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1. Policy Briefs
Concise summaries that present research findings and policy recommendations on key economic issues to inform policymakers and stakeholders.
2. Research Papers
In-depth studies and scholarly articles that explore various aspects of economic theories and empirical research, contributing to academic discourse and understanding.
3. Working Papers
Preliminary reports on ongoing research that are circulated to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication.
4. Theses and Dissertations:
CPP Thesis: Rigorous academic research focused on pertinent policy issues, typically by candidates of the Collaborative PhD Program. CMAP Thesis: Scholarly works by Master's candidates involved in the Collaborative Master's in Economics Program, showcasing original research in the Economics sector. CMAAE Thesis: Advanced research endeavors by Master's students under the Collaborative Master's in Agricultural and Applied Economics, contributing to knowledge in agricultural economics and related fields CMAAE Thesis
5. Senior Policy Seminar papers
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) holds a Senior Policy Seminar annually. This conference is hosted by AERC and sometimes jointly with a partner. AERC convenes this forum to provide high level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected on the basis of topicality and contemporary interest to African policy making.
6. Other Publications
A diverse range of documents including, but not limited to, conference papers, book chapters, and research updates that do not fall under the conventional categories.

Recent Submissions

Publication

Effects of Human Capital (Health) on Economic Growth in Africa: Role of Trade, Analysis by Gender Health and Income Level

(AERC, 2026) Essotanam Mamba; Afi Balaki

The paper examines the effects of human capital (health) on economic growth by highlighting the complementary role of trade, the effect of women’s and men’s health on growth, and comparing the effect of health on growth in low-income countries (LICs) to that in lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) between 1980 and 2021 in Africa. The instrumental variables (IV) approach with fixed effects (IV-FE) is used to control for the endogeneity issue, such as omitted variables and error measurement. The findings reveal that health significantly enhances growth in Africa, but only in LMICs. Also, health of both male and female significantly increase growth in Africa. Furthermore, adult survival is more relevant for growth than life expectancy. Finally, the marginal effect (ME) of life expectancy at birth increases with the level of trade above a certain threshold; above the level of trade equal to 38.745 % of GDP this ME becomes positive and statistically significant. Also, the ME of adult survival growth rate increases with the level of trade above and below certain thresholds; between the interval 71.952 and 136.319, the ME of adult survival growth rate is positive and statistically significant. These findings imply that health improvements and better alignment of health and trade policies are needed to stimulate growth in Africa.

Publication

Effects Of Trade Policies on External Trade Performances of Ecowas Countries (1996- 2017)

(AERC, 2026) Essotanam Mamba; Afi Balaki

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional economic community supported by the African Union, has adopted a common trade policy through the implementation of the Trade Liberalization Scheme (TLS) instituted in 1979. One of the essential steps of this TLS is the entry into force of the ECOWAS common external tariff on January 1, 2015, a necessary step for the integration of the countries of this Community into the African Continental Free Trade Area. The objective of the paper is to analyze the effects of trade policies on foreign trade performance of ECOWAS countries between 1996-2017. Unlike most studies on the subject, the paper uses a new continuous trade policy index captured by the implementation of the TLS to analyze the direct and indirect effects of trade policies on manufacturing exports and imports. Controlling for the endogeneity of the variables of interest, the findings indicate that the TLS implementation significantly contributes to the growth of imports but much more exports. These findings are robust to different estimation techniques. Furthermore, the analysis of the multiplicative interaction model reveals that the effects of TLS on manufacturing trade performance increase with financial development and the rate of cellular mobile subscriptions. These findings have implications for economic policies.

