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XXVème conférence de haut niveau du CREA sur les politiques, Réunion virtuelle
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-22) Pritchett, Lant; Behrman, Jere R; Mwabu, Germano; Lucas, Adrienne; Ipapa, Gerald
Le capital humain - l'éducation, les compétences et la santé des personnes - joue un rôle fondamental dans la transformation des économies africaines. L'Afrique subsaharienne obtient le score le plus bas de toutes les régions du monde sur l'indice de capital humain de la Banque mondiale (environ 0,40), qui mesure la qualité de l'investissement des pays dans la prochaine génération de travailleurs (Banque mondiale, 2020). Pourtant, l'accès aux sources de capital humain en Afrique, bien qu'encore faible, s'est considérablement amélioré au cours des deux dernières décennies (Leornard, 2022). Davantage de ménages ont accès aux soins de santé, davantage d'étudiants sont scolarisés et les familles ont accès à davantage d'outils pour améliorer leur qualité de vie. Cependant, l'objectif du capital humain et de la qualité de vie est encore loin d'être atteint, même dans d'autres pays en développement, surtout si l'on tient compte des progrès substantiels réalisés en matière d'accès. Le faible capital humain de l'Afrique peut s'expliquer par trois facteurs interdépendants, à savoir : la survie, l'école et la santé.
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Institutional and parental factors as predictors of quality of education in public secondary schools in Oyo state, Nigeria.
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-22) BOLANLE, Adedoyin Adeola
Quality of Education (QoE), which can be measured through learning outcomes, is essential to lifelong learning and can be influenced by many factors within and outside the classroom. These factors include the availability of basic school supplies and the nature of a student’s home environment. However, reports have shown that QoE in many public secondary schools in Oyo State is poor. Previous studies concentrated more on interventions than on Institutional Factors (IFs) and Parental Factors (PFs). This study, therefore, was carried out to examine IFs (Teachers’ Adequacy - TA, Teachers’ Remuneration - TR, Teachers’ Capacity Building Programmes - TCBP, Infrastructural Facilities - IF, and Instructional Materials - IMs) and PFs (Parental Occupation - PO and Parental Income - PI) as predictors of QoE (students' academic performance in English Language and Mathematics being two compulsory subjects in secondary schools) in public secondary schools in Oyo State, Nigeria.Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s Systems Theory underpinned, while correlational design was adopted. Eighteen Local Government Areas (LGAs) were randomly selected from the existing 33 LGAs. One hundred and seventy-three public secondary schools in the selected LGAs were enumerated, while an intact class of Senior Secondary 11 students in the selected schools participated in the study. A total of 173 English Language and Mathematics teachers were purposively selected based on their teaching experience. The instruments used were English Language (r=0.81), Mathematics (r=0.75) achievement tests; TA (r = 0.86), TR (r = 0.74), TCBP (r=0.83), IF (r=0.75), IMs (r=0.86), PO (r=0.83), and PI (r=0.73) scales. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson product moment correlation, and Multiple regression at 0.05 level of significance.The majority (69.2%) of the teachers were female, while 59.1% of the students were female. The QoE (12.4%) was low based on students' average performance in English Language and Mathematics. The TA (𝑥̅=2.33), TR (𝑥̅=2.18), TCBP (𝑥̅=1.35), IF (𝑥̅=2.14), IMs (𝑥̅=1.67) were low against the threshold of 2.50. There were significant positive relationships between TA (r=0.11), TR (r=0.43), TCBP (r=0.21), IF (r=0.51), PO (r=0.06) and students’ achievement in English Language. The TA (r=0.31), TR (r=0.50), TCBP (r=0.43), IF (r=0.48), PO (r=0.30) had significant relationships with students’ achievement in Mathematics. There was a joint contribution of the IFs and PFs on students’ achievement in English Language (F(7, 1770) = 6.70; Adjusted R2=0.01), accounting for 1.0% of its variance. There were also joint contributions of IFs and PFs on students’ achievement in Mathematics (F(7, 1770) = 6.40; Adjusted R2=0.62) accounting for 62.0% of its variance. The TA (β=0.04), TR (β=0.13), IF (β=0.06) and PO (β=0.06) had significant relative contributions to students’ achievement in English Language, while TCBP, IMs and PI did not. The TA (β=0.21), TR (β=0.23), TCBP (β=0.10), IF (β=0.13) and PO (β=0.08) had significant relative contributions to students’ achievement in Mathematics, while IMs and PI did not.Teacher adequacy, teacher remuneration, teacher capacity building programmes, infrastructural facilities, and parental occupation influence quality of education in public secondary schools in Oyo State, Nigeria. These factors should be taken cognizance of to improve quality of education.
