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Access to Credit and Agricultural Productivity
(AERC, 2026) Achille Barnabé ASSOUTO; Dewanou Jean-Luc HOUNGBEME
Access to agricultural credit remains a critical challenge in developing countries, limiting the adoption of modern technologies essential for productivity growth. This study investigates the impact of credit access on agricultural productivity among maize producers in Benin, utilizing data from a 2016 survey conducted by the National Agricultural Research Institute of Benin. Employing an endogenous switching regression model, the analysis accounts for selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that access to credit increases productivity by 40.07% per hectare and 31.97% per FCFA invested. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive policies to enhance agricultural financing and productivity.
African Countries and the Brain Drain: Winners or Losers? Beyond Remittances
(AERC, 2026) Narcisse Cha’ngom
Agricultural Production Diversity and Market Access: Implications for Dietary Diversity among Smallholder Farm Households in Cameroon
(AERC, 2026) Anchang Juliana Adjem; Meliko Majory; Uwem Essia
Overnutrition, overweight, and obesity as consequences of nutrition transition are a growing concern of public policy in less developed countries, where it poses a triple burden even to rural areas battling with undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. The complex link between agriculture and nutritional outcomes has been well established. However, studies often overlook key socio-cultural dimensions of nutrition outcomes in the context of the nutrition transition and the increasing triple burden of malnutrition in rural agricultural communities. This study seeks to investigate the implications of agricultural production diversity on dietary diversity in rural smallholder farm households. We hypothesize that in addition to the contribution of production diversity and the mediating role of market access, socio-cultural factors have a significant influence on household dietary diversity and quality. Data was obtained from a cross-sectional survey of smallholder farm households in the Southwest Region, Cameroon, from 2018 to 2019. The effect of agricultural production diversity and better market access was estimated to be positive using both Generalised Poisson regression and Instrumental Variable two Stage Least Square or Instrumental Variable Poisson models. While better market access plays a positive and significant role in nutrition security and diet quality for smallholder farm households, we found that agricultural production diversity has a greater positive effect on diet outcomes than market access. Similarly, households with women empowerment indicators and better knowledge on nutrition were associated with better diet outcomes. We found a greater proportion of households with unfavourable attitudes relating to socio-cultural norms and perception. We posit that agricultural and food policies and investments should adopt an integrated approach that aligns with societal and cultural needs in promoting market access and encouraging more nutritious food choices to effectively and sustainably tackle challenges to poor nutrition. However, longitudinal studies are essential and will provide rigour on the role agricultural production diversity plays in the nutritional and health status of rural households in Cameroon.
Analysis of Gender Differences in Access to Financial Services in Burkina Faso
(AERC, 2026) Bouraima Sawadogo; Steve Douanla Meli; Evodie Esther Ngomena
This study analyzes the differences between men and women in terms of access to formal and informal financial services in Burkina Faso. More precisely, using Global Findex (2021) data collected from 1,000 households by the World Bank group, it first attempts, using logistic regressions, to analyze the impact of gender, first on the probability of access to formal financial services, then on the probability of access to formal financial services, of access to informal financial services, and finally on access to both forms of services. Then, using the multivariate decomposition method, it analyzes the gender gaps in access to these two forms of financial services. The results of logistic regressions indicate that compared to men, women are more likely to access not only informal financial services, but also both forms of financial services at the same time. Multivariate decompositions reveal the existence of gaps in access to the two forms of financial services, to the disadvantage of women. These gaps are explained, on the one hand, by differences in characteristics between the two groups, also known as the explained component, particularly standard of living and age, with regard to access to formal financial services, and, on the other hand, by differences in coefficients, also known as the unexplained component, with regard to access to informal financial services.
Analysis of the Impact of Irrigation on the Nutritional Status of Rice Farming Households in the Iffou Region of Côte D'ivoire
(AERC, 2026) Allou Nazaire N'DRI; Assi J.C. KIMOU
This paper investigates the impact of irrigation on the nutritional status of rice farming households in M'Bahiakro, which is an irrigated rice-producing area. It utilizes data from a survey of rice farmers conducted by the Ivorian Centre for Economic and Social Research (CIRES) and the International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie). The empirical strategy first estimates a Probit model to determine drivers of participation in the irrigation system. Second, it assesses the impact of irrigation on rice production and rice income using an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR). Descriptive statistics show that producers participating in the irrigation system have higher productivity levels and higher income compared to non-participant farmers. Similarly, the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) is higher among households that use irrigation compared to non-participating households. The results of the probit model estimation show that education, training, extension services, off-farm activities, and membership in an agricultural cooperative are the main determinants of participation in irrigation. The results of the impact assessment indicate no significant effect of the irrigation system on food diversity. The impact estimation on rice production and household income shows that participation in the irrigation system has a positive effect on both income and rice production for participants. These findings reveal a positive effect of irrigation on beneficiaries, which implies an interest in the irrigation program for policymakers and rice farmers.