Publication

Export Duration in West Africa, an Analysis of Economic Integration Agreements’ Effects

(AERC, 2026) Adou Niango Sika Antoine Brice

The main objective of economic trade agreements is to reduce trade costs and stimulate economic growth through trade. Using data over the period 1962 to 2019, this paper examines the contribution of economic integration agreements on exports duration in West Africa. The results show that economic integration agreements influence positively trade survival in West Africa. Nevertheless, the average time of trade survival is short, which is compatible with results found in the literature. Results in this study show that when partner countries are part of a regional economic communities, their trade relationship survives longer than other countries outside the community. Data at a more disaggregated level also confirmed that trade duration is short-lived. The findings provide insights to policy makers at the era of the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement as well as at the renewal of the AGOA agreements. More importantly, when negotiating agreements, the region can show more collaboration and level ground for more investments in sectors where these countries have comparative advantages.

Publication

Impact De La Fécondité Sur L’Autonomisation Économique De La Femme Au Bénin

(AERC, 2026) Josette Rosine Aniwuvi Gbeto; Véronique Houngue

Cette étude analyse l’effet de la fécondité sur l’autonomisation économique de la femme au Bénin captée par la participation au marché du travail et l'autonomie décisionnelle. La méthode des variables instrumentales est appliquée pour l'analyse de l'effet de la fécondité sur la participation des femmes au marché du travail et un modèle de probit ordonné avec sélection, pour analyser l’effet de la fécondité sur l'autonomie décisionnelle. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’enquête démographique et de santé (EDS) conduite au Bénin en 2018. Un échantillon de 8762 femmes ayant au moins deux enfants et âgées de 15-49 ans est utilisé pour la participation des femmes au marché du travail et un échantillon de 11756 femmes âgées de 15-49 ans pour l'autonomie décisionnelle. Les résultats montrent qu'une augmentation du nombre d'enfants de la femme d'un point, réduit la probabilité que la femme participe au marché du travail en moyenne de 0,174 en général, et en particulier réduit respectivement la probabilité que la femme participe aux activités de types professionnels de 0,0117 ; les services de 0,0389 et le commerce de 0,154. En revanche, l'augmentation du nombre d'enfants d'un point augmente la probabilité que la femme fasse des travaux du secteur agricole de 0,168. Par ailleurs, une augmentation du nombre d'enfants d'une unité, diminue la probabilité que la femme prenne des décisions par rapport : aux achats importants du ménage, à sa santé et aux visites à ses parents respectivement de 4,14 ; 2,97 et 2,34 points de pourcentage. Nous remarquons une forte hétérogénéité dans l'effet de la fécondité sur l'autonomie décisionnelle de la femme entre le milieu urbain et le milieu rural. Ces résultats suggèrent que les politiques publiques en matière de réduction de fécondité, de participation des femmes au marché du travail et d’autonomisation des femmes, devraient prendre en compte les différences entre les milieux de vie de la femme et celles entre les secteurs d'activités.

Publication

La Qualité De L'éducation En Afrique Subsaharienne Francophone : Une Analyse Des Facteurs De Réussite Dans L'enseignement Primaire, Sur La Base Des Données PASEC 2019

(AERC, 2026) Hamidou Bocar Sall

Cette étude établit un lien entre les résultats scolaires des élèves, mesurés par leurs notes en lecture et en mathématiques en sixième année du primaire, leur situation socio-économique et leur environnement scolaire dans six pays de l'UEMOA (Bénin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Sénégal et Togo). Afin de prendre en compte la structure hiérarchique des données, nous adoptons une méthode d'analyse multiniveaux (MLA). Les données utilisées ont été collectées par le PASEC dans le cadre d'une enquête internationale sur la qualité de l'éducation menée en 2019. Les résultats montrent une inégalité d'apprentissage significative entre les écoles dans les systèmes éducatifs des dix pays, avec un coefficient de corrélation intraclasse (CCI) élevé. Il apparaît également que le redoublement, l'âge, le sexe, l'alphabétisation des parents, le statut de l'école (publique ou privée) et la disponibilité des infrastructures scolaires sont les principaux facteurs expliquant la variation des résultats des élèves. Les implications politiques sont discutées.