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The Determinants of Protective Behaviours during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Benin
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-16) Dedewanou, F. Antoine
This paper investigates the determinants of protective behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in Benin. We use data from online and phone surveys collected during the period 13 September 2020 ‒ 1 October 2020 among Benin citizens aged 18 years and older. Trust in government, beliefs about others’ compliance and employment status are significant determinants of compliance with the precautionary measures such as handwashing and social distancing. We also document significant association between trust in government and media use. These findings, therefore, suggest that the Government of Benin’s messages should focus on developing and maintaining trust among the public by providing transparent, coherent, clear, timely, and accurate information that reduces people’s uncertainty and enhances compliance. Two-way communication between the government and citizens can act as bridge to ensure public engagement and disseminate information.
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Tea Prices and Household Consumption Patterns in Tanzania
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-14) Nchake, Mamello A.; Mtenga, Threza L.
Tea production is a significant contributor to Tanzania’s output and income. The country is a price taker in regional and international tea markets. This makes it vulnerable to price shocks, which can have a detrimental impact on smallholder farmers, especially those who heavily rely on tea production for their income. This vulnerability is particularly critical for net producers who lack alternative income sources, especially in rural areas. The study uses a panel dataset from the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS), collected over the periods 2008-2009, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013. The study’s main findings indicate that tea price shocks have a strong negative effect on consumption patterns of smallholder farming households in Tanzania. The results also highlight that the impact of price shocks is not uniform across all households. It varies based on factors such as the gender of the household head and the location (rural or urban). The study underscores the importance of government intervention to support households affected by price shocks. Safety net programmes and welfare management initiatives can be vital in assisting these households to cope with economic uncertainties. Moreover, policies that encourage savings and the accumulation of productive assets can serve as a cushion against future shocks. Recognizing the variations in the effects of price volatility among different households, the study suggests the need for policies and strategies that are specifically designed to address the uncertainties in the tea market. This implies a nuanced approach to policies that address the diverse needs and vulnerabilities of tea-producing households
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Seminar Report_AERC Senior Policy Seminar XXV
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-14) Pritchett, Lant; Behrman, Jere R.; Mwabu,Germano; Lucas, Adrienne; Ipapa, Gerald
The collaborative research project on ‘Human Capital Development in Africa’ sought to generate evidence on the challenges of building human capital for accelerated inclusive development as well as address key constraints on human capital accumulation, such as weak public financial management (PFM) and service delivery systems (SDM). In addition, this collaborative research project sought to provide policy reforms that would enable Africa’s young people to grow up with optimal health and equipped with the right skills to compete in the digitizing global economy. The project involved both framework papers and country case studies.The framework papers sought to investigate broad, and crosscutting issues around human capital development to improve the capability of the continent (and its policy makers) to confront human capital development challenges, and leverage the opportunities they present, as it confronts its development challenges. The country case studies sought to inform policy makers and development practitioners on human capital development in Africa from the viewpoint of individual countries and/or sub-regions s (or group of countries).To assist policy makers and other actors improve generation and management of knowledge on Africa’s human capital and address key constraints on human capital accumulation, such as weak public financial management (PFM) and service delivery systems (SDS), the AERC intends to disseminate the findings from the above studies to senior African policy makers through its flagship dissemination vehicle, the “Senior Policy Seminar” (SPS).
