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1. Policy Briefs
Concise summaries that present research findings and policy recommendations on key economic issues to inform policymakers and stakeholders.
2. Research Papers
In-depth studies and scholarly articles that explore various aspects of economic theories and empirical research, contributing to academic discourse and understanding.
3. Working Papers
Preliminary reports on ongoing research that are circulated to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication.
4. Theses and Dissertations:
CPP Thesis: Rigorous academic research focused on pertinent policy issues, typically by candidates of the Collaborative PhD Program. CMAP Thesis: Scholarly works by Master's candidates involved in the Collaborative Master's in Economics Program, showcasing original research in the Economics sector. CMAAE Thesis: Advanced research endeavors by Master's students under the Collaborative Master's in Agricultural and Applied Economics, contributing to knowledge in agricultural economics and related fields CMAAE Thesis
5. Senior Policy Seminar papers
African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) holds a Senior Policy Seminar annually. This conference is hosted by AERC and sometimes jointly with a partner. AERC convenes this forum to provide high level African policy makers the opportunity to come together to dialogue on the results of research conducted by AERC and its affiliates, exchange policy experiences and interact with the researchers in an atmosphere of peers. The themes of these seminars are selected on the basis of topicality and contemporary interest to African policy making.
6. Other Publications
A diverse range of documents including, but not limited to, conference papers, book chapters, and research updates that do not fall under the conventional categories.

Recent Submissions

Publication

Access to Credit and Agricultural Productivity

(AERC, 2026) Achille Barnabé ASSOUTO; Dewanou Jean-Luc HOUNGBEME

Access to agricultural credit remains a critical challenge in developing countries, limiting the adoption of modern technologies essential for productivity growth. This study investigates the impact of credit access on agricultural productivity among maize producers in Benin, utilizing data from a 2016 survey conducted by the National Agricultural Research Institute of Benin. Employing an endogenous switching regression model, the analysis accounts for selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that access to credit increases productivity by 40.07% per hectare and 31.97% per FCFA invested. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive policies to enhance agricultural financing and productivity.

Publication

Identifying Institutional Structures for Data Policy and Governance Frameworks: Case for The Education Sector in Kenya

(AERC, 2026) Eldah Onsomu; Gideon Nyakundi; Japheth Kathenge

The population aged 35 years and below constitutes 75% of the population in Kenya, with 36.1% of the population aged between 15 and 35 years, presenting a significant development opportunity. If properly educated and skilled, this demographic could drive innovation, productivity, and sustainable development. However, education systems across the sub-Saharan region, Kenya included, often suffer from inefficiencies that stem from weak data coordination and management. This study aims to critically assess the state of data governance in Kenya’s education sector and the effects on education outcomes. Five foundational pillars of data governance—Roles and Responsibilities, Privacy Standards, Policies, Tools and Practices, and Processes and Procedures—were assessed using six key operational dimensions. The overall Data Governance Index (DGI) shows a clear and positive relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI) across Kenya’s counties, confirming that counties with stronger data governance frameworks tend to achieve higher levels of education outcomes and development. Counties with well-structured data systems—characterized by high data quality, accessibility, timeliness, security, metadata documentation, and stewardship—demonstrate stronger planning capabilities, more efficient service delivery, and better outcomes in the education sector. However, main constraints affecting data governance in the education sector include: Undefined roles and responsibilities in counties; Lack of dedicated data teams and committees; Inconsistent funding for data leadership and capacity building; Incomplete or outdated metadata in counties; Lack of standard documentation guidelines and tools and Limited staff awareness and technical capacity. Interventions towards improving data governance in the education sector include: implementing mandatory data quality checks and validation protocols; automating collection processes to reduce manual errors; and providing training on data accuracy and integrity. Enforce encryption, access controls, and multi-factor authentication; Provide regular staff training on cybersecurity; Monitor and report compliance with data protection laws. Develop open-access platforms for education data; Standardize accessibility policies across counties; Create user feedback channels for improvement; Enforce routine data submission timelines; Invest in mobile data collection tools and dashboards; Schedule periodic data audits; Institutionalize stewardship roles and guidelines; Form cross-sectoral education data committees; Allocate dedicated budget lines for data leadership activities; Adopt national metadata standards; Train staff on metadata use and documentation; Establish centralized metadata repositories per county.

