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1. Policy Briefs Concise summaries that present research findings and policy recommendations on key economic issues to inform policymakers and stakeholders.2. Research Papers In-depth studies and scholarly articles that explore various aspects of economic theories and empirical research, contributing to academic discourse and understanding.3. Working Papers Preliminary reports on ongoing research that are circulated to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication.4. Theses and Dissertations: CPP Thesis: Rigorous academic research focused on pertinent policy issues, typically by candidates of the Collaborative PhD Program. CMAP Thesis: Scholarly works by Master's candidates involved in the Collaborative Master's in Economics Program, showcasing original research in the Economics sector. CMAAE Thesis: Advanced research endeavors by Master's students under the Collaborative Master's in Agricultural and Applied Economics, contributing to knowledge in agricultural economics and related fields CMAAE Thesis5. Senior Policy Seminar papers African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) holds a Senior Policy Seminar annually. This conference is hosted by AERC and sometimes jointly with a partner. AERC convenes this forum to provide high level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected on the basis of topicality and contemporary interest to African policy making.6. Other Publications A diverse range of documents including, but not limited to, conference papers, book chapters, and research updates that do not fall under the conventional categories.
Recent Submissions
Publication
Impact de l'adoption de Semence Améliorées sur la Productivité du Maïs au Bénin
(AERC, 2026) Christelle Yèba AKPO
Le maïs occupe une place prépondérante dans le secteur agricole du Bénin, car il est largement consommé et représente une source potentielle de devises pour le pays. L'objectif est donc d'analyser les effets de l'adoption de variétés de semences améliorées sur la productivité au Bénin. Plus précisément, il vise à (1) identifier les facteurs qui influencent les décisions des agriculteurs d'adopter des variétés de maïs améliorées, et
(2) estimer l'impact de l'adoption de semences améliorées sur les rendements de maïs. Les données utilisées sont des données secondaires issues de la base de données du Programme d'analyse des politiques agricoles de l'Institut national de recherche agricole du Bénin (PAPA/INRAB) et portent sur un échantillon aléatoire de 356 producteurs de maïs. En utilisant le modèle de régression par changement de régime pour contrôler les biais de sélection potentiels et les problèmes d'hétérogénéité non observée, il est démontré que l'accès au crédit, la quantité d'engrais utilisée, le soutien technique et l'adhésion à une organisation d'agriculteurs font partie des facteurs qui déterminent l'adoption de variétés de maïs améliorées par les agriculteurs. En outre, les résultats montrent clairement que l'adoption de variétés de semences de maïs améliorées est associée à une meilleure productivité chez les adoptants, ce qui suggère que les efforts visant à diffuser ces variétés auprès des non-adoptants devraient être poursuivis afin de maximiser les avantages inhérents à cette innovation.
Publication
Impact of The Adoption of Improved Seeds on Maize Productivity in Benin
(AERC, 2026) Christelle Yèba AKPO
Maize occupies a prominent place in Benin's agricultural sector in that it is widely consumed and represents a potential source of foreign exchange for the country. The objective here is therefore to analyse the effects of adopting improved seed varieties on productivity in Benin. More specifically, it aims to (1) identify the factors that influence farmers' decisions to adopt improved maize varieties, and
(2) estimate the impact of adopting improved seeds on maize yields. The data used are secondary and extracted from the database of the Agricultural Policy Analysis Programme of the National Institute for Agricultural Research of Benin (PAPA/INRAB) and cover a random sample of 356 maize producers. Using the regime-switching regression model to control for potential selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity issues, it is shown that access to credit, the amount of fertiliser used, technical support and membership of a farmers' organisation are among the factors that determine the adoption of improved maize varieties by farmers. Furthermore, the results clearly show that the adoption of improved maize seed varieties is associated with improved productivity among adopters, suggesting that efforts to disseminate improved varieties to non-adopters should be continued to maximise the benefits inherent in this innovation.
