal 13 of the African Union’s (AU) Agenda 2063.
Identification and Estimation of Quadratic Food Engel Curves: Evidence from Cameroon
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-10-23) Wirba, Ebenezer Lemven
In this paper we estimate quadratic food Engel curves using data from the 2001, 2007 and 2014 Cameroon household consumption surveys. To address potential mismeasurement of regressors, we employ the heteroscedasticity-based identification strategy. Exploratory non-parametric analyses suggest quadratic forms for the food Engel curves. The regression results in this study confirm these patterns. At lower spending levels, unit increases in total spending increase the food budget share, while at levels above the spending thresholds unit increases in total spending reduce the food budget share. We also find evidence of major shifts in the quadratic food Engel curves over time. These findings suggest that reducing taxes on food items would be more beneficial to poor households.