Publication

Teachers, Schools and Child Development in Benin

(AERC, 2026) Marius K. Sossou; F. Antoine Dedewanou

This study investigates the relative importance of teachers and schools’ effects, with a specific focus on female teachers, on the cognitive skills (math and reading test scores) among the 2nd year primary school pupils in Benin. We use data from the 2014 Program for the Analysis of Education Systems of CONFEMEN (PASEC). Our findings reveal that female teachers demonstrate a positive influence on students' cognitive skills, particularly in math and reading. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers that students with higher math scores benefit significantly from female teachers, particularly female students. We explore the underlying mechanisms of these results, demonstrating that female teachers invest more effort in teaching and employ a mix of traditional and modern teaching practices. These findings have important policy implications, suggesting the need to promote and support female educators in primary schools and to further investigate the specific teaching practices that contribute to improved cognitive skills.

Publication

Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Risky Home Production: The Case of South Africa

(AERC, 2026) Yoseph Getachew

This paper develops and calibrates a heterogeneous-agent Aiyagari-type model tailored to a developing economy. The model incorporates stochastic home production, endogenous human capital investment, and incomplete capital markets. In contrast to standard incomplete-market models that typically predict excessive capital accumulation, the framework shows that when home and market goods are complements and home production is subject to idiosyncratic risk, households’ smooth consumption primarily through intertemporal time reallocation rather than intertemporal saving. As a result, labor and resources shift away from the market sector, leading to lower equilibrium capital accumulation. The model is calibrated to an emerging African economy and used to evaluate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of fiscal policy when households face shocks to both market productivity and home production. A five-percentage-point increase in the income tax rate reduces market capitalisation, output, and investment in human capital. The policy also lowers income and consumption inequality, but increases wealth inequality. These results highlight the importance of sectoral risk and household time allocation for evaluating fiscal policy in developing economies.

Publication

Bribery And Tax Evasion: Does The Level Of Financial Constraint Matter?

(AERC, 2026) Oludele Folarin

Domestically mobilised resources in African countries are low, and the current levels are inadequate to finance projects required to achieve sustainable development goals by 2030. One of the ways by which African governments could increase domestically mobilised revenue is by reducing tax evasion. This study examines the effect of bribery and credit constraints on tax evasion (both the incidence and extent) by firms in SSA, using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) for 26 countries. Instrumental Variable (IV) Probit regression estimation technique was employed to determine the effect of bribery on the incidence of tax evasion. The Instrumental Tobit regression estimation technique was employed to estimate the effect of bribery on the extent of tax evasion. The results emanating from this study show that tax evasion is higher among firms that pay bribes. Also, the positive effect of bribery on tax evasion holds across the different levels of credit constraints. However, the effect is higher among firms that are fully credit-constrained. The results also show that countries with more robust institutional qualities, such as government effectiveness, the rule of law and control of corruption, had a lesser positive effect of bribery on tax evasion. The study findings reinforce the idea that low tax revenue in African countries is self-inflicted by government actions, resulting in weak civil services and institutions. Also, the study's findings indicate that improvement in access to finance goes beyond its role in enhancing economic growth and poverty reduction to include discouragement of tax evasion behaviour by economic agents.

Publication

The Effect of Non-Farm Activities on Rural Household Consumption in Sudan: Evidence from Endogenous Switching Regression Model

(AERC, 2026) Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali; Ebaidalla Mahajoub Ebaidalla

Despite the growing prevalence of non-farm activities (NFA) in rural Sudan, their implications for household consumption and welfare remain underexplored. This study investigates the determinants of rural household participation in NFAs and assesses their impact on household consumption levels in Sudan. The research utilizes data from the 2015 Sudan National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and applies an endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to address potential selection bias and endogeneity. This methodology jointly estimates the decision to participate in NFAs and the corresponding consumption outcomes for participant and non-participant households. The results show that household head gender, education, age, media access, credit access, rain-fed irrigation, farm income, distance to urban centers, and regional location significantly impact both NFA participation and household consumption. Treatment effect estimates indicate that NFA engagement significantly increases total and food consumption, with results consistent across wage employment and self-employment types. This study makes key contributions to the literature by being the first to empirically assess the impact of NFAs on household consumption in Sudan. Additionally, it provides novel insights into the heterogeneous welfare outcomes of wage-based versus self-employment NFAs in rural areas.