Publication
THE ROLE OF BANK RELATIONSHIPS IN INTERBANK LIQUIDITY DISTRIBUTION AND PRICING IN MALAWI
(AERC, 2026) Esmie Koriheya Kanyumbu (PhD)
Interbank markets are classified as unique markets because, unlike in other financial markets, trading in these markets depends heavily on the trust that market players have for one another. Consequently, interbank markets are associated with strong relationships between banks. Such relationships are expected to affect pricing of liquidity in these markets. Along these lines, this study aimed to investigate price determination in interbank market by precisely paying attention to the role played by bank relationships. The strength of relationships is proxied by the frequency of borrowing and lending by specific banks in this market. The study investigates how relationships affect the rate at which such loans are provided. The study uses the structure of the Malawi interbank market as a case study for interbank markets in low-income countries. It applies quarterly bank-level data spanning from 2010:1 to 2024:4. Results of the study show that building borrowing relationships (where a bank is a borrower) is associated with higher borrowing costs. Unlike frequent borrowers, who are punished by borrowing at higher rates, the study finds out that this market favours frequent lenders. Precisely, frequent lenders get higher rates when lending liquidity in this market. In addition, in line with outstanding literature on interbank markets, it is found that risky banks are charged higher rates when borrowing from the interbank market, confirming the market disciplining role of this market. However, risky banks also demand higher rates when lending liquidity in this market. It is therefore concluded that interbank market relationships affect pricing of banking system liquidity. This implies that such relationships could hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy by limiting the impact of central banks’ efforts aiming at managing the market-wide interbank rates. The results of this study, therefore, provide guidance to central banks, especially in low-income countries, in their interbank monitoring role, especially in line with the assessment of the transmission of monetary policy.
Publication
Gender And Resource Extraction Decisions In Common-Pool Resources:A Lab-In-The-Field Experiment Among Pastoralists In Ethiopia
(AERC, 2026) Desalegn Amlaku, Gugissa (PhD)
This study examines the impact of gender composition on sustainable resource extraction decisions among Borana pastoralists in Southern Ethiopia. Using a common-pool grazing experiment with 225 participants, groups of five participants were randomly assigned varying female representations: two, three, and five females. The all-female groups served as a reference. Participants were tasked to decide on their level of pasture extraction from two hypothetical grazing rangelands under shared access, with varying pasture availability conditions based on their prior aggregate extraction, necessitating trade-offs between short-term self-interest and long-term collective sustainability. The results reveal that the two-female groups consistently outperformed other group compositions in cooperating for the sustainable use of the shared resources across the three resource availability conditions. When pasture was abundant, males in the two-female groups were more cooperative, choosing lower grazing intensity, whereas males in the three-female groups behaved uncooperatively, selecting higher grazing intensity and thus contributing to unsustainable extraction. This suggests that in female-dominated groups, males may resist female dominance by over-extracting resources. In contrast, males in the two-female groups cooperated more, leading to more sustainable outcomes. During relatively pasture-scarce times, cooperation was higher, with two-female groups exhibiting the most sustainable behavior. Under pasture scarcity, males in the two-female groups continued to cooperate more, while males in the three-female groups behaved uncooperatively. The findings emphasize that gender composition affects cooperative dynamics, with mixed-gender groups performing better under resource-scarce conditions. However, female dominance can trigger uncooperative behavior from males, undermining sustainability. For policymakers, the results imply that promoting the participation of women in shared resource management groups is a viable strategy for enhancing sustainability; female dominance, however, can also undermine long-term resource management goals.
Publication
Impact De L'irrigation Sur La Sécurité Alimentaire Et La Nutrition Chez Les Riziculteurs Du Bénin
(AERC, 2026) Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide
L'investissement dans le développement de l'irrigation est une priorité de la politique agricole au Bénin depuis 1960. Cela a conduit à la mise en place de plusieurs systèmes d'irrigation dans le pays. Cette étude vise à évaluer l'impact de l'irrigation sur la sécurité alimentaire et la nutrition chez les producteurs de riz au Bénin. Elle s'appuie sur des données d'enquête recueillies auprès de 690 producteurs de riz, dont 150 irrigants et 540 non-irrigants, dans la municipalité de Malanville au Bénin. Un modèle de régression à commutation endogène a été utilisé pour contrôler les biais de sélection et les problèmes d'endogénéité liés à la variable d'adoption. L'accès au crédit, aux services de vulgarisation, la fréquence des organisations paysannes, l'accès aux médias, la participation au marché et la distance par rapport au système d'irrigation ont été les principaux déterminants de la participation au système d'irrigation. Les résultats ont également montré un impact positif de l'irrigation sur la diversité alimentaire, le score de consommation alimentaire et l'indice de masse corporelle. Cela confirme le potentiel
Publication
L'argent Mobile Et La Capacité Des Ménages A Faire Face Aux Chocs Sanitaires En Afrique : Le Cas De Madagascar.