Armed conflicts and child nutritional health outcomes: evidence from the Fulani ethnic militia (FEM) conflict in Nigeria
(AERC, 2026) Amaka Nnaji; Olukorede Abiona; Omoniyi Alimi
Increasing violent conflict has resulted in population displacement and the destruction of livelihoods, thereby hindering economic growth. This study estimates the association between early exposure to Fulani ethnic militia (FEM) conflicts and subsequent child health outcomes in Nigeria. Using nationally representative Nigerian General Household Survey data merged with georeferenced FEM conflict data, the study shows that contemporaneous exposure to FEM conflict is strongly associated with declining child health – measured in terms of WAZ (short-term measure) or HAZ (long-term measure). We also find that in-utero exposure to FEM conflict is weakly associated with declining long-term child health but not with short-term child health. Specifically, this effect is more severe in rural areas compared to urban areas. Furthermore, girls are more affected by contemporaneous FEM conflict exposure in the long-term health outcome, and boys are more susceptible to FEM conflict exposure in the short-term health outcome. Older children are more negatively affected by contemporaneous FEM conflict exposure. Agricultural productivity, food security, and access to sanitary toilet facilities appear to be the primary underlying channels of the estimated effects. Results are robust to including other conflict measures and variations in weather patterns. Findings highlight the need for conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts to resolve conflicts between farmers and herders
Assessing the Impact of Input Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Applied Political Economy Analysis
(AERC, 2026) Joseph Manzvera; Mark Manyanga
The increasing policy interests and vibrant scholarly debate surrounding the impact of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have inspired a growing literature on how input subsidies affect agricultural productivity. The available empirical evidence provides contrasting views, with one school of thought supporting input subsidies as agricultural productivity catalysts, while another school of thought views input subsidies as agricultural policies that failed to stimulate productivity but instead imposed unsustainable pressure on national fiscal resources. Therefore, understanding the extent to which input subsidies influence agricultural productivity, the prevailing effect, and the drivers behind one effect or the other is a pressing matter to guide policy and practice. As such, this study systematically reviewed existing literature on the subject matter and synthesized the evidence through an applied political economy analysis lens. Concurrently, a meta-analysis was conducted to disentangle the potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates of the impact of input subsidy programs across different countries. The findings showed that input subsidy programs contributed to boosting agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa in general. The average pooled effect size of input subsidies on crop value is US$128/ha (p<0.01). However, there exists a significant heterogeneity in the effect of input subsidy programs from one study to the other (Ι 2 = 100%). This underscored the role played by the prevailing political economy landscape and other subsidy-specific characteristics on the effectiveness of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Input subsidy programs providing input packages with both fertilizer and improved seeds, as well as the use of a voucher system, enhance the effectiveness of input subsidies. The incidences of political patronage in subsidized input distribution, on the other hand, undermine the effectiveness of input subsidies. Contingent upon these findings, it is therefore proposed that input subsidy packages should include both fertilizer and improved seeds rather than fertilizer alone. There is also a need to deliberately incorporate legume crops, both from crop diversity and soil fertility points of view. The use of a voucher system is also encouraged to strengthen transparency and increase logistics efficiency and recipient targeting, while also permitting the timely delivery of subsidized inputs to farmers. To curb political patronage, it is suggested that farmer production return forms be used in input subsidy targeting to identify productive (but resource-constrained) farmers and, as a result, remove the involvement of public officials.
Cereal Trade and Food Security: Empirical Evidence for Sub-Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025) Zahonogo, Windbeneti Arnaud
Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG2) aims to end world hunger, but Africa is currently not on track to meet this goal. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly affected, with a significant increase in undernourished people. The issue of food security is, therefore, a pressing concern, and promoting trade has been suggested as one solution. This study examines the impact of cereal import openness on the prevalence of undernourishment in 27 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000 - 2020. Using a two-stage least square instrumental variable (2SLS-IV) estimator, we find that greater cereal import openness is significantly associated with higher levels of undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa and then increased food insecurity. Our results are robust to alternative food security indicators.
Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025) Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu; Usman, Muhammed A.; Kedir, Abbi
Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.
