AERC Working Paper Series
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Recent Submissions
Now showing 1 - 5 of 61
- PublicationThe Effect of Non-Farm Activities on Rural Household Consumption in Sudan: Evidence from Endogenous Switching Regression Model(AERC, 2026) Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali; Ebaidalla Mahajoub EbaidallaDespite the growing prevalence of non-farm activities (NFA) in rural Sudan, their implications for household consumption and welfare remain underexplored. This study investigates the determinants of rural household participation in NFAs and assesses their impact on household consumption levels in Sudan. The research utilizes data from the 2015 Sudan National Baseline Household Survey (NBHS) and applies an endogenous switching regression model (ESRM) to address potential selection bias and endogeneity. This methodology jointly estimates the decision to participate in NFAs and the corresponding consumption outcomes for participant and non-participant households. The results show that household head gender, education, age, media access, credit access, rain-fed irrigation, farm income, distance to urban centers, and regional location significantly impact both NFA participation and household consumption. Treatment effect estimates indicate that NFA engagement significantly increases total and food consumption, with results consistent across wage employment and self-employment types. This study makes key contributions to the literature by being the first to empirically assess the impact of NFAs on household consumption in Sudan. Additionally, it provides novel insights into the heterogeneous welfare outcomes of wage-based versus self-employment NFAs in rural areas.
- PublicationSocial Networks and Technology Adoption: Evidence from Mobile Money in Uganda(AERC, 2026) Alfred Kechia Mukong; Lwanga Elizabeth NanziriInnovative financial technologies are becoming a pathway to inclusive economic participation for individuals and firms. This paper presents evidence on how individuals’ decisions to adopt such technology, particularly mobile money, relate to the adoption choices of their network of family and friends. Using the Uganda Financial Inclusion Insights (FII) Tracker Survey for 2013, we find that mobile money adoption decisions are closely linked to the network of an individual’s family and friends. Networks are defined in two ways: by the source of information on mobile money services and by the average number of adoptions in one’s neighbourhood. Like many other studies, we find a positive correlation between mobile money adoption and the adoption decisions of one’s network. The correlation persists across the different measures of networks and even when we control for unobservable (neighbourhood fixed effects) characteristics. However, the magnitude of the point estimates decreases as the model becomes saturated. Despite having more mobile money users than adopters in our sample, we do not find evidence that networks can stifle technology adoption due to the possibility of piggybacking on early adopters within the network.
- PublicationBanking Market Structure and Heterogeneous Response of Bank Lending to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Uganda(AERC, 2026) Dorothy NampewoThis paper investigates the heterogeneous response of bank lending following a monetary policy change. The study was conducted in the context of developing countries and is based on dynamic panel error correction methods using quarterly Ugandan bank-level data for the period 2011 - 2019. Results support the presence of heterogeneity in bank lending response to monetary policy changes by bank size and ownership type. Specifically, monetary policy pass-through is weaker in large foreign banks and stronger in smaller Pan-African banks. Moreover, bank lending response to monetary policy is asymmetric, with insignificant effects when the policy rate is falling. Risk, government borrowing, capital, and liquidity at the bank level, competition at the industry level, and inflation at the macro level are some of the factors that explain the response of bank lending to monetary policy.
- PublicationINCLUSION FINANCIERE INNOVATION FINANCIERE ET PERFORMANCE DES ENTREPRISES(AERC, 2026) Ahodode Bernadin Géraud Comlan; Eloundou Okala E. Bertrand; Bayiha N. T. YolandeCette étude analyse les effets de l'utilisation des services financiers (inclusion financière et innovation financière) sur la performance des entreprises au Cameroun. Les méthodes d'estimation des moindres carrés ordinaires et du modèle logit ont été utilisées pour les analyses empiriques. Les données utilisées proviennent de la base de données de l'enquête sur les entreprises 2016 de la Banque mondiale, qui couvre 361 entreprises. Les résultats révèlent, d'une part, les effets positifs de tous les services financiers sur la productivité du travail des entreprises et sur leur propension à exporter, à l'exception de l'utilisation exclusive de la microfinance et de l'argent mobile. D'autre part, nous notons la contribution des services bancaires à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires de l'industrie manufacturière, et en particulier des services bancaires, de microfinance et de monnaie mobile à l'amélioration du chiffre d'affaires du commerce et des services. Pour y parvenir, il est nécessaire de libéraliser le secteur financier au profit des opérateurs de réseau afin qu'ils puissent également opérer à l'international, et en ce qui concerne les institutions de microfinance, d'améliorer les performances des entreprises au Cameroun, comme l'ont fait leurs homologues au Ghana et au Kenya.
- PublicationBanks' Exposure to Sovereign Debt and Loans to The Private Sector in WAEMU(AERC, 2026) Djeneba DRAMÉThis paper examines the relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign debt and their lending to the private sector. To do so, we use hand-collected bank-level data from all West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries over the period 2003-2022. The results show a negative relationship between banks’ exposure to sovereign securities and their loans to the private sector. Our findings are robust to alternative estimation techniques and proxies for loans to the private sector and domestic public debt identification. The heterogeneity analysis uncovers that the effect is more pronounced in middle-income countries (LMICs) than in low-income countries (LICs). Additionally, we document that foreign banks, particularly Pan-African banks, reduce their loans more than domestic banks. However, larger and well-capitalized banks tend to mitigate the effect.