(AERC, 2026) Gbêtondji Melaine Armel Nonvide
La promotion de l’utilisation de l’argent mobile semble être un moyen important d’améliorer l’inclusion financière et la capacité des ménages à faire face aux chocs sanitaires. Cette étude vise à analyser l’impact de l’utilisation de l’argent mobile sur la capacité des ménages à faire face aux chocs sanitaires à Madagascar. Nous avons également examiné l’impact différentiel sur les groupes défavorisés tels que les femmes, les personnes peu instruites et les populations rurales. La base de données FinScope sur l'inclusion financière a été utilisée. À l'aide d'un modèle probit instrumental, les résultats révèlent que l'utilisation de l'argent mobile augmente la capacité des ménages à faire face aux chocs sanitaires d'environ 44,8 %. Les principaux mécanismes d'adaptation comprennent le recours à l'épargne et l'aide d'amis ou de la famille. Les résultats révèlent également que l'utilisation de l'argent mobile favorise les ménages des zones urbaines par rapport à ceux des zones rurales. Les femmes en ont davantage bénéficié que les hommes. Dans l'ensemble, ces conclusions pourraient éclairer les décideurs politiques sur la manière d'améliorer l'inclusion financière des groupes défavorisés et de réduire la vulnérabilité aux chocs sanitaires en Afrique.
Publication
FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NILE BASIN: THE IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSBOUNDARY WATER USE EXTERNALITY
(AERC, 2026) Tewodros Negash Kahsay
The impact of climate change on food security in the Nile basin is evaluated using a multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. The analysis employs the GTAP 10 database and the GTAP-W model that differentiates between rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The economy-wide impact of climate change in 2050 is evaluated for the B1 global emissions scenario from two global circulation models (CSIRO and MIROC). The study applies two scales of analysis – riparian and basin-scale analysis. The results reveal that climate change induces adverse effects on the state of food security in the basin through its impact on the ‘food availability’ and ‘access to food’ dimensions of food security. The results unequivocally disclose that the basin-scale analysis that underpins basin-wide cooperative and efficient management of the water and other resources of the Nile basin, with water use externalities internalized provides a significant opportunity to better absorb climate shocks compared to the riparian-scale analysis.
Publication
STATE FRAGILITY, INCLUSIVE GROWTH, AND FINANCIAL INCLUSION: NEW EVIDENCE FROM AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
(AERC, 2026) Joseph Keneck-Massil; Alphonse Noah
Fragile states account for a disproportionate share of global poverty and are projected to host 60 per cent of the world’s poor by 2030, yet the mechanisms by which policy interventions can mitigate fragility’s developmental costs remain poorly understood. This paper investigates whether financial inclusion moderates the adverse effects of state fragility on inclusive growth in Africa. Drawing on panel data for 40 African economies over 2006–2024 and employing the two-step system GMM estimator, we find that state fragility significantly depresses inclusive growth, while financial inclusion exerts a nearly offsetting positive effect in the long run. Critically, financial inclusion moderates fragility’s adverse impact: beyond a threshold of 0.36 on the normalised financial inclusion index, fragility’s growth-suppressing effect is fully neutralised. Decomposing financial inclusion into penetration, availability, and usage reveals that active engagement with financial services drives this moderation more powerfully than mere account ownership or infrastructure presence. These findings are robust to alternative measures of inclusive growth and income-level heterogeneity. The results suggest that expanding financial inclusion, particularly through digital finance and usage-oriented interventions, constitutes a powerful instrument for mitigating the developmental costs of fragility in Africa.
Publication
Credit Access and Adoption of ICT by Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Togo
(AERC, 2026) Yaovi Innocento Mawuena; Guy Martial Takam Fongang; Guerlais Noël Bouopda
The study aims to analyse the impact of credit access on the adoption of ICT by Small and Medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in Togo. To achieve the objective, the study uses the general enterprises census data collected by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED) in 2018 and a propensity score matching method. The results globally show that credit access has a positive and significant impact on ICT adoption. Access to credit increases the probability of Togolese SMEs adopting ICT by about 0.032-0.234, 0.025-0.157 and 0.020-0.147 percentage point for computer, internet, and e-business adoption, respectively. Credit access has a positive and significant impact on ICT adoption for all types of enterprises except for medium enterprises. The study therefore suggests increasing access to credit to increase ICT adoption among Togolese SMEs.
Publication
Financial Inclusion and Market Development in South Sudan
(AERC, 2026) Dr Samson Taban Joseph; Jacqueline NB Ajongo.