Publication

SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE COMMERCIALIZATION DYNAMICS UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL ETHIOPIA

(AERC, 2026) Takesure Tozooneyi; Clifton Makate

Smallholder crop commercialization, which implies the engagement of farmers with output markets, has been for long a popular development policy for alleviating rural poverty in many countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. The success of smallholder crop commercialization initiatives lies in developing robust value chains that link farmers to inputs and outputs markets, by so doing improving their welfare from the consequent market-based exchanges. However, the development of these value chains must overcome systemic investment risks. One such risk is climate risk, particularly rainfall, temperature variability, and shocks (e.g., drought and heat stress). Commercialization dynamics under changing climate remain largely under-explored in extant literature. This study explores how smallholder commercialization decisions and outcomes are evolving under elevated climate risk exposure and other socioeconomic challenges affecting smallholders in Ethiopia. Precisely, we evaluate the dynamics of the influence of long-term climate variability and recurrent climate shocks in driving crop output market participation in Ethiopia. The study uses longitudinal household panel data for Ethiopia spanning seven years (2012-2019), complemented with historical climate data for over 30 years (1980-2018). We rely on measures of the degree of participation in output markets as indicators of agricultural commercialization. We apply appropriate latent variables models in a Correlated Random Effects framework, which helps us address the potential endogeneity problem associated with output market participation decisions emanating from unobservable household heterogeneity. Results reveal recurrent climate variability and specific shocks (drought, flood, and heat stress) to strongly influence crop output commercialization. Also, investments in commercial input purchases offer resilience to farmers and help sustain output market participation under climate variability and stress. Efforts to upgrade smallholder agricultural value chains should be in tandem with steps toward protecting production from climate risks.

Publication

COVID-19 Shock, Social Protection, and Food Insecurity in Nigeria

(AERC, 2026) Pouirkèta Rita NIKIEMA,; Khadijat Busola AMOLEGBE,; Gbêtondji Melaine Armel NONVIDE

We seek to understand the effect of COVID-19 and assess the effects of social protection in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 shock on household food insecurity status. We employed the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Survey for Nigeria, focusing on the dataset collected before the COVID-19 shock and during the post-COVID-19 phone survey. We employed a difference-in-differences method and used all the individual measures of food insecurity. We also explored the heterogeneous effects of social protection across the gender of the recipient, household location, and wealth status. Our results show that food insecurity is greater in all households after the pandemic shock. We found that social protection is effective at mitigating the effects of the pandemic and that the effect is greater for cash assistance. The mitigating effect is greater among female-headed households, poor households, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming. The findings of this study highlight the necessity of having a well-organized social protection programme. In particular, policies aimed at promoting cash assistance among female-headed households, poor individuals, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming can have important implications for improving the food security of households in Nigeria.

Publication

Economic Well-Being of Refugees and Nationals in Kenya: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis

(AERC, 2026) SULEIMAN HASSAN MAALIM

This study addresses the economic well-being of refugees and host communities in Kenya, highlighting a significant gap in existing empirical findings due to the fragmented approach of previous research. By conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis, the study examines the welfare determinants of refugees living in various setups; urban and camp environments alongside Kenyan households. Utilizing longitudinal panel data, the research aims to provide dynamic insights into the factors influencing economic stability and resilience among these populations. The analysis reveals critical discrepancies in service provision and experiences of discrimination faced by refugees, exacerbated by language barriers and legal challenges in accessing essential services. Key findings indicate that income and economic participation are significant predictors of well-being, with urban refugees demonstrating higher sensitivity to income changes compared to their camp counterparts. Additionally, larger household sizes negatively impact welfare, while education levels and gender dynamics play crucial roles in determining household well-being. The study emphasizes the importance of tailored interventions that enhance economic empowerment, particularly for women-headed households, and improve access to education and health services. Furthermore, fostering partnerships between NGOs and local governments is essential for creating a supportive environment that addresses the unique needs of refugees. Overall, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding refugee welfare in Kenya and offers policy recommendations aimed at promoting equity and facilitating the integration of refugees into host communities.