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Aid Fragmentation and Development Outcomes in Sub-Saharan African Countries
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-02) Dedehouanou, Sessinou Erick Abel
This study examined the fragmentation of official development assistance (ODA) in Sub-Saharan African countries and the role played by development outcomes. Initially, it analyzed the fragmentation of aid over the period 2000 to 2019 using the Theil index. On the donor side, it appears that fragmentation of aid from bilateral Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors and bilateral non-DAC donors has decreased significantly in recent years. In addition, the aid provided by bilateral DAC donors has been less fragmented than that given by non-DAC bilateral donors. Several traditional donors and so-called emerging donors have contributed to the fragmentation of aid in Sub-Saharan African countries. As for aid recipients, the countries of Southern Africa or those belonging to the group of so-called fragile states have suffered less from aid fragmentation than their counterparts in Central, East, and West Africa, and those belonging to the group of non-fragile states. We used an instrumental variables method and a panel quantile regression with non-additive fixed effect to assess the effect of the development factors on aid fragmentation. The results obtained validated that the fragmentation of aid can be reduced by better coordination of aid at the sectoral level, and above all, by internal development factors (structural transformation policies and equity in the use of resources). Indeed, no solution to the fragmentation of aid is possible without the implementation of structural policies to achieve a level of development capable of coordinating the action of donors and equity in the use of resources allowing the satisfaction of the needs of various social groups
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Health is Wealth: The Impact of Health Insurance on Multidimensional Poverty in Ethiopia
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-02) Haile, Kaleab K.
While previous empirical studies extensively examined the determinants of households’ health insurance (HI) uptake, little has been done to evaluate the accompanying impacts on household welfare and poverty incidence. This study bridges the existing gap in literature by examining the impact of HI on multidimensional household poverty. The data comes from the latest wave of the Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey (ESS) collected in 2018/19. The study uses propensity score matching and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to even out the distribution of observed characteristics across purchasers and non-purchasers of HI. As these methods could not address simultaneity and self-selection biases, the study uses the endogeneous switching analysis, which integrates HI uptake and multidimensional household poverty equations, considering the interdependencies among the equations and their relationships with relevant observed household characteristics. The results reveal that households’ uptake of HI significantly reduces their probability of being multidimensionally poor. Moreover, the heterogeneous impact assessments of this study show that the desired impact of HI is more pronounced among male-headed households, households with a majority of adult male members, and households in urban areas. This study sheds light on the role of universal health coverage through HI as a policy instrument in the fight against multidimensional deprivations in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa.
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An Empirical Analysis of the Interaction between Monetary Policy and Commercial Bank Lending in Nigeria
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-02-02) Emekaraonye, Chukwunenye Ferguson; Dick, Emmanuel Ikechukwu; Agu, Chukwuma
Using a recursive structural vector autoregressive model and quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2019Q4, this study examines the transmission mechanism from monetary policy instruments, specifically the monetary policy rate, base money and nominal exchange rate, to outcome variables (prices and credit to the private sector) in Nigeria. The data showed structural breaks in 2004Q2, 2009Q3 and 2014Q3, which coincided with the 2004 banking consolidation, the 2009 Sanusi-led regulatory measures and the appointment of Godwin Emefiele as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2014. Accordingly, policy instrument transmission tests were conducted along three scenarios – 2004, 2009 and 2014 – to evaluate the changes that might have been imposed on the policy transmission mechanism by the reforms. Under the 2004 consolidation scenario, the reforms strengthened only the interest rate anchor (monetary policy rate), causing it to be effective in influencing credit to the private sector (CPS). Innovations in other monetary policy instruments led to insignificant responses in the outcome variables. Even base money, which previously impacted both prices and credit to the private sector, became insignificant and ineffective after 2004. Sanusi’s regime did not strengthen the impact of any of the monetary policy instruments on prices and credit to the private sector. Base money, which impacted outcome variables in some periods before 2009, became insignificant thereafter.Similarly, the 2014 development and sectoral support programmes under Emefiele also did not strengthen monetary policy instruments. Overall, the study affirms the position that monetary policy reforms may not always strengthen policy instruments to regulate or influence prices and credit to the private sector, especially when the transmission is indirect.
