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- PublicationEvolution of the Interbank Market Network Structure: The Case of Kenya(AERC, 2026) Tiriongo Samuel; Kamau Anne; Ndirangu LydiaThis study characterizes the evolution of the interbank market network structure in Kenya, as a case study of a developing money market using a network-based approach, employing overnight trading data spanning 2013 to 2020. The study extracts and describes the evolution of well-known complex network measures, including degree distribution, network density, and centrality of the players, their clustering behaviour, and clique formations, to characterize the topology of the interbank market. Study findings show that the interconnectedness among banks in the market varied over the analysis period, with large banks being the most connected as debtors and small banks exhibiting the least funding diversification. On the lending side, small banks are just as diversified as their larger counterparts, particularly before 2016. Thereafter, as counterparty risk assessments tightened, large banks dominated the market. Other microstructure market characteristics reveal several insights about the interbank market, including: an incomplete structure, with only about 1.5 percent of banks having connections with almost all other banks; a highly vulnerable structure to a few hub banks; and a varying assortativeness structure depending on the nature of the shock presented. These findings carry useful insights for understanding interbank market counterparty risk profiling and the identification of critical players in the market, which have implications for the banking sector liquidity management strategies and financial stability. Understanding the fragility of the market and the existing anchors to market stability also facilitates the monetary authority to minimize the risk of contagion and enhance the resilience of the system in the event of a shock. Overall, the interbank market is largely fragile, and thus may not be sufficiently developed to be relied on for pricing of liquidity and effective transmission of monetary policy signals.
- PublicationDoes Emigration Contribute to Industrial Development in Africa? New Empirical Insights and Policy Directions(AERC, 2026) Moukpè Gniniguè; Essossinam AliThe developmental implications of emigration for Africa’s industrialization remain contested. While remittances and diaspora networks may foster upgrading, they can also fuel labor distortions and brain drain. Persistent challenges—limited manufacturing capacity, high-skilled outflows, and divergent experiences—underscore the need to reassess the migration–industrialization nexus. This study examines how emigrant skill composition shapes industrial outcomes, offering evidence to inform policies that align migration with Africa’s transformation agenda. Using a dynamic panel of 35 African countries (1980–2019), emigration is disaggregated by educational attainment to capture heterogeneous effects. An instrumental variables technique addresses endogeneity, allowing robust causal inference on how different skill levels influence industrial growth trajectories. Results show that emigration, across all education levels, positively affects industrial development. High-skilled emigration contributes to the accumulation of medium- and high-skilled human capital and raises gross secondary school enrollment, though it has a limited impact on low-skilled human capital. Secondary enrollment emerges as a key channel through which emigration fosters industrialization. The findings underscore the role of human capital investment in leveraging the developmental effects of migration. Policy recommendations urge African governments to align with UNCTAD and SDG 9 by promoting education and adopting migration strategies that convert brain drain into brain gain, thereby fostering economic resilience and sustainable industrialization.
- PublicationClimate Change Adaptation Strategies and Food Security of Agricultural Households in Semi-Arid Areas in Cameroon(AERC, 2026) Foudjo Suzie ImeldaLike other vulnerable regions of the Sahel, the semi-arid zone of Cameroon plays a crucial role in the local ecosystem but remains highly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change, with significant implications for household food security. Adopting appropriate adaptation strategies, therefore, appears essential to mitigating these negative impacts. This study aims to assess the effect of climate change adaptation strategies on the food security of agricultural households in semi-arid areas of Cameroon. Based on cross-sectional data from 1,000 agricultural households, a multinomial endogenous switching regression model was applied, considering the different possible combinations of coping strategies. The findings reveal that households combining adaptation strategies such as improved seeds and compost, crop diversification, and compost, or the simultaneous adoption of improved seeds, compost, and crop diversification experience significant improvements in both food consumption and dietary diversity. These results suggest that public authorities, through agricultural extension services, should not only facilitate access to improved seeds for the most vulnerable households but also strengthen training and awareness programs on the use of compost and improved seeds. Encouraging households to adopt complementary strategies, rather than relying on a single practice, could substantially enhance food security in semi-arid zones.
- PublicationMis-invoicing in Benin's International Trade: An Analysis from Mirror Statistics(AERC, 2026) Eudoxie Bessan; Christian AyédounThe aim of this work is twofold: to measure the level of mis-invoicing in Benin's trade with its main trading partners and to determine its causes. First, based on mirror statistics, we estimate the gross trade discrepancies at about $3.065 billion on average over the period 2000-2017. This represents more than 350% increase in 18 years. Fraud is dominated by under-invoicing of both imports and exports. The countries most prone to fraud are mainly Asian countries (China, India, and Malaysia), while the most misreported products are mainly those with low proportions of trade (fabrics, textiles and second-hand goods, palm oil, vehicles and motorcycles, cashew nuts, wood and wooden goods). Second, the econometric results obtained from the Pannel Corrected Standards Errors (PCSE) methods showed that the determinants of mis-invoicing are customs tariffs, the Benin/Nigeria tariff differential, the share of trade in a product, and indicator variables such as the introduction of the PVI, the perishability of a product, the region of origin, and the tariff and non-tariff measures enacted in recent years. Considering our results, Benin needs to review its trade policy and work toward more effective management of its international trade flows. At the same time, international organizations such as the WTO and the WCO must cooperate and coordinate the management of international trade to control fraud.
- PublicationImpact de l'adoption de Semence Améliorées sur la Productivité du Maïs au Bénin(AERC, 2026) Christelle Yèba AKPOLe maïs occupe une place prépondérante dans le secteur agricole du Bénin, car il est largement consommé et représente une source potentielle de devises pour le pays. L'objectif est donc d'analyser les effets de l'adoption de variétés de semences améliorées sur la productivité au Bénin. Plus précisément, il vise à (1) identifier les facteurs qui influencent les décisions des agriculteurs d'adopter des variétés de maïs améliorées, et (2) estimer l'impact de l'adoption de semences améliorées sur les rendements de maïs. Les données utilisées sont des données secondaires issues de la base de données du Programme d'analyse des politiques agricoles de l'Institut national de recherche agricole du Bénin (PAPA/INRAB) et portent sur un échantillon aléatoire de 356 producteurs de maïs. En utilisant le modèle de régression par changement de régime pour contrôler les biais de sélection potentiels et les problèmes d'hétérogénéité non observée, il est démontré que l'accès au crédit, la quantité d'engrais utilisée, le soutien technique et l'adhésion à une organisation d'agriculteurs font partie des facteurs qui déterminent l'adoption de variétés de maïs améliorées par les agriculteurs. En outre, les résultats montrent clairement que l'adoption de variétés de semences de maïs améliorées est associée à une meilleure productivité chez les adoptants, ce qui suggère que les efforts visant à diffuser ces variétés auprès des non-adoptants devraient être poursuivis afin de maximiser les avantages inhérents à cette innovation.