Conflict Exposure and Human Capital Formation of Children in Selected Sub- Saharan African Countries
(AERC, 2025-11) Tekalign Gutu Sakketa; Muhammed A. Usman; Abbi Kedir
Violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has resulted in population displacement, psychological trauma, and the destruction of livelihoods, which has hindered economic growth. These events have increased in frequency and severity over time in the region. Violent conflict disrupts children’s human capital accumulation through widespread malnutrition and the disruption of social and emotional skills that should have been acquired in early childhood. This study aims to estimate the relationship between early-life exposure to violent conflict and children’s human capital formation (focusing on child health, nutrition, and schooling) in four selected SSA countries since 2003. Using nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) merged with georeferenced conflict data, the study finds that children exposed to violent conflict, measured by the number of fatalities, experience reduced human capital formation, including stunted growth, underweight status, and lower educational outcomes. Specifically, children in households exposed to violent conflict have higher dropout rates (given their enrollment) and experience delays in completing primary school. Furthermore, the impact of conflict on long-term malnutrition is particularly pronounced among young children and those living in rural areas. Limited access to health facilities during or after conflict, disruptions in livelihoods and/or markets that result in deprivations in the dietary intake of children and mothers, and the place of residence appear to be the underlying mechanisms.
COVID-19 Shock, Social Protection, and Food Insecurity in Nigeria
(AERC, 2026) Pouirkèta Rita NIKIEMA,; Khadijat Busola AMOLEGBE,; Gbêtondji Melaine Armel NONVIDE
We seek to understand the effect of COVID-19 and assess the effects of social protection in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 shock on household food insecurity status. We employed the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Survey for Nigeria, focusing on the dataset collected before the COVID-19 shock and during the post-COVID-19 phone survey. We employed a difference-in-differences method and used all the individual measures of food insecurity. We also explored the heterogeneous effects of social protection across the gender of the recipient, household location, and wealth status. Our results show that food insecurity is greater in all households after the pandemic shock. We found that social protection is effective at mitigating the effects of the pandemic and that the effect is greater for cash assistance. The mitigating effect is greater among female-headed households, poor households, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming. The findings of this study highlight the necessity of having a well-organized social protection programme. In particular, policies aimed at promoting cash assistance among female-headed households, poor individuals, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming can have important implications for improving the food security of households in Nigeria.
Decentralization and Household Prosperity in Cameroon
(AERC, 2025) Fozao, Pascaline Njungoh
Relating to the view that centralized governments are likely to be less sensitive to the needs of the local population than decentralized ones, we set out to investigate the impact of the 2010 decentralization on real total expenditures per adult equivalent – a proxy for household economic well-being (HEW). To do this, appeal is made to the pseudo-panel fixed effect model, with the panel constructed using age cohorts from the two most recent Cameroon household consumption surveys, and the unconditional quantile regression model of Firpo et al. (2009). Specifically, we report fixed effects regressions, correcting standard errors for within-prefecture and age-cohort correlations using the Jackknife estimator, at the mean, across colonial experiences, and the unconditional distribution. Results show that the adjusted exposure to the 2010 decentralization was associated significantly with improvements in household economic well-being (HEW) – in the order of 0.274 log points and 0.247 log points in the full and the labor force samples, respectively. A significant and positive responsiveness of HEW to decentralization is also recorded across expenditure percentiles, and the magnitude increases monotonically from the 10th to the 90th percentiles, except the dent seen among the median households. These results are, in essence, robust across samples (labor force, civil law, and common law samples), at the mean and across the distribution of real total expenditures per adult equivalent. More interestingly, the weighted exposure to the 2010 decentralization is more strongly associated with household economic well-being than the unweighted exposure. These findings are transmitted, at least in part, through improved social service delivery and associated labor market opportunities and these channels have important implications for alleviating poverty and curbing rural-urban migration in Cameroon and elsewhere in Africa.
Do Non-Classical Measurement Errors Affect the Effects of Farm Input Subsides on Crop Productivity? Evidence from Malawi
(AERC, 2026) Martin Limbikani Mwale
Non-classical measurement errors produce biased and inconsistent estimates in estimations. Previous studies have examined the effects of farm production on crop productivity without accounting for non-classical measurement errors. Using satellite data, which is free from neo-classical errors, this study sought to establish whether the effects of Malawi’s farm input subsidy on crop productivity are biased. The study compared results generated using satellite yields to those generated using yields reported by farmers through a survey. The study tested the sensitivity of the satellite estimates by changing the possible yields to fertilizer response rates, and the results remained consistent with the main findings. The findings revealed that the effect of farm input subsidies on crop productivity generated through survey data are upward biased. Farmers over-report yields to demonstrate that they are productive and retain their status as subsidy beneficiaries. Studies on farm input subsidies, therefore, need to pay attention to non-classical measurement errors to provide reliable results and policy advice on farm input subsidies. Furthermore, policy on farm input subsidies needs to strengthen the targeting of beneficiaries to evade inclusion and exclusion errors of productive farmers.