This study aims at exploring the needs and importance of financial inclusion in relation to socio-economic development in the context of South Sudanese society. To ascertain gender gaps in regard to financial services, examine the state of financial infrastructure in rural areas and investigate policies and regulatory framework on financial inclusion and market development in South Sudan. The study highlights the significant findings which show that financial inclusion is less developed in South Sudan compared to East African countries. These findings also spotlight the need for further research but also suggest that policy and regulatory frameworks aimed at fostering more inclusive financial markets should consider the structural characteristics of financial inclusion and market development to ensure effective outcomes for the consumers and regulators. However, Financial Inclusion is a priority worldwide because it supports inclusive growth and achieves sustainable Development Goals. Moreover, South Sudan now faces serious economic downturn by its high dependence on oil which heighten the state of fragility although it’s slowly recovering from the conflicts. Hence recently there is a progress in oil exports boosting GDP projection from 2025-26 despite the challenges related to conflict in the Sudan which recurrently disrupted export of crude oil through Port Sudan. Nevertheless, political instability, high debt, climate shocks, and weak governance hinder diversification and create large humanitarian needs and affect service delivery such as infrastructural development. Furthermore, studies showed that financial inclusion is positively related to the income and educational levels of the population. Studies also reveal that gender disparity, age, and lack of appropriate policies and regulatory framework can play negative role in harnessing financial inclusion in the country. The study carried out analytical and comparative analysis based on primary sources such as national legal frameworks and secondary sources such as books, websites, journals, articles and research papers etc.
Consequently, the study recommends Bank of South Sudan BoSS to develop under-developed financial sector, formulate enabling policies e.g. NFIS, legal and regulatory environment and expand diversification of financial products and services.
Publication
Effects of Human Capital (Health) on Economic Growth in Africa: Role of Trade, Analysis by Gender Health and Income Level
(AERC, 2026) Essotanam Mamba; Afi Balaki
The paper examines the effects of human capital (health) on economic growth by highlighting the complementary role of trade, the effect of women’s and men’s health on growth, and comparing the effect of health on growth in low-income countries (LICs) to that in lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) between 1980 and 2021 in Africa. The instrumental variables (IV) approach with fixed effects (IV-FE) is used to control for the endogeneity issue, such as omitted variables and error measurement. The findings reveal that health significantly enhances growth in Africa, but only in LMICs. Also, health of both male and female significantly increase growth in Africa. Furthermore, adult survival is more relevant for growth than life expectancy. Finally, the marginal effect (ME) of life expectancy at birth increases with the level of trade above a certain threshold; above the level of trade equal to 38.745 % of GDP this ME becomes positive and statistically significant. Also, the ME of adult survival growth rate increases with the level of trade above and below certain thresholds; between the interval 71.952 and 136.319, the ME of adult survival growth rate is positive and statistically significant. These findings imply that health improvements and better alignment of health and trade policies are needed to stimulate growth in Africa.
Publication
Effects Of Trade Policies on External Trade Performances of Ecowas Countries (1996- 2017)
(AERC, 2026) Essotanam Mamba; Afi Balaki
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional economic community supported by the African Union, has adopted a common trade policy through the implementation of the Trade Liberalization Scheme (TLS) instituted in 1979. One of the essential steps of this TLS is the entry into force of the ECOWAS common external tariff on January 1, 2015, a necessary step for the integration of the countries of this Community into the African Continental Free Trade Area. The objective of the paper is to analyze the effects of trade policies on foreign trade performance of ECOWAS countries between 1996-2017. Unlike most studies on the subject, the paper uses a new continuous trade policy index captured by the implementation of the TLS to analyze the direct and indirect effects of trade policies on manufacturing exports and imports. Controlling for the endogeneity of the variables of interest, the findings indicate that the TLS implementation significantly contributes to the growth of imports but much more exports. These findings are robust to different estimation techniques. Furthermore, the analysis of the multiplicative interaction model reveals that the effects of TLS on manufacturing trade performance increase with financial development and the rate of cellular mobile subscriptions. These findings have implications for economic policies.
Publication
Export Duration in West Africa, an Analysis of Economic Integration Agreements’ Effects
(AERC, 2026) Adou Niango Sika Antoine Brice
The main objective of economic trade agreements is to reduce trade costs and stimulate economic growth through trade. Using data over the period 1962 to 2019, this paper examines the contribution of economic integration agreements on exports duration in West Africa. The results show that economic integration agreements influence positively trade survival in West Africa. Nevertheless, the average time of trade survival is short, which is compatible with results found in the literature. Results in this study show that when partner countries are part of a regional economic communities, their trade relationship survives longer than other countries outside the community. Data at a more disaggregated level also confirmed that trade duration is short-lived. The findings provide insights to policy makers at the era of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement as well as at the renewal of the AGOA agreements. More importantly, when negotiating agreements, the region can show more collaboration and level ground for more investments in sectors where these countries have comparative advantages.