Publication

Taxation and Capital Flight in Cameroon

(AERC, 2026-02) DONGMO ZAMKE Jonas Juléo

This article presents a new facet of the relationship between natural resources and capital flight. The objective of the study is to analyse the role played by regulations on natural resource exploitation in the level of capital flight in Cameroon. This objective allows us to explore the impact of tax reforms on the level of capital flight and, consequently, on the volume of rent derived from natural resource exploitation. An analysis of the historical evolution of Cameroon's tax system and capital flight between 1985 and 2008 has highlighted a series of reforms to the tax system (oil and forestry) that took place in Cameroon in 1999. The synthetic control method developed by Alberto Abadie was used to examine the impact of these reforms on the level of capital flight in Cameroon. The main finding was that improvements to the tax regime for natural resource exploitation led to a substantial average decline in the level of capital flight from the country. In view of this finding, we suggest that the Cameroonian government place particular emphasis on the application of the current tax regime and explore the avenues for optimisation proposed in the rest of the study.

Publication

Unlocking the Potential of Food SMEs to Boost Income and Food Security in South Africa

(AERC, 2026) Selma T. Karuaihe; Wegayehu Fitawek; Enoch Owusu-Sekyere; Herbert Ntuli; Hettie C. Schönfeldt

From the business side, women dominate the food SME sector in South Africa, with majority being Black South Africans. • The type of food SME (i.e., spaza shops, restaurants and fruit and vegetables) has a significant impact on income1. ● SMEs operating restaurants generate the highest weekly income, making cooked foods more profitable than selling fruits and vegetables, which is the least profitable of all. ● In terms of food security, nearly half (48%) of households had an adequate diet, consuming more than six food groups in the study area. ● The food security status of the household was determined by multiple socio-economic factors, including the household age, sex, education level, family size, ethnicity, number of working adults, household income and food expenditure. ● The informal food markets play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, with over 60% of consumers purchasing fruits and vegetables from street vendors. ● Spaza shops serve as key sources of grains, nuts, legumes, dairy, poultry, and meat, making them essential for food accessibility and affordability in low-income communities. • Policy recommendations to support SMEs selling fruits and vegetables should include training on proper handling, cooling, and temperature management of fresh produce

Publication

Strengthening Rural Ugandan Diets Through Improved Market Food Environments

(AERC, 2026) Racheal Namulondo; Bernard Bashaasha; Rosemary Isoto Emegu; Edgar Agaba

In addition to own production, rural populations in SSA are acquiring an increasing part of their food from local markets, making the market food environment an important contributor to household diet diversity. • The limited food variety that characterizes rural food markets, in Uganda, translates to limited diet diversity with households characteristically consuming items from two staple food groups only. • Availability of a variety of food in nearby/village markets positively influences rural household food purchase diversity. • Policy support should encourage increased - production of non-staple foods for the rural markets and market participation. But since rural households depend largely on staple foods, interventions should be focused on increasing production and sell of nutrient-dense staples, for instance, throu

Publication

Financial Development and Income Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa : The Role of Institutional Quality

(AERC, 2026) Soumtang Bimé Valentine; Pierre Christian Tsopmo

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of institutional quality on the financial development- income inequality nexus in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To this end, we estimate a dynamic panel model using data from thirty-three (33) SSA countries between 1990 and 2019 employing the generalized method of moments in system. To capture financial development, we use its fourth dimensions namely depth, efficiency, access and stability, and we construct a composite index using principal component analysis. We also use institutional quality indicators. The results show that the poor quality of institutions in SSA countries reduce the effectiveness of financial development in terms of income inequality overall. However, this effect is mitigated by financial efficiency. These results are consistent with the robustness tests. These results call for the implementation of programs to strengthen institutional quality in SSA countries.

Publication

Analysis of the Impact of Irrigation on the Nutritional Status of Rice Farming Households in the Iffou Region of Côte D'ivoire

(AERC, 2026) Allou Nazaire N'DRI; Assi J.C. KIMOU

This paper investigates the impact of irrigation on the nutritional status of rice farming households in M'Bahiakro, which is an irrigated rice-producing area. It utilizes data from a survey of rice farmers conducted by the Ivorian Centre for Economic and Social Research (CIRES) and the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). The empirical strategy first estimates a Probit model to determine drivers of participation in the irrigation system. Second, it assesses the impact of irrigation on rice production and rice income using an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR). Descriptive statistics show that producers participating in the irrigation system have higher productivity levels and higher income compared to non-participant farmers. Similarly, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) is higher among households that use irrigation compared to non-participating households. The results of the probit model estimation show that education, training, extension services, off-farm activities, and membership in an agricultural cooperative are the main determinants of participation in irrigation. The results of the impact assessment indicate no significant effect of the irrigation system on food diversity. The impact estimation on rice production and household income shows that participation in the irrigation system has a positive effect on both income and rice production for participants. These findings reveal a positive effect of irrigation on beneficiaries, which implies an interest in the irrigation program for policymakers and rice farmers.

