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1. Policy Briefs
Concise summaries that present research findings and policy recommendations on key economic issues to inform policymakers and stakeholders.
2. Research Papers
In-depth studies and scholarly articles that explore various aspects of economic theories and empirical research, contributing to academic discourse and understanding.
3. Working Papers
Preliminary reports on ongoing research that are circulated to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication.
4. Theses and Dissertations:
CPP Thesis: Rigorous academic research focused on pertinent policy issues, typically by candidates of the Collaborative PhD Program. CMAP Thesis: Scholarly works by Master's candidates involved in the Collaborative Master's in Economics Program, showcasing original research in the Economics sector. CMAAE Thesis: Advanced research endeavors by Master's students under the Collaborative Master's in Agricultural and Applied Economics, contributing to knowledge in agricultural economics and related fields CMAAE Thesis
5. Senior Policy Seminar papers
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) holds a Senior Policy Seminar annually. This conference is hosted by AERC and sometimes jointly with a partner. AERC convenes this forum to provide high level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected on the basis of topicality and contemporary interest to African policy making.
6. Other Publications
A diverse range of documents including, but not limited to, conference papers, book chapters, and research updates that do not fall under the conventional categories.

Recent Submissions

Publication

Unlocking the Potential of Food SMEs to Boost Income and Food Security in South Africa

(AERC, 2026) Selma T. Karuaihe; Wegayehu Fitawek; Enoch Owusu-Sekyere; Herbert Ntuli; Hettie C. Schönfeldt

From the business side, women dominate the food SME sector in South Africa, with majority being Black South Africans. • The type of food SME (i.e., spaza shops, restaurants and fruit and vegetables) has a significant impact on income1. ● SMEs operating restaurants generate the highest weekly income, making cooked foods more profitable than selling fruits and vegetables, which is the least profitable of all. ● In terms of food security, nearly half (48%) of households had an adequate diet, consuming more than six food groups in the study area. ● The food security status of the household was determined by multiple socio-economic factors, including the household age, sex, education level, family size, ethnicity, number of working adults, household income and food expenditure. ● The informal food markets play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, with over 60% of consumers purchasing fruits and vegetables from street vendors. ● Spaza shops serve as key sources of grains, nuts, legumes, dairy, poultry, and meat, making them essential for food accessibility and affordability in low-income communities. • Policy recommendations to support SMEs selling fruits and vegetables should include training on proper handling, cooling, and temperature management of fresh produce

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Strengthening Rural Ugandan Diets Through Improved Market Food Environments

(AERC, 2026) Racheal Namulondo; Bernard Bashaasha; Rosemary Isoto Emegu; Edgar Agaba

In addition to own production, rural populations in SSA are acquiring an increasing part of their food from local markets, making the market food environment an important contributor to household diet diversity. • The limited food variety that characterizes rural food markets, in Uganda, translates to limited diet diversity with households characteristically consuming items from two staple food groups only. • Availability of a variety of food in nearby/village markets positively influences rural household food purchase diversity. • Policy support should encourage increased - production of non-staple foods for the rural markets and market participation. But since rural households depend largely on staple foods, interventions should be focused on increasing production and sell of nutrient-dense staples, for instance, throu

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Financial Development and Income Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa : The Role of Institutional Quality

(AERC, 2026) Soumtang Bimé Valentine; Pierre Christian Tsopmo

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of institutional quality on the financial development- income inequality nexus in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end, we estimate a dynamic panel model using data from thirty-three (33) SSA countries between 1990 and 2019 employing the generalized method of moments in system. To capture financial development, we use its fourth dimensions namely depth, efficiency, access and stability, and we construct a composite index using principal component analysis. We also use institutional quality indicators. The results show that the poor quality of institutions in SSA countries reduce the effectiveness of financial development in terms of income inequality overall. However, this effect is mitigated by financial efficiency. These results are consistent with the robustness tests. These results call for the implementation of programs to strengthen institutional quality in SSA countries.