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Afrique SPS XXV Seminar Papers (French)
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-01-22) Pritchett, Lant; Behrman, Jere R.; Mwabu, Germano; Lucas, Adrienne; Ipapa, Gerald
Ce travail global comporte trois parties distinctes qui, ensemble, constituent une proposition de structure pour une approche prospective de la recherche sur le capital humain en Afrique subsaharienne. Deux mises en garde s'imposent. Il s'agit plutôt de l'évaluation d'une personne sur : (i) les grandes questions urgentes, politiques et pratiques ; et (ii) un point de vue sur la voie à suivre pour la recherche sur ces questions.Deuxièmement, cet ouvrage en trois parties est l'expression de mon propre point de vue sur les principales questions et, en tant que tel, il diffère du point de vue "dominant" (des économistes et des spécialistes de l'éducation) sur l'éducation et la croissance économique. Mon objectif n'est pas d'exprimer un "consensus" ni que le lecteur "adopte" simplement mon point de vue. J'espère plutôt qu'en présentant mon point de vue critique et distinctif sur des questions importantes, j'encourage le lecteur à façonner son propre point de vue, un point de vue basé sur son propre jugement de ce qui est important dans le contexte de son pays (et de sa région) et donc à ne pas simplement adopter le paradigme existant de l'économie ou de l'éducation sur la politique comme base de sa recherche (qui est, on le comprend, une tentation professionnelle puissante).1 Je préconise explicitement une voie à suivre pour la recherche sur le capital humain qui modifie le paradigme actuel du "capital humain" de trois manières. L'ouvrage classique de Thomas Kuhn, La structure des révolutions scientifiques, établit une distinction nette entre la "science normale" et le fait de faire sortir patiemment les questions soulevées dans le cadre du paradigme dominant (par exemple, la gravité newtonienne ou la physique des particules antérieure à la mécanique quantique). La "science normale" consiste également à voir si le paradigme peut être élargi, modifié et bricolé pour tenir compte des anomalies factuelles observées et pour élargir la gamme des phénomènes expliqués par le paradigme dominant. Mais dans les termes de Kuhn, un "changement de paradigme" modifie le cadre et les idées de base sur les phénomènes sous-jacents, ce qui modifie la façon dont les anomalies sont perçues et crée un nouvel ensemble de questions qu'une nouvelle "science normale" doit aborder, tout en espérant "englober" et donc être capable d'expliquer tout ce que le paradigme précédent pouvait expliquer. Des exemples évidents de changements de paradigme sont le passage de la gravité newtonienne à la relativité générale d'Einstein, le passage de la mécanique classique à la mécanique quantique, l'idée de l'évolution par la sélection naturelle comme explication des variations entre les espèces, la compréhension de la structure de l'ADN. La partie I affirme que le paradigme existant dans les discussions sur l'acquisition du capital humain s'est concentré sur la volonté de scolarisation universelle et sur l'élargissement de l'accès et du niveau d'études. Cette orientation a été couronnée de succès. L'expansion de la scolarisation en Afrique subsaharienne (ASS) au cours des dernières décennies a été d'une rapidité impressionnante, en termes de pourcentage de croissance, bien plus rapide que dans les autres régions du monde, parce que l'ASS, au moment de l'indépendance politique, a commencé loin derrière la plupart des autres régions. Cependant, le paradigme doit changer car "investir dans le capital humain", qui se concentre implicitement sur l'acquisition de compétences appréciées, a souvent été traité comme l'équivalent de "dépenser pour l'école" et cette élision conceptuelle a produit des résultats très mitigés sur l'apprentissage et la création de compétences cognitives, qui étaient, et sont, considérées comme un objectif important de la scolarisation. Cette section se concentre donc sur certains faits relatifs à la scolarisation et à l'apprentissage, en mettant l'accent sur la question de savoir si : (i) l'"Afrique subsaharienne" s'est distinguée en tant que région ; et (ii) l'hétérogénéité de l'Afrique subsaharienne, tant dans les sous-régions que dans les pays, qui rend les généralisations sur l'Afrique subsaharienne problématiques (voire carrément inutiles). La conclusion est qu'il faut changera le modèle « cumulatif » brut selon lequel "investir dans le capital humain" signifie exclusivement : (i) plus d'années passées à l'école ; et (ii) plus de dépenses pour l'école. "Investir dans le capital humain doit signifier : (i) l'acquisition de compétences, de capacités et de dispositions valorisées ; et (ii) des dépenses efficaces. Cela implique trois changements majeurs dans le paradigme de la recherche : (i) cesser d'utiliser "l'année de scolarisation" comme le principal "résultat" à atteindre ; (ii) cesser d'utiliser une "fonction de production de l'éducation" naïve pour évaluer l'impact des intrants en faveur d'une approche systémique ; et (iii) dans le cadre de cette approche, travailler à un modèle positif plus réaliste de la politique de l'apprentissage. La deuxième partie propose une approche fondée sur le cycle de vie comme cadre général de la