Publication

How Effective is Tackling Illicit Financial Flows in Africa? Evidence from Spatial Panel Analysis

(AERC, 2026-02) Alain Babatound´e; Moustapha Lawani

Sub-Saharan African countries experience high levels of illicit financial flows (IFFs), which significantly undermine domestic resource mobilization. Recognizing the transnational nature of IFFs, some Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have adopted anti-IFF instruments to address these challenges. This study inventories regional anti-IFF policies and evaluates their effectiveness in reducing IFFs and enhancing domestic resource mobilization. Expanding the World Bank Residual approach to include remittances, we estimate total IFFs at USD 3,646.7 billion (15.4% of GDP) between 1980 and 2021. Using a spatial panel model, we assess two anti-IFF instruments—anti-corruption and anti-criminality—within Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Southern African Development Community (SADC), accounting for both direct and spillover effects. Results reveal significant spatial inter-dependencies. In ECOWAS, ratifying anti-IFF instruments enhances domestic resource mobilization, with positive spillover effects in neighboring countries but no significant reduction in IFFs. In contrast, in SADC, these instruments effectively reduce IFFs while simultaneously improving domestic resource mobilization, albeit with negative spillover effects. Key policy recommendations include strengthening cross-border anti-corruption frameworks in ECOWAS, enhancing financial oversight, and improving governance structures to prevent IFF displacement. In SADC, efforts should focus on reinforcing regulatory enforcement, mitigating spillover effects through regional coordination, and balancing trade openness with financial safeguards. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated regional and continental approach to tackling IFFs in Africa.

Publication

Analysis of Gender Differences in Access to Financial Services in Burkina Faso

(AERC, 2026) Bouraima Sawadogo; Steve Douanla Meli; Evodie Esther Ngomena

This study analyzes the differences between men and women in terms of access to formal and informal financial services in Burkina Faso. More precisely, using Global Findex (2021) data collected from 1,000 households by the World Bank group, it first attempts, using logistic regressions, to analyze the impact of gender, first on the probability of access to formal financial services, then on the probability of access to formal financial services, of access to informal financial services, and finally on access to both forms of services. Then, using the multivariate decomposition method, it analyzes the gender gaps in access to these two forms of financial services. The results of logistic regressions indicate that compared to men, women are more likely to access not only informal financial services, but also both forms of financial services at the same time. Multivariate decompositions reveal the existence of gaps in access to the two forms of financial services, to the disadvantage of women. These gaps are explained, on the one hand, by differences in characteristics between the two groups, also known as the explained component, particularly standard of living and age, with regard to access to formal financial services, and, on the other hand, by differences in coefficients, also known as the unexplained component, with regard to access to informal financial services.

Publication

Foreign Direct Investment and Export Diversification in Africa: The Role of Institutional Quality

(AERC, 2026-02) GOLO Yao Nukunu

This article analyses the role of institutional quality in host countries in facilitating the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on export diversification in Africa. The analysis is based on the idea that the mixed results of existing empirical studies may be due to institutional heterogeneity and posits that improving institutional quality can intensify the benefits associated with FDI, with varying impacts across countries and/or over time. To achieve this objective, we used a two-step linear panel and a dynamic panel with interaction terms on a sample of 30 African countries covering the period 1996-2019. The sample is subdivided into subgroups according to their natural resource endowment. The results show that FDI has a positive effect on export diversification in mineral-rich and oil-producing countries. These results contradict the predictions of Asiedu and Lien (2011) and Gylfason and Zoega (2006), who argue that FDI should create either a crowding-out effect on investment in the natural resource sector and/or favourable wage differentials in the natural resource sectors, resulting in a concentration of exports in these sectors. Similarly, the quality of institutions has a direct negative effect on export diversification, partly confirming the literature that, with an abundance of strategic natural resources (such as oil), the quality of institutions is no longer an indicator of FDI attractiveness (Asiedu, 2013, Aleksynska and Havrylchyk, 2012, and Feulefack and Ngassam, 2020). On the other hand, the indirect effect of institutional quality on export diversification through FDI is positive. Countries that improve their institutions can attract more investment and strengthen their international competitiveness, which can lead to greater export diversification . Given that the quality of institutions still needs to be improved in African economies, they are unable to attract sufficient FDI to promote the diversification of their exports. Under these circumstances, it is imperative that African countries create an institutional environment that attracts sufficient FDI in order to diversify their exports