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Analysis of the Impact of Irrigation on the Nutritional Status of Rice Farming Households in the Iffou Region of Côte D'ivoire

(AERC, 2026) Allou Nazaire N'DRI; Assi J.C. KIMOU

This paper investigates the impact of irrigation on the nutritional status of rice farming households in M'Bahiakro, which is an irrigated rice-producing area. It utilizes data from a survey of rice farmers conducted by the Ivorian Centre for Economic and Social Research (CIRES) and the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). The empirical strategy first estimates a Probit model to determine drivers of participation in the irrigation system. Second, it assesses the impact of irrigation on rice production and rice income using an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR). Descriptive statistics show that producers participating in the irrigation system have higher productivity levels and higher income compared to non-participant farmers. Similarly, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) is higher among households that use irrigation compared to non-participating households. The results of the probit model estimation show that education, training, extension services, off-farm activities, and membership in an agricultural cooperative are the main determinants of participation in irrigation. The results of the impact assessment indicate no significant effect of the irrigation system on food diversity. The impact estimation on rice production and household income shows that participation in the irrigation system has a positive effect on both income and rice production for participants. These findings reveal a positive effect of irrigation on beneficiaries, which implies an interest in the irrigation program for policymakers and rice farmers.

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How Effective is Tackling Illicit Financial Flows in Africa? Evidence from Spatial Panel Analysis

(AERC, 2026-02) Alain Babatound´e; Moustapha Lawani

Sub-Saharan African countries experience high levels of illicit financial flows (IFFs), which significantly undermine domestic resource mobilization. Recognizing the transnational nature of IFFs, some Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have adopted anti-IFF instruments to address these challenges. This study inventories regional anti-IFF policies and evaluates their effectiveness in reducing IFFs and enhancing domestic resource mobilization. Expanding the World Bank Residual approach to include remittances, we estimate total IFFs at USD 3,646.7 billion (15.4% of GDP) between 1980 and 2021. Using a spatial panel model, we assess two anti-IFF instruments—anti-corruption and anti-criminality—within Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), accounting for both direct and spillover effects. Results reveal significant spatial inter-dependencies. In ECOWAS, ratifying anti-IFF instruments enhances domestic resource mobilization, with positive spillover effects in neighboring countries but no significant reduction in IFFs. In contrast, in SADC, these instruments effectively reduce IFFs while simultaneously improving domestic resource mobilization, albeit with negative spillover effects. Key policy recommendations include strengthening cross-border anti-corruption frameworks in ECOWAS, enhancing financial oversight, and improving governance structures to prevent IFF displacement. In SADC, efforts should focus on reinforcing regulatory enforcement, mitigating spillover effects through regional coordination, and balancing trade openness with financial safeguards. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated regional and continental approach to tackling IFFs in Africa.

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Analysis of Gender Differences in Access to Financial Services in Burkina Faso

(AERC, 2026) Bouraima Sawadogo; Steve Douanla Meli; Evodie Esther Ngomena

This study analyzes the differences between men and women in terms of access to formal and informal financial services in Burkina Faso. More precisely, using Global Findex (2021) data collected from 1,000 households by the World Bank group, it first attempts, using logistic regressions, to analyze the impact of gender, first on the probability of access to formal financial services, then on the probability of access to formal financial services, of access to informal financial services, and finally on access to both forms of services. Then, using the multivariate decomposition method, it analyzes the gender gaps in access to these two forms of financial services. The results of logistic regressions indicate that compared to men, women are more likely to access not only informal financial services, but also both forms of financial services at the same time. Multivariate decompositions reveal the existence of gaps in access to the two forms of financial services, to the disadvantage of women. These gaps are explained, on the one hand, by differences in characteristics between the two groups, also known as the explained component, particularly standard of living and age, with regard to access to formal financial services, and, on the other hand, by differences in coefficients, also known as the unexplained component, with regard to access to informal financial services.