question du capital humain en Afrique. Dans cette approche du cycle de vie, je propose deux périodes de base, une phase "d'accumulation" et une phase "d'utilisation". La phase d'accumulation divise la période allant de la conception/naissance à l'âge adulte en sous-périodes et en décisions de transition (par exemple, les 1000 premiers jours, l'entrée à l'école, le passage du primaire au secondaire) qui affectent l'accumulation du capital humain. Cela soulève un ensemble de questions spécifiques à chaque période. La deuxième période de base est celle de "l'utilisation (et de l'acquisition continue) du capital humain, c'est-à-dire la période beaucoup plus longue de la vie humaine, de la jeunesse à l'âge adulte, à la vieillesse et finalement, dans le jargon des économistes, à l'inévitable Cap T." Cette section commence par la transition "école-travail" et les différences très délicates entre les individus dans le "mélange" ou les âges de transition, de 15 à 25 ans par exemple, puis dans les parcours professionnels, les transitions d'emploi, etc. Ce qui est très différent dans ces périodes (et leurs sous-périodes), c'est dans une large mesure les outils et leviers "politiques et programmatiques" pour améliorer les résultats et leurs modes d'engagement et de contact avec l'enfant, ainsi que le mélange relatif d'engagement dans trois grandes catégories d'"institutions" (soit sociales",tatiques/gouvernementales" et "économiques"). En particulier, je pense qu'un projet sur le capital humain en Afrique devrait reconnaître le rôle très important dans le capital humain de la manière dont les capacités et les compétences qui augmentent le capital humain sont acquises quand on est jeune (et elles couvrent toute la gamme des aptitudes, compétences, valeurs, dispositions, attitudes et traits de caractère "doux" et "durs") et comment ces capacités individuelles sont intégrées de manière productive (ou non) dans divers rôles à l'âge adulte : parents, dirigeants communautaires, citoyens, travailleurs, entrepreneurs, dirigeants politiques, leaders d'opinion, etc. En d'autres termes, le "capital humain en Afrique" devrait inclure à la fois la manière dont le capital humain est formé, développé et créé en Afrique, mais aussi la manière dont ce capital humain est déployé, façonné et utilisé en Afrique pour permettre aux individus de promouvoir leur bien-être, celui de leur famille, de leur communauté, de leur ville, de leur région et de leur pays.La troisième partie traite de l'"utilisation" du capital humain. La première partie traite principalement de l'acquisition de capacités chez les jeunes et en particulier de l'acquisition de compétences cognitives dans le cadre de la scolarité formelle de la maternelle à la 12e année. La partie II élargit ce sujet pour inclure à la fois la période avant la maternelle et la douzième année et la période après la maternelle. Mon argument est que les défis auxquels l'Afrique est confrontée se situent au moins autant dans la phase d'"utilisation" que dans la phase d'"accumulation" et que, sans amélioration de l'"utilisation", c'est-à-dire de la manière dont le travail et le capital humain sont déployés de manière productive dans l'économie, de nouveaux progrès en matière d'accumulation pourraient être d'une valeur limitée (voire, pourrait-on craindre, contre-productifs). Cela suggère à son tour un changement dans la recherche, qui s'écarte des simples vues "cumulatifs" du capital humain représenté par un simple agrégat de "facteurs" de "capital" et de "capital humain" dans les modèles de croissance tels que le modèle Solow/Swann, pour développer la recherche sur les liens entre les mesures et les types de capital humain et les déterminants plus profonds de l'évolution de la productivité économique. Nous ne pouvons ignorer que la principale raison pour laquelle le capital humain est faible en Afrique est que le capital humain est incorporé dans les personnes qui travaillent en Afrique.
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The Effect of Intra African Immigration on Productivity in Africa
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-01-12) Gnimassoun, Blaise
Contrary to popular belief, many Africans who migrate stays in Africa. In a context of low trade openness between African countries and high differences in the prices of goods and factors, intra-African immigration could theoretically play an important role. This paper aims to study the impact of intra-African immigration on labour productivity in Africa, as well as its macroeconomic and sectoral components. Empirically, I rely on a panel of 187 countries, including 53 African countries, over the period 1990‒2019, and a gravity-based 2SLS approach to deal with endogeneity. The results show that intra-African immigration has a positive, significant, and robust impact on labour productivity in Africa. This impact is greater than the effect of immigration in a global sample, and essentially passes through the improvement in total factor productivity and capital efficiency. While immigration tends to deteriorate capital productivity in the world sample, intra-African immigration improves capital productivity in Africa. Furthermore, the results reveal that the service sector is the one that benefits from the positive effect of intra-African immigration in Africa.