Publication

Infrastructure Diffusion and the Use of Self-Service Banking Applications: A Micro-Spatial Approach

(AERC, 2026-02) Morakinyo Adetutu; Kayode Odusanya

Self-service Banking Applications (i.e., internet and mobile banking) facilitate remote access to financial services by bank account holders while also offering productivity and cost savings for banks. In this study, we combine a unique dataset, constructed by matching geo-referenced cell tower infrastructure data and a nationally representative survey of 21,844 individuals in Nigeria, to investigate how infrastructure diffusion affects the use of Self-service Banking Applications (SSBAs). Our analysis is underpinned by a novel micro-spatial approach used to compute the number of cell towers within a radial specification of respondents’ street-level locations. After controlling for individual and regional covariates and addressing the endogeneity issue, we find that cell tower concentration increases the probability of using mobile and internet banking, although this effect is stronger for mobile banking. Our results are robust to alternative specifications for cell tower concentration. The findings of this paper underscore the view that promoting access to financial services requires implementing policies aimed at closing the digital divide associated with the diffusion of telecom infrastructure and contemporaneous technologies like smartphone devices.

Publication

Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub- Saharan African Countries

(AERC, 2025-11) Tekalign Gutu Sakketa; Muhammed A. Usman; Abbi Kedir

Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.

Publication

Is the Link between Public Debt and Private Investment Asymmetric in Kenya?

(AERC, 2026) Roseline Nyakerario Misati; Anne Wangari Kamau; Maureen Teresa Odongo; Kethi Ngoka

This study examined the relationship between public debt and private investment in Kenya, with a focus on the asymmetric effects of public debt. The study used both descriptive and empirical analysis, which was conducted using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models and annual data covering the period 1967-2022. Three conclusions can be drawn from the descriptive analysis. First, debt spikes and troughs are explainable by a diversity of factors, including policy shifts and support to state-owned enterprises, with fiscal consolidation having a minimal role. Second, foreign-financed targeted and short-term projects, particularly towards the rural areas and low-income groups, have had a high success rate. Third, among comparator countries, Kenya ranks low in public investment efficiency scores, particularly in project selection and appraisal. The empirical results show evidence of asymmetric response of private investment to public debt with heterogeneity across various components of public debt. Specifically, the results show that rising public debt, external debt, and debt servicing are detrimental to private investment in the long run. The results also showed that the impact of an increase in debt on private investment is higher than the impact of a debt reduction, suggesting that an increase in debt may not be reversed by a similar reduction in debt. The results further show that declining domestic debt significantly decreases private investment, contradicting the crowding-out theory. The study makes five recommendations. First, the use of external debt should be strategic and targeted at sectors that bolster the private sector while minimizing reliance on commercial loans. Second, there is a need for further analysis to identify and focus policy on sectors that benefit from the complementary effects of domestic debt on private investment. Third, policy interventions on public debt should be heterogeneous across different components of debt. Fourth, efficiency gains from public investment would be enhanced by focusing policy priority on project selection and appraisal. Fifth, policymakers concerned with public debt management need to take into account the possible inability to reverse public debt increases with similar amounts of decreases.