Does Trade Facilitation Contribute to Food Security? A Panel Data Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa
(AERC, 2026) Moukaila Mouzamilou Takpara
Food insecurity remains a serious and global concern that continues to escalate due to various factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, which have exposed structural vulnerabilities of developing economies, particularly in African countries. This paper analyses the contribution of trade facilitation through physical infrastructure, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), business environment as well as border, and transport efficiency to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis uses a sample of 36 SSA countries from 2005 to 2019 and adopts the fixed effects and the two stage least square methods. Results show that improvement in trade facilitation enhances food security in SSA. This effect is evident in the composite food security and in two dimensions (access and utilization) of food security. Similarly, trade facilitation indicators, namely business environment and ICT are the most promising in SSA's fight against food insecurity. Moreover, the results show also that countries with low rural population experienced positive effects of facilitating trade than countries with high rural population. The results highlight the need for improving regulatory environment as well as simplifying and harmonizing trade procedures to enhance food security in SSA.
Economic Impact Analysis of Morocco’s Integration to Ecowas
(AERC, 2025) Dodo, Akakpo Ayebiogbon
This study assesses imports, customs revenue, and welfare effects in ECOWAS countries following a free trade agreement with Morocco. Trade agreements are expected to increase the share of Moroccan trading to the detriment of ECOWAS producers and simultaneously lead to a drop in supply through regional production and the slowdown in regional integration. To avoid regional disintegration, ECOWAS countries should monitor sensitive products with the private sector, adapt trade policies favorable to the competitiveness of sectors of the economy with high production capacities, build the capacity of actors to be able to exploit market opportunities and encourage local consumption. The study highlighted a decline in customs revenue in ECOWAS. These negative effects on customs tariffs could set back the process of Morocco's integration into ECOWAS. Welfare losses, due to the large diversion effects generated by trade agreements, would likely be significant for consumers.
Economic Transformation and Tax Revenue Performance in SSA Countries
(AERC, 2026) Fossong Derrick; Ndamsa Dickson Thomas
Many studies have addressed the determinants of tax revenue performance, but knowledge on the causal impacts of economic transformation is nearly non-existent. This study used panel data from the World Bank Development Indicators and UNDP database over the period 1990–2021 to provide evidence on the effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance. Our panel data estimation disentangled the causal effects of economic transformation in resource-rich and non-resource-rich countries. We employed the GMM to correct the problem of dynamic endogeneity and unobserved panel heterogeneity. We further utilized the fixed and random effects to assess the robustness of the GMM estimations. GMM results indicated that economic transformation has a significant positive effect on tax revenue performance in SSA. The fixed and random effects results reported a positive and significant effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance in SSA, similar to the GMM results. We used two ICT-related transmission mechanisms: ICT adoption and ICT export/import. We found that ICT stock does mediate the effect of economic transformation on tax revenue performance. Like in resource-rich countries, economic transformation had a positive impact on tax revenue performance in non-resource-rich countries. Thus, this study recommends that SSA countries, in an effort to increase tax revenue performance, should promote economic transformation through the DEPTH (diversification, export competitiveness, productivity, technological upgrading, and human well-being). Measures to enhance ICT adoption the for e-tax system are vital in strengthening the relationship between economic transformation and tax revenue performance in SSA.
Economic Well-Being of Refugees and Nationals in Kenya: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis
(AERC, 2026) SULEIMAN HASSAN MAALIM
This study addresses the economic well-being of refugees and host communities in Kenya, highlighting a significant gap in existing empirical findings due to the fragmented approach of previous research. By conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis, the study examines the welfare determinants of refugees living in various setups; urban and camp environments alongside Kenyan households. Utilizing longitudinal panel data, the research aims to provide dynamic insights into the factors influencing economic stability and resilience among these populations. The analysis reveals critical discrepancies in service provision and experiences of discrimination faced by refugees, exacerbated by language barriers and legal challenges in accessing essential services. Key findings indicate that income and economic participation are significant predictors of well-being, with urban refugees demonstrating higher sensitivity to income changes compared to their camp counterparts. Additionally, larger household sizes negatively impact welfare, while education levels and gender dynamics play crucial roles in determining household well-being. The study emphasizes the importance of tailored interventions that enhance economic empowerment, particularly for women-headed households, and improve access to education and health services. Furthermore, fostering partnerships between NGOs and local governments is essential for creating a supportive environment that addresses the unique needs of refugees. Overall, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding refugee welfare in Kenya and offers policy recommendations aimed at promoting equity and facilitating the integration of refugees into host communities.