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Women Empowerment in Agriculture and Child Nutrition Evidence from Ethiopia
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-15) Tesfay, Gebremeskel Berhane; Abidoye, Babatunde O
Child nutrition is a pressing issue in Ethiopia. Reports show that 28% of child deaths are associated with under-nutrition, where 38.0% of children under five years are stunted, 23.6% underweight, 9.9% are wasting, and anaemia prevalence among under-five children is extremely high at 57.0%. This paper examines the impact of women's empowerment in agriculture on intra-gender nutritional outcomes of children below five years of age. We use a two-round survey panel data (baseline in 2013 and midline in 2015) of the Women Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI)1 collected by IFPRI, Central Statistics Agency of Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa University in the Feed-the-Future and non-Feed-the-Future zones in Ethiopia. The primary objective is to examine whether an empowered woman can influence the household decision for better nutritional outcomes for the household members. The allocation decision is obviously influenced by unobserved individual-specific effects such as child gender preference and community variables. We applied the correlated random effects panel model with instrumental variables method to estimate the impact of women's empowerment in agriculture on children's nutrition outcomes. To identify which empowerment domain has a larger effect on intra-gender child nutritional outcomes, we separately estimate the five disempowerment scores on child nutrition outcomes. Nutrition outcomes, in this case, Weight-for-age z-score (waz06), Length/height-for age z-score (whz06), Weight-for-length/height z-score (haz06), and Child Dietary Diversity Score on the interaction variable of women empowerment in agriculture and gender dummy indicated dissimilar evidence, implying that women empowerment in agriculture, and gender dummy interacted with women empowerment does not show a gender-biased effect on child nutrition outcomes. Similarly, child nutrition outcomes are improved by programme interventions but with no bias to gender. The five domains2 of disempowerment score negatively correlate with child nutrition outcomes, but with no gender-biased effect. Therefore, these results suggest that exerting additional efforts on women's empowerment in agriculture can improve child nutrition outcomes without gender bias.
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Horizontal Equity in the Use of Maternal Health Services in Cameroon
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-15) Josiane, Saleu Feumeni
An equitable healthcare system should be the health policy goal of all countries. The objective of this study is to measure horizontal equity in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon from 2004 to 2018. Specifically, it aims to determine the level of inequity in assistance during delivery and in the intake of tetanus vaccine from 2004 to 2018. It identifies sources of inequity in assistance during delivery and at the intake of tetanus vaccine. To accomplish this, we used the indirect standardization of health care method and the 2004, 2011, and 2018 Demographic and Health Surveys. The results show that there are significant inequities in wealth, education, region of residence, and in the access to the nearest health facilities. Furthermore, sociodemographic and economic inequities are associated with health care utilization inequities. A health policy implementation monitoring team is therefore essential if the observed inequities in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon are to be significantly reduced.
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Financial Inclusion and Resilience to COVID-19 Economic Shocks in Nigeria
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Adeniran, Adedeji P.; Muthinja, Moses M.
We examine the role of financial inclusion, ownership of bank accounts, and previous use of formal financial saving facilities as a resilience factor in the effect of COVID-19 on households' welfare in Nigeria. Using a novel data set that tracks food security among families in Nigeria before and during COVID-19, we find a negative effect of COVID-19 on welfare. The impact is more severe among male-headed households, those living in the southern region of Nigeria, and lower educated households. We also test how financial inclusion mitigates this effect through a triple difference analysis in which the households that are financially included and in non-agricultural sector are considered the treatment group. Financial inclusion did not support resilience to shock among non-agricultural homes. Given the magnitude and multisectoral dimension of the COVID-19 shock, financial inclusion was not enough to mitigate the effect. This, therefore, points to a role for stronger government support in a large shock like COVID-19.