Publication

Foreign Direct Investment and Export Diversification in Africa: The Role of Institutional Quality

(AERC, 2026-02) GOLO Yao Nukunu

This article analyses the role of institutional quality in host countries in facilitating the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on export diversification in Africa. The analysis is based on the idea that the mixed results of existing empirical studies may be due to institutional heterogeneity and posits that improving institutional quality can intensify the benefits associated with FDI, with varying impacts across countries and/or over time. To achieve this objective, we used a two-step linear panel and a dynamic panel with interaction terms on a sample of 30 African countries covering the period 1996-2019. The sample is subdivided into subgroups according to their natural resource endowment. The results show that FDI has a positive effect on export diversification in mineral-rich and oil-producing countries. These results contradict the predictions of Asiedu and Lien (2011) and Gylfason and Zoega (2006), who argue that FDI should create either a crowding-out effect on investment in the natural resource sector and/or favourable wage differentials in the natural resource sectors, resulting in a concentration of exports in these sectors. Similarly, the quality of institutions has a direct negative effect on export diversification, partly confirming the literature that, with an abundance of strategic natural resources (such as oil), the quality of institutions is no longer an indicator of FDI attractiveness (Asiedu, 2013, Aleksynska and Havrylchyk, 2012, and Feulefack and Ngassam, 2020). On the other hand, the indirect effect of institutional quality on export diversification through FDI is positive. Countries that improve their institutions can attract more investment and strengthen their international competitiveness, which can lead to greater export diversification . Given that the quality of institutions still needs to be improved in African economies, they are unable to attract sufficient FDI to promote the diversification of their exports. Under these circumstances, it is imperative that African countries create an institutional environment that attracts sufficient FDI in order to diversify their exports

Publication

Infrastructure Diffusion and the Use of Self-Service Banking Applications: A Micro-Spatial Approach

(AERC, 2026-02) Morakinyo Adetutu; Kayode Odusanya

Self-service Banking Applications (i.e., internet and mobile banking) facilitate remote access to financial services by bank account holders while also offering productivity and cost savings for banks. In this study, we combine a unique dataset, constructed by matching geo-referenced cell tower infrastructure data and a nationally representative survey of 21,844 individuals in Nigeria, to investigate how infrastructure diffusion affects the use of Self-service Banking Applications (SSBAs). Our analysis is underpinned by a novel micro-spatial approach used to compute the number of cell towers within a radial specification of respondents’ street-level locations. After controlling for individual and regional covariates and addressing the endogeneity issue, we find that cell tower concentration increases the probability of using mobile and internet banking, although this effect is stronger for mobile banking. Our results are robust to alternative specifications for cell tower concentration. The findings of this paper underscore the view that promoting access to financial services requires implementing policies aimed at closing the digital divide associated with the diffusion of telecom infrastructure and contemporaneous technologies like smartphone devices.

Publication

Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub- Saharan African Countries

(AERC, 2025-11) Tekalign Gutu Sakketa; Muhammed A. Usman; Abbi Kedir

Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.

Publication

Is the Link between Public Debt and Private Investment Asymmetric in Kenya?

(AERC, 2026) Roseline Nyakerario Misati; Anne Wangari Kamau; Maureen Teresa Odongo; Kethi Ngoka