Effect of Competition on the Performance of Microfinance Institutions in Sub-Saharan Africa
(AERC, 2026) Tchakounte Joséphine
This study aims to analyze the effect of competition on the profitability and outreach of SSA MFIs. To achieve this objective, data were extracted from a dynamic panel of 3,105 MFI observations from the MIX market and the World Bank for the period 2000 to 2017. Applying two-stage GMM, instrument-free inference for linear regression models with endogenous regressors, pooled fixed-effects OLS and pooled random-effects OLS on these data, our results showed that competition decreases profitability (ROA and ROE) of profit-oriented and non profit MFIs. Our results also showed that competition exerts a mixed effect on the outreach (avloangni and NAB) of these institutions. However, it is important to point out the presence of a much more detrimental effect of competition on return on assets (ROA) and average loan per borrower (avloangni) for non-profit MFIs compared to that of profit-oriented MFIs. When return on equity (ROE) is considered, we observe instead a much more detrimental effect of competition on the ROE of profit-oriented MFIs compared to that of non-profit MFIs. The discovery of a positive effect of competition on the number of active borrowers (NAB) of profit-oriented and non-profit MFIs, suggest that in SSA, competition does not automatically lead to a drift in the social mission (avloangni) of MFIs, as it also enables these microfinances to increase their NAB. Given these results, policymakers in SSA countries need to improve the profitability and outreach of profit-oriented and non-profit MFIs by deploying a regulatory framework that reduces the lending rates charged in the microfinance sector.
Effect of Landownership by Women on Household Food Security in Benin
(AERC, 2025) TOSSOU, Judith Urielle
Given the extent of food insecurity among rural women and gender inequalities linked to land rights, this research examines the effect of women's land ownership on household food security in Benin. The data comes from the Global Analysis of Vulnerability and Food Security survey (AGVSA, 2017). The propensity score matching (PSM) method and endogenous switching regression are applied to a sample of approximately 6502 households, of which 21% (1366) of agricultural households included female landowners. The results estimated using the (ESR) method and the (PSM) method reveal a positive and significant effect of women's land ownership on household food security. Following the ESR and PSM method; the results reveal that the factors that significantly influence women's land ownership are age, household size, agricultural empowerment index, access to credit, and levels of "primary" and "at least" education. less secondary” and the household’s housing status. Following the ESR method, the effect of transient heterogeneity is positive; which implies that the effect of land ownership on the food security index is significantly higher for women who have land than for those who do not. The potential effect of heterogeneity in the sample reveals that women who have land property would have a higher positive food security index than women who do not have it. The results indicate the very important role of land ownership by women in resolving food insecurity in rural Benin. Given our results and to improve the level of household food security in Africa and more precisely in Benin, political decision-makers will have to favor and encourage many women to acquire not only land but also large areas of land through applicable policies and reforms. Then, political decision-makers must also put in place communication systems to encourage more women's access to agricultural inputs and the practice of irrigation. Finally, decision-makers must increase access to credit for women.
Effects of Financial Inclusion on Tax Revenue Mobilization : Evidence from WAEMU Countries
(AERC, 2025) Chebochok, Milly Chepkorir; Bayale, Nimonka
Financial inclusion remains at the heart of government concerns. By creating favorable conditions for access to a diversified range of adapted financial products and services at affordable costs for the population, financial inclusion generates important opportunities that could lead to increased tax revenue mobilization. This paper analyzes the effects of financial inclusion on tax revenue mobilization, using panel data from West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2006-2019. The findings suggest that financial inclusion positively and significantly influences the government's tax revenue. For example, an increase in one point of the financial inclusion index corresponds to an increase in total tax revenues by 0.63 points. Moreover, by looking at the effects of disaggregated financial inclusion dimensions (access, use, and affordability) on various components of tax revenue, we find that the estimated coefficients on the sub-components of financial inclusion are statistically significant. Results also indicate the magnitude of the effect of financial inclusion is higher on indirect taxes compared to direct tax revenues. This research recommends that policymakers should prioritize financial inclusion in their policies and development agenda through National Financial Inclusion Strategies (NFIS) because it can increase countries’ resource mobilization and help them build fiscal resilience.

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