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Food Security Effects of Food and Agricultural Inputs Trade Shocks from the Russia-Ukraine Region in South Africa and Mozambique: Exploring the Roles of the Maputo Corridor, SADC, and Continental Sources
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Ngepah, Nicholas
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had significant implications for global food and nutrition security, particularly in Mozambique and South Africa. This study examines the extent and the causes of food and nutrition insecurity in both countries with an econometric focus on the role of external trade shocks from the Russia-Ukraine region relative to other regions. It considers the potential contribution of the Maputo Corridor in alleviating food insecurity. The findings reveal that Mozambique faces higher levels of food insecurity compared to South Africa, with limited access to food due to poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and climate change impacts. Similarly, South Africa experiences food insecurity challenges, particularly at the household level, resulting from inequality, inadequate infrastructure, and market concentration. These internal factors should be tackled through sustainable agricultural practices, infrastructure development, market competition, and supportive macroeconomic policies. The econometric results indicate that the disruption of inputs imports has a more significant impact than direct food imports, with Mozambique being affected more than South Africa. While both countries rely on imports from Ukraine and Russia, the study suggests that alternative sources within Africa and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region can mitigate the impact of trade shocks. Additionally, the establishment and enhancement of the Maputo Corridor play a crucial role in improving food security, particularly for Mozambique. The study recommends strengthening trade linkages within the Maputo Corridor, SADC, and Africa to enhance food security. Challenges to the potential of the corridor, such as trade imbalance, limited infrastructure, and weak institutional frameworks, need to be addressed through diversifying the agricultural sector, improving transportation infrastructure, promoting regional cooperation, and streamlining implementation. Overall, the study highlights the importance of addressing internal factors, diversifying trade partnerships, and leveraging regional cooperation to ensure long-term food and nutrition security in the face of external shocks such as the Russian-Ukraine war.
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Impacts of the Ukraine Crises on Food Security in Kenya and Ethiopia: Options for Regional Trade Collaboration
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Geda, Alemayehu; Musyoka, Michael Philliph
The world economy experienced a slowdown in growth as from 2018 driven by the negative effects of the novel corona virus. Short-term policy responses and the global slowdown have had major impacts on growth, value chains, incomes, trade, poverty, and consumption. Sub-Saharan Africa suffered modest effects of the pandemic and is recovering from the slowdown. This recovery is, however, likely to be affected by the Russian-Ukraine war. The years running up to the COVID-19, Ethiopia and Kenya, like all other developing countries, were a step behind in achieving equitable access to food for all. Now, the effects of the COVID-19 are still lurking, and the Russian-Ukraine war put the two countries steps away from ensuring equitable access to food for all; and in both countries, ravaging drought and high inflation is likely to exacerbate poverty and food insecurity, demeaning the gains made towards SDG 2: Zero Hunger by 2030. The impacts of rising poverty and reduced livelihoods are reflected clearly in rising levels of food insecurity and decreasing diet quality. For example, in Kenya, the national poverty head count ration increased by 13 percentage points, from 28.9% in the pre COVID-19 (2019) to 41.9% in 2020, with income losses more pronounced in urban than rural areas (Nafula et al., 2020). The estimation for Ethiopia also shows that the poverty rate has increased by 10 (in mild scenario) to 15 percentage points or by about 15 million people (worst scenario) due to the COVID-19 effect (Alemayheu, 2021
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Gendered Analysis of Households’ Uptake of Agricultural Technology, Production, and Food Consumption in Rural Nigeria
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Ngozi, Atata Scholastica; Belmondo, Tanankem Voufo; Uchenna, Efobi; Emmanuel, Orkoh
The literature suggests marked gender inequality in the use of agricultural technology despite the availability of evidence that women could be as productive as men when given equal access to agricultural resources. This underscores an urgent need to consider improving women’s access to agricultural technology to ensure sustainable provision of food for all people and particularly those in developing countries. This study addresses two specific objectives: (a) it examines gender differences in households’ use of farm-level technology (herbicide, pesticide, and inorganic fertilizer) and (b) it assesses the impact of the uptake of agricultural technology on farm production and food consumption with particular attention to the gender of the household head. The results of the Three Stage Least Squares (3SLS) regression reveal that households’ uptake of agricultural technology has a significant positive effect on their dietary diversity and food consumption expenditure per capita due to increased farm production. While these results are consistent regardless of the gender of the household head, the extent of effects for female-headed households are almost twice those for male-headed households. Therefore, an essential policy implication of our result is that the government could use input subsidies to address some of the gender gaps with regard to agricultural technology access and use. Such efforts address any entrenched inequalities in women’s access to agricultural production resources and consider other socioeconomic factors such as education and landholding which contribute to gender inequality in agricultural technology uptake.