Publication
Impact De La Fécondité Sur L’Autonomisation Économique De La Femme Au Bénin
(AERC, 2026) Josette Rosine Aniwuvi Gbeto; Véronique Houngue
Cette étude analyse l’effet de la fécondité sur l’autonomisation économique de la femme au Bénin captée par la participation au marché du travail et l'autonomie décisionnelle. La méthode des variables instrumentales est appliquée pour l'analyse de l'effet de la fécondité sur la participation des femmes au marché du travail et un modèle de probit ordonné avec sélection, pour analyser l’effet de la fécondité sur l'autonomie décisionnelle. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’enquête démographique et de santé (EDS) conduite au Bénin en 2018. Un échantillon de 8762 femmes ayant au moins deux enfants et âgées de 15-49 ans est utilisé pour la participation des femmes au marché du travail et un échantillon de 11756 femmes âgées de 15-49 ans pour l'autonomie décisionnelle. Les résultats montrent qu'une augmentation du nombre d'enfants de la femme d'un point, réduit la probabilité que la femme participe au marché du travail en moyenne de 0,174 en général, et en particulier réduit respectivement la probabilité que la femme participe aux activités de types professionnels de 0,0117 ; les services de 0,0389 et le commerce de 0,154. En revanche, l'augmentation du nombre d'enfants d'un point augmente la probabilité que la femme fasse des travaux du secteur agricole de 0,168. Par ailleurs, une augmentation du nombre d'enfants d'une unité, diminue la probabilité que la femme prenne des décisions par rapport : aux achats importants du ménage, à sa santé et aux visites à ses parents respectivement de 4,14 ; 2,97 et 2,34 points de pourcentage. Nous remarquons une forte hétérogénéité dans l'effet de la fécondité sur l'autonomie décisionnelle de la femme entre le milieu urbain et le milieu rural. Ces résultats suggèrent que les politiques publiques en matière de réduction de fécondité, de participation des femmes au marché du travail et d’autonomisation des femmes, devraient prendre en compte les différences entre les milieux de vie de la femme et celles entre les secteurs d'activités.
Publication
La Qualité De L'éducation En Afrique Subsaharienne Francophone : Une Analyse Des Facteurs De Réussite Dans L'enseignement Primaire, Sur La Base Des Données PASEC 2019
(AERC, 2026) Hamidou Bocar Sall
Cette étude établit un lien entre les résultats scolaires des élèves, mesurés par leurs notes en lecture et en mathématiques en sixième année du primaire, leur situation socio-économique et leur environnement scolaire dans six pays de l'UEMOA (Bénin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Sénégal et Togo). Afin de prendre en compte la structure hiérarchique des données, nous adoptons une méthode d'analyse multiniveaux (MLA). Les données utilisées ont été collectées par le PASEC dans le cadre d'une enquête internationale sur la qualité de l'éducation menée en 2019. Les résultats montrent une inégalité d'apprentissage significative entre les écoles dans les systèmes éducatifs des dix pays, avec un coefficient de corrélation intraclasse (CCI) élevé. Il apparaît également que le redoublement, l'âge, le sexe, l'alphabétisation des parents, le statut de l'école (publique ou privée) et la disponibilité des infrastructures scolaires sont les principaux facteurs expliquant la variation des résultats des élèves. Les implications politiques sont discutées.
Publication
Teachers, Schools and Child Development in Benin
(AERC, 2026) Marius K. Sossou; F. Antoine Dedewanou
This study investigates the relative importance of teachers and schools’ effects, with a specific focus on female teachers, on the cognitive skills (math and reading test scores) among the 2nd year primary school pupils in Benin. We use data from the 2014 Program for the Analysis of Education Systems of CONFEMEN (PASEC). Our findings reveal that female teachers demonstrate a positive influence on students' cognitive skills, particularly in math and reading. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers that students with higher math scores benefit significantly from female teachers, particularly female students. We explore the underlying mechanisms of these results, demonstrating that female teachers invest more effort in teaching and employ a mix of traditional and modern teaching practices. These findings have important policy implications, suggesting the need to promote and support female educators in primary schools and to further investigate the specific teaching practices that contribute to improved cognitive skills.