This study examined the relationship between public debt and private investment in Kenya, with a focus on the asymmetric effects of public debt. The study used both descriptive and empirical analysis, which was conducted using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models and annual data covering the period 1967-2022. Three conclusions can be drawn from the descriptive analysis. First, debt spikes and troughs are explainable by a diversity of factors, including policy shifts and support to state-owned enterprises, with fiscal consolidation having a minimal role. Second, foreign-financed targeted and short-term projects, particularly towards the rural areas and low-income groups, have had a high success rate. Third, among comparator countries, Kenya ranks low in public investment efficiency scores, particularly in project selection and appraisal. The empirical results show evidence of asymmetric response of private investment to public debt with heterogeneity across various components of public debt. Specifically, the results show that rising public debt, external debt, and debt servicing are detrimental to private investment in the long run. The results also showed that the impact of an increase in debt on private investment is higher than the impact of a debt reduction, suggesting that an increase in debt may not be reversed by a similar reduction in debt. The results further show that declining domestic debt significantly decreases private investment, contradicting the crowding-out theory. The study makes five recommendations. First, the use of external debt should be strategic and targeted at sectors that bolster the private sector while minimizing reliance on commercial loans. Second, there is a need for further analysis to identify and focus policy on sectors that benefit from the complementary effects of domestic debt on private investment. Third, policy interventions on public debt should be heterogeneous across different components of debt. Fourth, efficiency gains from public investment would be enhanced by focusing policy priority on project selection and appraisal. Fifth, policymakers concerned with public debt management need to take into account the possible inability to reverse public debt increases with similar amounts of decreases.

Publication

Understanding the Determinants of Mobile Money Usage and its Effect on Firm Performance: Cross-Country Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

(AERC, 2026) Joseph B. Ajefu; Adolicia Rasoarivao

A growing number of studies have examined the roles of mobile money usage in relation to firms’ outcomes, but little emphasis has been placed on the cross-country determinants of mobile money usage as well as its impact on firms’ performance. This paper examines the determinants of mobile money usage and its impacts on firms’ total sales and profits (proxied as firm performance) using a sample of firms across 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the determinants or drivers of mobile money usage by firms in sub-Saharan Africa, this paper adopts both the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, probit model, ordered probit model approach. The paper identifies a few variables (factors) such as firm level as well as macro-level variables as determinants of mobile money usage by firms. In addition, this paper estimates the impact of mobile money on firms’ performance by adopting the ordinary least squares, and an instrumental variable (IV) estimation approach. Further, using the OLS and IV approaches, the paper finds statistically significant effect of mobile money usage on firms’ performance for the sample of firms in our analysis. The findings lend credence to the growing consensus about the relevance of mobile money in addressing issues of credit constraint of firms and its implications on firms’ performance in developing countries, especially in the context of sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication

FAILURE AND SURVIVAL OF WEST AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION BANKS : THE ROLE OF REGULATORY CAPITAL

(AERC, 2026) Vigninou Gammadibe

This paper analyzes the contribution of capital and its ownership structure on the failure of WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) banks. The study covers 147 banks observed over the period 2003-2017 and is based on non-parametric, semi-parametric, and parametric survival models. The results of the estimates using the partial maximum likelihood method show that the capital ratio plays a key role in the survival of banks by significantly reducing the probability of failure. Findings revealed that they can predict banking difficulties over a time horizon ranging from one to three years. Foreign ownership seems to reduce the probability of default. The increase in bank capital from 2007 seems to be accompanied by a faster acceleration of total bank assets as compared to equity. The estimates showed that low market share is an indicator of banks’ vulnerability. Based on these findings, the paper recommends special supervision of small and newly established banks with small market shares and better management of banking institutions concerning capital management and risk-taking. Furthermore, the study urges the regulator to consider the structure of the market while issuing new licenses, to avoid a highly competitive banking sector that is not conducive to the stability and survival of banks.

Publication

Household Response to Seasonal Hunger in Uganda: Evidence from National Panel Surveys