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Tea Prices and Household Consumption Patterns in Tanzania
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Nchake, Mamello A.; Mtenga, Threza L.
Tea production is a significant contributor to Tanzania's output and income. The country is a price taker in regional and international tea markets, and this makes it vulnerable to price shocks, which can have a detrimental impact on smallholder farmers, especially those who heavily rely on tea production for their income. This vulnerability is particularly critical for net producers who lack alternative income sources, especially in rural areas. The study uses a panel dataset from the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS), collected over the periods 2008-2009, 2010-2011 and 2012-2013. The study's main findings indicate that tea price shocks have a strong negative effect on consumption patterns of smallholder farming households in Tanzania. The results also highlight that the impact of price shocks is not uniform across all households. It varies based on factors such as the gender of the household head and the location (rural or urban). The study underscores the importance of government intervention to support households affected by price shocks. Safety net programmes and welfare management initiatives can be vital in assisting these households to cope with economic uncertainties. Moreover, policies that encourage savings and the accumulation of productive assets can serve as a cushion against future shocks. Recognizing the variations in the effects of price volatility among different households, the study suggests the need for policies and strategies that are specifically designed to address the uncertainties in the tea market. This implies a nuanced approach to policies that address the diverse needs and vulnerabilities of tea-producing households.
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Investigating the Gender Wage Gap in the Nigerian Labour Market: A Distributional Approach
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Nwosu, Emmanuel O.; Orji, Anthony Orji
This study investigates the gender wage gap in Nigeria by extending the focus of the existing literature in two ways. First, we apply an extension of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition that relies on recentred influence function (RIF) regressions to analyze the gender wage gap at all points along the wage distribution. Second, we investigate changes in the gender wage gap between 2003/2004 and 2018/2019. The results unambiguously show that there is a significant gender wage gap in favour of men in Nigeria. This gap is statistically significant at all points of the wage distribution. Over time, we find that most of the wage difference is significantly accounted for by the wage structure effect, while the composition effect accounted for the wage gap at the lower end of the wage distribution during 2018/19. We also found a general decline in the gender wage gap along the entire wage distribution. In 2018/19, the gap is bigger at the bottom than at the top of the wage distribution, which is evidence in favour of a sticky floor in the Nigerian labour market. In terms of the contributions of individual covariates, we found that urban residence, unionization, education, public sector employment, and wage employment in agriculture has a significant reducing effect on the wage gap in favour of women. To address the gender wage gap in Nigeria, policy should focus more on ways to improve human capital among women and ensuring women are not segregated in top positions at the workplace.
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Horizontal Equity in the Use of Maternal Health Services in Cameroon
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Josiane, Saleu Feumeni
An equitable healthcare system should be the health policy goal of all countries. The objective of this study is to measure horizontal equity in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon from 2004 to 2018. Specifically, it aims to determine the level of inequity in assistance during delivery and in the intake of tetanus vaccine from 2004 to 2018. It identifies sources of inequity in assistance during delivery and at the intake of tetanus vaccine. To accomplish this, we used the indirect standardization of health care method and the 2004, 2011, and 2018 Demographic and Health Surveys. The results show that there are significant An equitable healthcare system should be the health policy goal of all countries. The objective of this study is to measure horizontal equity in the use of maternal health services in Cameroon from 2004 to 2018. Specifically, it aims to determine the level of inequity in assistance during delivery and in the intake of tetanus vaccine from 2004 to 2018. It identifies sources of inequity in assistance during delivery and at the intake of tetanus vaccine. To accomplish this, we used the indirect standardization of health care method and the 2004, 2011, and 2018 Demographic and Health Surveys. The results show that there are significant
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The Determinants of Protective Behaviours during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Benin
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-12-13) Dedewanou, F. Antoine
This paper investigates the determinants of protective behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in Benin. We use data from online and phone surveys collected during the period 13 September 2020 ‒ 1 October 2020 among Benin citizens aged 18 years and older. Trust in government, beliefs about others' compliance and employment status are significant determinants of compliance with the precautionary measures such as handwashing and social distancing. We also document significant association between trust in government and media use. These findings, therefore, suggest that the Government of Benin's messages should focus on developing and maintaining trust among the public by providing transparent, coherent, clear, timely, and accurate information that reduces people's uncertainty and enhances compliance. Two-way communication between the government and citizens can act as bridge to ensure public engagement and disseminate information.