Publication

Mobile Money Technology Adoption in Uganda: The Role of Social Networks

(AERC, 2026) Alfred Kechia Mukong; Lwanga Elizabeth Nanziri

Innovative financial technologies are becoming a pathway to inclusive economic participation for individuals and firms. This paper presents evidence on how individuals’ decisions to adopt such technology, particularly mobile money, relate to the adoption choices of their network of family and friends. Using the Uganda Financial Inclusion Insights (FII) Tracker Survey for 2013, we find that mobile money adoption decisions are closely linked to the network of an individual’s family and friends. Networks are defined in two ways: by the source of information on mobile money services and by the average number of adoptions in one’s neighbourhood. Like many other studies, we find a positive correlation between mobile money adoption and the adoption decisions of one’s network. The correlation persists across the different measures of networks and even when we control for unobservable (neighbourhood fixed effects) characteristics. However, the magnitude of the point estimates decreases as the model becomes saturated. Despite having more mobile money users than adopters in our sample, we do not find evidence that networks can stifle technology adoption due to the possibility of piggybacking on early adopters within the network.

Publication

Banking Market Structure and Heterogeneous Response of Bank Lending to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Uganda

(AERC, 2026) Dorothy Nampewo

This paper investigates the heterogeneous response of bank lending following a monetary policy change. The study was conducted in the context of developing countries and is based on dynamic panel error correction methods using quarterly Ugandan bank-level data for the period 2011 - 2019. Results support the presence of heterogeneity in bank lending response to monetary policy changes by bank size and ownership type. Specifically, monetary policy pass-through is weaker in large foreign banks and stronger in smaller Pan-African banks. Moreover, bank lending response to monetary policy is asymmetric, with insignificant effects when the policy rate is falling. Risk, government borrowing, capital, and liquidity at the bank level, competition at the industry level, and inflation at the macro level are some of the factors that explain the response of bank lending to monetary policy.

Publication

INCLUSION FINANCIERE INNOVATION FINANCIERE ET PERFORMANCE DES ENTREPRISES

(AERC, 2026) Ahodode Bernadin Géraud Comlan; Eloundou Okala E. Bertrand; Bayiha N. T. Yolande

Cette étude analyse les effets de l'utilisation des services financiers (inclusion financière et innovation financière) sur la performance des entreprises au Cameroun. Les méthodes d'estimation des moindres carrés ordinaires et du modèle logit ont été utilisées pour les analyses empiriques. Les données utilisées proviennent de la base de données de l'enquête sur les entreprises 2016 de la Banque mondiale, qui couvre 361 entreprises. Les résultats révèlent, d'une part, les effets positifs de tous les services financiers sur la productivité du travail des entreprises et sur leur propension à exporter, à l'exception de l'utilisation exclusive de la microfinance et de l'argent mobile. D'autre part, nous notons la contribution des services bancaires à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires de l'industrie manufacturière, et en particulier des services bancaires, de microfinance et de monnaie mobile à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires du commerce et des services. Pour y parvenir, il est nécessaire de libéraliser le secteur financier au profit des opérateurs de réseau afin qu'ils puissent également opérer à l'international, et en ce qui concerne les institutions de microfinance, d'améliorer les performances des entreprises au Cameroun, comme l'ont fait leurs homologues au Ghana et au Kenya.