(AERC, 2026) Ibrahim Kasirye; Madina Guloba

Despite Uganda having constitutional provisions to ensure food security, a large population of Ugandans can still not meet the minimum recommended dietary intake (RDI). In addition, there are within-country variations in the number of cropping seasons, which affect continuous food availability. The study explored the correlates of seasonal hunger, an important but neglected issue within the African and Ugandan food security literature. In addition, we explored the nature of coping strategies adopted by households faced with seasonal hunger using four waves of a unique panel dataset of Ugandan households from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We find that fertilisers significantly reduce the risk of experiencing seasonal hunger. In some estimations, having a household member engaged in wage employment is associated with an increased risk of seasonal hunger. Our results show that policies focusing on smoothing consumption or boosting productivity can help address seasonal hunger. Concerning the appropriateness of coping strategies, we find that having adequate storage is negatively associated with the seasonal hunger experience. Regarding policies, households can adopt ex-ante strategies to smooth consumption, such as keeping livestock and establishing appropriate storage facilities. Social protection interventions should thus have a livestock component. Using improved agricultural inputs should be a major focus for extension services in order to enhance productivity.

Publication

The Nexus Between Agricultural Aid and Poverty Alleviation in Sub-Saharan Africa

(AERC, 2026) N’Dri Kan David

The primary objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness of foreign public aid in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan African countries. Employing a methodological framework that encompasses linear panel and simultaneous equations models, we aim to assess the hypothesis that such aid contributes to poverty reduction by enhancing agricultural productivity. Our analysis yields evidence indicating a positive and statistically significant effect of international aid allocated to the agricultural sector on agricultural productivity. A 1% increase in aid per worker is associated with a 0.198% increase in agricultural productivity, holding other factors constant. Furthermore, our findings elucidate that increases in agricultural productivity exert a mitigating influence on poverty levels within the sub-Saharan African context. A 1% increase in agricultural productivity is associated with a 0.02 percentage point decrease in the poverty headcount ratio, on average, all else being equal. The results indicate that foreign aid affects poverty and agricultural productivity in the selected countries. Therefore, it is suggested that international donors increase their aid to foreign agriculture, focusing on methods that boost productivity. Consequently, our results highlight the imperative of maximizing the productivity-oriented outcomes of agricultural aid, thereby enhancing its effectiveness in efforts to reduce poverty.

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Impact of the Adoption of Electrical Equipment on Cotton Productivity in Benin

(AERC, 2026) Pascaline E. Agboca; Marcel O. Ifecro

In Benin, the improvement in cotton productivity occurred in a context of increased access by farmers to electrical equipment. The objective of this research is to analyze the effective contribution of the adoption of electrical equipment to cotton productivity in the country. The regime switching model – MCR (endogenous switching regression) is used based on data from the Harmonized Survey on Household Living Conditions in Benin (EHCVM, 2019). The results obtained indicate on the one hand that education, use of telephone, financial account, inputs, transfers received, household shock and cultivation area are determining factors in the adoption of equipment electricity by cotton producers and on the other hand that the value of the effect of the adoption of electrical equipment on cotton productivity is 2502 kg per ha. This gain in productivity suggests at the microeconomic level that cotton producers who have not adopted electrical equipment do so in the hope, all other things being equal, of an increase in their productivity on average of 44.31% compared to their level current productivity. The microeconomic policy implications of this study are the orientation of cotton farmers towards equipment using electrical energy and the popularization of their adoption, especially in areas of intense production for the increase in cotton productivity in Benin.