Publication
Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Risky Home Production: The Case of South Africa
(AERC, 2026) Yoseph Getachew
This paper develops and calibrates a heterogeneous-agent Aiyagari-type model tailored to a developing economy. The model incorporates stochastic home production, endogenous human capital investment, and incomplete capital markets. In contrast to standard incomplete-market models that typically predict excessive capital accumulation, the framework shows that when home and market goods are complements and home production is subject to idiosyncratic risk, households’ smooth consumption primarily through intertemporal time reallocation rather than intertemporal saving. As a result, labor and resources shift away from the market sector, leading to lower equilibrium capital accumulation. The model is calibrated to an emerging African economy and used to evaluate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal policy when households face shocks to both market productivity and home production. A five-percentage-point increase in the income tax rate reduces market capitalisation, output, and investment in human capital. The policy also lowers income and consumption inequality, but increases wealth inequality. These results highlight the importance of sectoral risk and household time allocation for evaluating fiscal policy in developing economies.
Publication
Bribery And Tax Evasion: Does The Level Of Financial Constraint Matter?
(AERC, 2026) Oludele Folarin
Domestically mobilised resources in African countries are low, and the current levels are inadequate to finance projects required to achieve sustainable development goals by 2030. One of the ways by which African governments could increase domestically mobilised revenue is by reducing tax evasion. This study examines the effect of bribery and credit constraints on tax evasion (both the incidence and extent) by firms in SSA, using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) for 26 countries. Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit regression estimation technique was employed to determine the effect of bribery on the incidence of tax evasion. The Instrumental Tobit regression estimation technique was employed to estimate the effect of bribery on the extent of tax evasion. The results emanating from this study show that tax evasion is higher among firms that pay bribes. Also, the positive effect of bribery on tax evasion holds across the different levels of credit constraints. However, the effect is higher among firms that are fully credit-constrained. The results also show that countries with more robust institutional qualities, such as government effectiveness, the rule of law and control of corruption, had a lesser positive effect of bribery on tax evasion. The study findings reinforce the idea that low tax revenue in African countries is self-inflicted by government actions, resulting in weak civil services and institutions. Also, the study's findings indicate that improvement in access to finance goes beyond its role in enhancing economic growth and poverty reduction to include discouragement of tax evasion behaviour by economic agents.
Publication
The Effect of Non-Farm Activities on Rural Household Consumption in Sudan: Evidence from Endogenous Switching Regression Model
(AERC, 2026) Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali; Ebaidalla Mahajoub Ebaidalla
Despite the growing prevalence of non-farm activities (NFA) in rural Sudan, their implications for household consumption and welfare remain underexplored. This study investigates the determinants of rural household participation in NFAs and assesses their impact on household consumption levels in Sudan. The research utilizes data from the 2015 Sudan National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and applies an endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to address potential selection bias and endogeneity. This methodology jointly estimates the decision to participate in NFAs and the corresponding consumption outcomes for participant and non-participant households.
The results show that household head gender, education, age, media access, credit access, rain-fed irrigation, farm income, distance to urban centers, and regional location significantly impact both NFA participation and household consumption. Treatment effect estimates indicate that NFA engagement significantly increases total and food consumption, with results consistent across wage employment and self-employment types. This study makes key contributions to the literature by being the first to empirically assess the impact of NFAs on household consumption in Sudan. Additionally, it provides novel insights into the heterogeneous welfare outcomes of wage-based versus self-employment NFAs in rural areas.
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Mobile Money Technology Adoption in Uganda: The Role of Social Networks
(AERC, 2026) Alfred Kechia Mukong; Lwanga Elizabeth Nanziri
Innovative financial technologies are becoming a pathway to inclusive economic participation for individuals and firms. This paper presents evidence on how individuals’ decisions to adopt such technology, particularly mobile money, relate to the adoption choices of their network of family and friends. Using the Uganda Financial Inclusion Insights (FII) Tracker Survey for 2013, we find that mobile money adoption decisions are closely linked to the network of an individual’s family and friends. Networks are defined in two ways: by the source of information on mobile money services and by the average number of adoptions in one’s neighbourhood. Like many other studies, we find a positive correlation between mobile money adoption and the adoption decisions of one’s network. The correlation persists across the different measures of networks and even when we control for unobservable (neighbourhood fixed effects) characteristics. However, the magnitude of the point estimates decreases as the model becomes saturated. Despite having more mobile money users than adopters in our sample, we do not find evidence that networks can stifle technology adoption due to the possibility of piggybacking on early adopters within the network.