Publication

Banks' Exposure to Sovereign Debt and Loans to The Private Sector in WAEMU

(AERC, 2026) Djeneba DRAMÉ

This paper examines the relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign debt and their lending to the private sector. To do so, we use hand-collected bank-level data from all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2003-2022. The results show a negative relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign securities and their loans to the private sector. Our findings are robust to alternative estimation techniques and proxies for loans to the private sector and domestic public debt identification. The heterogeneity analysis uncovers that the effect is more pronounced in middle-income countries (LMICs) than in low-income countries (LICs). Additionally, we document that foreign banks, particularly Pan-African banks, reduce their loans more than domestic banks. However, larger and well-capitalized banks tend to mitigate the effect.

Publication

Economic Analysis of The Adoption of E-Commerce by Businesses in Cameroon

(AERC, 2026) Mpabe Bodjongo; Mathieu Juliot

The objective of this article is to identify factors likely to stimulate e-commerce in Cameroon. The analysis focuses on a sample of 145,439 companies from the 2nd General Business Census (INS, 2018). Drawing on the economic literature, the results obtained using the probit model that combines endogeneity bias treatment and selection bias correction, and the Heckman selection bias correction probit model, reveal that increases in company size, the use of mobile money, education levels, and proximity significantly promote the adoption of e-commerce by businesses. At the sectoral level, these results are only verified in the "Trade and transport" and "Construction and other tertiary services" sub-sectors.

Publication

Bridging Gender Productivity Gaps in Cameroon’s Agrifood Micro-Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

(AERC, 2026) Ousmanou Njikam; Coralie Paloma Mbengono; Valentin Désiré Guiama

• Rigorous decomposition analysis reveals both the extent of the gender productivity gap and the underlying drivers shaping Cameroon’s agrifood micro-, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). • The analysis distinguishes between formal and informal agrifood MSMEs, uncovering important differences in how gender gaps manifest across enterprise types. • Differences in returns to inputs drive the gender gap in both formal and informal agrifood MSMEs, pointing to persistent structural constraints and potential gender-based discrimination. • Structural determinants of the gender gap operate in two levels: common factors across sectors, including sectoral segregation, number of children, and vocational training and apprenticeship, and sector-specific and sector specific constraints, such as low education attainment, limited business networks and social connections, restricted access to bank credit, and low awareness of public policies). • Mechanisms driving productivity disproportionately affect enterprises established through bank loans, small-sized enterprises (10-25 employees), and agrifood MSMEs operating for more than three years. • Gender-responsive policy interventions are critical to achieving productivity parity. Priority should be given to reduce inequalities in (i) family and social responsibilities, (ii) educational attainment and training, (iii) access to formal finance, (iv) sectoral choice, (v) networks and social capital, and (vi) awareness and uptake of public support policies.

Publication

Agricultural Production Diversity and Market Access: Implications for Dietary Diversity among Smallholder Farm Households in Cameroon

(AERC, 2026) Anchang Juliana Adjem; Meliko Majory; Uwem Essia

Overnutrition, overweight, and obesity as consequences of nutrition transition are a growing concern of public policy in less developed countries, where it poses a triple burden even to rural areas battling with undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. The complex link between agriculture and nutritional outcomes has been well established. However, studies often overlook key socio-cultural dimensions of nutrition outcomes in the context of the nutrition transition and the increasing triple burden of malnutrition in rural agricultural communities. This study seeks to investigate the implications of agricultural production diversity on dietary diversity in rural smallholder farm households. We hypothesize that in addition to the contribution of production diversity and the mediating role of market access, socio-cultural factors have a significant influence on household dietary diversity and quality. Data was obtained from a cross-sectional survey of smallholder farm households in the Southwest Region, Cameroon, from 2018 to 2019. The effect of agricultural production diversity and better market access was estimated to be positive using both Generalised Poisson regression and Instrumental Variable two Stage Least Square or Instrumental Variable Poisson models. While better market access plays a positive and significant role in nutrition security and diet quality for smallholder farm households, we found that agricultural production diversity has a greater positive effect on diet outcomes than market access. Similarly, households with women empowerment indicators and better knowledge on nutrition were associated with better diet outcomes. We found a greater proportion of households with unfavourable attitudes relating to socio-cultural norms and perception. We posit that agricultural and food policies and investments should adopt an integrated approach that aligns with societal and cultural needs in promoting market access and encouraging more nutritious food choices to effectively and sustainably tackle challenges to poor nutrition. However, longitudinal studies are essential and will provide rigour on the role agricultural production diversity plays in the nutritional and health status of rural households in Cameroon.