Publication

Inequality of Opportunity in Prevention of Malaria in Pregnancy in Kenya

(AERC, 2026) Elizabeth Owiti

Background: Kenya is classified as a malaria epidemic zone with more than 70% of the population at high risk of the disease, while the remaining are at low risk. Pregnant women are more vulnerable to malaria infection, and maternal and infant morbidity and mortality in Kenya are associated with malaria in pregnancy. The government of Kenya promotes malaria prevention in pregnancy using insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent prevention treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP). The objective of this study is to estimate the trend of coverage and inequality of opportunity in the prevention of malaria in pregnancy in Kenya and establish the determinants of these inequalities. Methodology: We used the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) to examine the equality of opportunity in joint use of two malaria prevention interventions: insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) among pregnant women in Kenya. The Shapley decomposition method is used to capture the contribution of each circumstance to inequality of these opportunities, using pooled KDHS data for 2003, 2008/09, 2014, and 2022. Results: We find that between 2003 and 2022 the cummulative national coverage, dissimilarity, and HOI of using ITNs and IPTp–SP were 45.4%, 3.8% and 43.7%. The trend of coverage and HOI increased from 12.2% to 65.3% and from 10.7% to 62.4% during the same period. While inequality decreased from12.8% to 1.6% and then increased to 4.4% in 2022. The coverage implies that malaria prevention services were not available for 34.7% of pregnant women in by 2022. The HOI increased by 48.6% from 2003 to 2008/09, 0.7% of the increase was due to change in the distribution of circumstances and 41.1% increase was due to increase in overall coverage and 6.9% increase was due to equalization effect. In the Lake Victoria region and the Coastal malaria stable areas in Kenya, there was an increasing trend in of utilization of both ITNs and IPTp–SP from 11.8% in 2003 to 83.3% in 2014, then a declined to 65.4% in 2022. The HOI increased from 9.2% to 83.14%, then declined to 59.2%. The dissimilsrity index declined from 22.3 % to 0.16% in 2014, then incresed to 9.5% in 2022. There was a significant decline in inequality of opportunity between 2003 and 2014, but an increase there after. These increase could be attributed to distruptiosn in access to health services during and after COVID 19 outbreak. Using Shapley decomposition, we find the top five circumstances contributing to inequality of opportunity for ITNs and IPTp – SP utilization are: women’s level of education, spouse occupation, average number of women per cluster delivering in the health facilities, among others. Conclusion: While the country made progress in increasing coverage, access and reducing inequality in malaria prevenion among pregnant women between 2003 and 2014, there were set backs post 2014 leaving over 34% unprotected by 2022. The malaria endemic zone is the most affected. To achieve univeral coverage, the government needs to intensify the efforts to close the gap in coverage and access while eliminating dispatities especially in high risk Lake Victoria region and the Coastal regions

Publication

Do Non-Classical Measurement Errors Affect the Effects of Farm Input Subsides on Crop Productivity? Evidence from Malawi

(AERC, 2026) Martin Limbikani Mwale

Non-classical measurement errors produce biased and inconsistent estimates in estimations. Previous studies have examined the effects of farm production on crop productivity without accounting for non-classical measurement errors. Using satellite data, which is free from neo-classical errors, this study sought to establish whether the effects of Malawi’s farm input subsidy on crop productivity are biased. The study compared results generated using satellite yields to those generated using yields reported by farmers through a survey. The study tested the sensitivity of the satellite estimates by changing the possible yields to fertilizer response rates, and the results remained consistent with the main findings. The findings revealed that the effect of farm input subsidies on crop productivity generated through survey data are upward biased. Farmers over-report yields to demonstrate that they are productive and retain their status as subsidy beneficiaries. Studies on farm input subsidies, therefore, need to pay attention to non-classical measurement errors to provide reliable results and policy advice on farm input subsidies. Furthermore, policy on farm input subsidies needs to strengthen the targeting of beneficiaries to evade inclusion and exclusion errors of productive farmers.

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Economic Transformation and Tax Revenue Performance in SSA Countries

(AERC, 2026) Fossong Derrick; Ndamsa Dickson Thomas

Many studies have addressed the determinants of tax revenue performance, but knowledge on the causal impacts of economic transformation is nearly non-existent. This study used panel data from the World Bank Development Indicators and UNDP database over the period 1990–2021 to provide evidence on the effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance. Our panel data estimation disentangled the causal effects of economic transformation in resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. We employed the GMM to correct the problem of dynamic endogeneity and unobserved panel heterogeneity. We further utilized the fixed and random effects to assess the robustness of the GMM estimations. GMM results indicated that economic transformation has a significant positive effect on tax revenue performance in SSA. The fixed and random effects results reported a positive and significant effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance in SSA, similar to the GMM results. We used two ICT-related transmission mechanisms: ICT adoption and ICT export/import. We found that ICT stock does mediate the effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance. Like in resource-rich countries, economic transformation had a positive impact on tax revenue performance in non-resource-rich countries. Thus, this study recommends that SSA countries, in an effort to increase tax revenue performance, should promote economic transformation through the DEPTH (diversification, export competitiveness, productivity, technological upgrading, and human well-being). Measures to enhance ICT adoption the for e-tax system are vital in strengthening the relationship between economic transformation and tax revenue performance in SSA.