Publication

Understanding the Determinants of Mobile Money Usage and its Effect on Firm Performance: Cross-Country Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

(AERC, 2026) Joseph B. Ajefu; Adolicia Rasoarivao

A growing number of studies have examined the roles of mobile money usage in relation to firms’ outcomes, but little emphasis has been placed on the cross-country determinants of mobile money usage as well as its impact on firms’ performance. This paper examines the determinants of mobile money usage and its impacts on firms’ total sales and profits (proxied as firm performance) using a sample of firms across 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. To investigate the determinants or drivers of mobile money usage by firms in sub-Saharan Africa, this paper adopts both the ordinary least squares (OLS) method, probit model, ordered probit model approach. The paper identifies a few variables (factors) such as firm level as well as macro-level variables as determinants of mobile money usage by firms. In addition, this paper estimates the impact of mobile money on firms’ performance by adopting the ordinary least squares, and an instrumental variable (IV) estimation approach. Further, using the OLS and IV approaches, the paper finds statistically significant effect of mobile money usage on firms’ performance for the sample of firms in our analysis. The findings lend credence to the growing consensus about the relevance of mobile money in addressing issues of credit constraint of firms and its implications on firms’ performance in developing countries, especially in the context of sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication

FAILURE AND SURVIVAL OF WEST AFRICAN ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION BANKS : THE ROLE OF REGULATORY CAPITAL

(AERC, 2026) Vigninou Gammadibe

This paper analyzes the contribution of capital and its ownership structure on the failure of WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) banks. The study covers 147 banks observed over the period 2003-2017 and is based on non-parametric, semi-parametric, and parametric survival models. The results of the estimates using the partial maximum likelihood method show that the capital ratio plays a key role in the survival of banks by significantly reducing the probability of failure. Findings revealed that they can predict banking difficulties over a time horizon ranging from one to three years. Foreign ownership seems to reduce the probability of default. The increase in bank capital from 2007 seems to be accompanied by a faster acceleration of total bank assets as compared to equity. The estimates showed that low market share is an indicator of banks’ vulnerability. Based on these findings, the paper recommends special supervision of small and newly established banks with small market shares and better management of banking institutions concerning capital management and risk-taking. Furthermore, the study urges the regulator to consider the structure of the market while issuing new licenses, to avoid a highly competitive banking sector that is not conducive to the stability and survival of banks.

Publication

Household Response to Seasonal Hunger in Uganda: Evidence from National Panel Surveys

(AERC, 2026) Ibrahim Kasirye; Madina Guloba

Despite Uganda having constitutional provisions to ensure food security, a large population of Ugandans can still not meet the minimum recommended dietary intake (RDI). In addition, there are within-country variations in the number of cropping seasons, which affect continuous food availability. The study explored the correlates of seasonal hunger, an important but neglected issue within the African and Ugandan food security literature. In addition, we explored the nature of coping strategies adopted by households faced with seasonal hunger using four waves of a unique panel dataset of Ugandan households from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). We find that fertilisers significantly reduce the risk of experiencing seasonal hunger. In some estimations, having a household member engaged in wage employment is associated with an increased risk of seasonal hunger. Our results show that policies focusing on smoothing consumption or boosting productivity can help address seasonal hunger. Concerning the appropriateness of coping strategies, we find that having adequate storage is negatively associated with the seasonal hunger experience. Regarding policies, households can adopt ex-ante strategies to smooth consumption, such as keeping livestock and establishing appropriate storage facilities. Social protection interventions should thus have a livestock component. Using improved agricultural inputs should be a major focus for extension services in order to enhance productivity.

Publication

The Nexus Between Agricultural Aid and Poverty Alleviation in Sub-Saharan Africa

(AERC, 2026) N’Dri Kan David

The primary objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness of foreign public aid in reducing poverty in sub-Saharan African countries. Employing a methodological framework that encompasses linear panel and simultaneous equations models, we aim to assess the hypothesis that such aid contributes to poverty reduction by enhancing agricultural productivity. Our analysis yields evidence indicating a positive and statistically significant effect of international aid allocated to the agricultural sector on agricultural productivity. A 1% increase in aid per worker is associated with a 0.198% increase in agricultural productivity, holding other factors constant. Furthermore, our findings elucidate that increases in agricultural productivity exert a mitigating influence on poverty levels within the sub-Saharan African context. A 1% increase in agricultural productivity is associated with a 0.02 percentage point decrease in the poverty headcount ratio, on average, all else being equal. The results indicate that foreign aid affects poverty and agricultural productivity in the selected countries. Therefore, it is suggested that international donors increase their aid to foreign agriculture, focusing on methods that boost productivity. Consequently, our results highlight the imperative of maximizing the productivity-oriented outcomes of agricultural aid, thereby enhancing its effectiveness in efforts to reduce poverty.