Publication

Safeguarding Nutrition in Togo: Policy Responses to Rising Food Prices

(AERC, 2026) Amy KA; Assion Lawson Sipoaka; Françoise Okah Efogo; Mamatchi Melila

Rising food prices significantly reduce food consumption and worsen the nutritional status of households in Togo. The impacts are gender-differentiated and vary between urban and rural areas. Universal policy responses can cushion shocks but place substantial pressure on public finances. Well-targeted, nutrition-sensitive cash or in-kind transfers are the most effective short-term policy response.

Publication

Enhancing Fish Consumption Through Retail Market Policy Interventions in Kenya

(AERC, 2026) Kevin Okoth Ouko; Clarietta Chagwiza; Modock Oketch; Maureen Jepkorir Cheserek; Florence Achieng Opondo

• Promoting fish consumption provides an affordable, nutrient-dense approach to addressing nutrition challenges in Siaya County, Kenya. Policy support for locally available fish can enhance dietary quality, particularly for children, pregnant and lactating women, and low-income households. • Household fish consumption is shaped by market systems including infrastructure, food safety, and pricing, with rural and peri-urban households facing the greatest access barriers, underscoring the need for targeted market investments.

Publication

Protecting Household Nutrition in Senegal amid Food Price Shocks: Policy Options to Safeguard Vulnerable Populations

(AERC, 2026) Amy KA; Françoise Okah Efogo,; Assion Lawson SIpoaka; Mamatchi Melila

Food inflation poses a major threat to food and nutrition security in Senegal. In November 2022, food inflation reached 14.1%, significantly reducing households' purchasing power and access to quality food. While progress has been made in reducing chronic malnutrition, acute malnutrition has increased, highlighting a growing vulnerability to price shocks. This policy brief assesses the effects of rising food prices on Senegalese households using a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) combined with a household-level microsimulation module. The results show that an increase in international food prices leads to a 0.34 per cent decline in food consumption, a deterioration in energy intake (+0.28 nutritional poverty points), and a marked deterioration in essential micronutrient intake.

Publication

Impact of Interest Rate Controls on Risk-taking Behavior of Kenyan Commercial Banks

(AERC, 2026) Wytone Yohane Jombo

This study investigates the impact of interest rate capping on banks’ risk-taking behaviour in Kenya, a topic that has been underexplored in the existing literature. The study uses the non-performing loans ratio and z-score as proxies for risk appetite and employs a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) approach to analyse data from 26 commercial banks from 2013 to 2019. The study overcomes the challenge of the universal application of the cap across all Kenyan banks by capitalizing on the intensity of interest rates charged by different banks before the capping policy. The findings suggest that banks’ risk appetite significantly increased post-capping, indicating the negative impact of interest rate controls on banks. This is consistent with the general trend observed in related literature. The effects vary across bank peer categories, with medium-sized banks exhibiting the most pronounced changes. The study also reveals that the effect of interest rate capping on risk-taking behaviour varies based on the capital adequacy levels of banks. Based on these findings, the study calls for a reconsideration of the universal application of interest rate caps and suggests tailored approaches based on bank size or capital adequacy. It urges regulatory bodies to adopt a dynamic approach and conduct periodic reviews to manage the evolving risk landscape. The study emphasizes the importance of continuous dialogue between regulatory bodies and financial institutions to foster adaptive regulatory frameworks that balance stimulating economic growth and maintaining financial stability.