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Assessing the Impact of Input Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Applied Political Economy Analysis

(AERC, 2026) Joseph Manzvera; Mark Manyanga

The increasing policy interests and vibrant scholarly debate surrounding the impact of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have inspired a growing literature on how input subsidies affect agricultural productivity. The available empirical evidence provides contrasting views, with one school of thought supporting input subsidies as agricultural productivity catalysts, while another school of thought views input subsidies as agricultural policies that failed to stimulate productivity but instead imposed unsustainable pressure on national fiscal resources. Therefore, understanding the extent to which input subsidies influence agricultural productivity, the prevailing effect, and the drivers behind one effect or the other is a pressing matter to guide policy and practice. As such, this study systematically reviewed existing literature on the subject matter and synthesized the evidence through an applied political economy analysis lens. Concurrently, a meta-analysis was conducted to disentangle the potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of input subsidy programs across different countries. The findings showed that input subsidy programs contributed to boosting agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa in general. The average pooled effect size of input subsidies on crop value is US$128/ha (p<0.01). However, there exists a significant heterogeneity in the effect of input subsidy programs from one study to the other (Ι 2 = 100%). This underscored the role played by the prevailing political economy landscape and other subsidy-specific characteristics on the effectiveness of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Input subsidy programs providing input packages with both fertilizer and improved seeds, as well as the use of a voucher system, enhance the effectiveness of input subsidies. The incidences of political patronage in subsidized input distribution, on the other hand, undermine the effectiveness of input subsidies. Contingent upon these findings, it is therefore proposed that input subsidy packages should include both fertilizer and improved seeds rather than fertilizer alone. There is also a need to deliberately incorporate legume crops, both from crop diversity and soil fertility points of view. The use of a voucher system is also encouraged to strengthen transparency and increase logistics efficiency and recipient targeting, while also permitting the timely delivery of subsidized inputs to farmers. To curb political patronage, it is suggested that farmer production return forms be used in input subsidy targeting to identify productive (but resource-constrained) farmers and, as a result, remove the involvement of public officials.

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Fiscal Consolidation and Asymmetric Macroeconomic Effects: Evidence from Sub Saharan African Countries

(AERC, 2026) Oluwasola E. Omoju; Ruth Badru; Andrea Cale; Ayobami E. Ilori

This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of fiscal consolidation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using an annual dataset from 1995 to 2019 for 37 countries in the region. Employing the local projection approach, we analyze the short- and medium-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and debt reduction. Our findings reveal that fiscal consolidation measures exert an expansionary effect on output, and the debt reduction effect reaches its peak after three years. Notably, heavily indebted poor countries exhibit a more pronounced response to fiscal consolidation, while the impact is independent of resource endowment levels. During economic upturns, the debt reduction effect is rapid but transitory. Conversely, during downturns, the effect is gradual, more substantial, and persistent. Furthermore, we find that expenditure-based and revenue-based consolidation have similar effects on debt and output during expansionary phases. However, during recessions, their effects differ considerably. Overall, our findings indicate that expenditure-based fiscal consolidation enhances fiscal sustainability but may come at the cost of reduced consumption welfare. Moreover, prioritizing expenditure-based fiscal consolidation offers a promising pathway for enhancing fiscal sustainability in the region. These findings offer important implications for policymakers seeking to address the challenges of public finance and debt distress in SSA.