AERC Working Paper Series
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Recent Submissions
- PublicationAccess to Credit and Agricultural Productivity(AERC, 2026) Achille Barnabé ASSOUTO; Dewanou Jean-Luc HOUNGBEMEAccess to agricultural credit remains a critical challenge in developing countries, limiting the adoption of modern technologies essential for productivity growth. This study investigates the impact of credit access on agricultural productivity among maize producers in Benin, utilizing data from a 2016 survey conducted by the National Agricultural Research Institute of Benin. Employing an endogenous switching regression model, the analysis accounts for selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that access to credit increases productivity by 40.07% per hectare and 31.97% per FCFA invested. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive policies to enhance agricultural financing and productivity.
- PublicationIdentifying Institutional Structures for Data Policy and Governance Frameworks: Case for The Education Sector in Kenya(AERC, 2026) Eldah Onsomu; Gideon Nyakundi; Japheth KathengeThe population aged 35 years and below constitutes 75% of the population in Kenya, with 36.1% of the population aged between 15 and 35 years, presenting a significant development opportunity. If properly educated and skilled, this demographic could drive innovation, productivity, and sustainable development. However, education systems across the sub-Saharan region, Kenya included, often suffer from inefficiencies that stem from weak data coordination and management. This study aims to critically assess the state of data governance in Kenya’s education sector and the effects on education outcomes. Five foundational pillars of data governance—Roles and Responsibilities, Privacy Standards, Policies, Tools and Practices, and Processes and Procedures—were assessed using six key operational dimensions. The overall Data Governance Index (DGI) shows a clear and positive relationship with the Human Development Index (HDI) across Kenya’s counties, confirming that counties with stronger data governance frameworks tend to achieve higher levels of education outcomes and development. Counties with well-structured data systems—characterized by high data quality, accessibility, timeliness, security, metadata documentation, and stewardship—demonstrate stronger planning capabilities, more efficient service delivery, and better outcomes in the education sector. However, main constraints affecting data governance in the education sector include: Undefined roles and responsibilities in counties; Lack of dedicated data teams and committees; Inconsistent funding for data leadership and capacity building; Incomplete or outdated metadata in counties; Lack of standard documentation guidelines and tools and Limited staff awareness and technical capacity. Interventions towards improving data governance in the education sector include: implementing mandatory data quality checks and validation protocols; automating collection processes to reduce manual errors; and providing training on data accuracy and integrity. Enforce encryption, access controls, and multi-factor authentication; Provide regular staff training on cybersecurity; Monitor and report compliance with data protection laws. Develop open-access platforms for education data; Standardize accessibility policies across counties; Create user feedback channels for improvement; Enforce routine data submission timelines; Invest in mobile data collection tools and dashboards; Schedule periodic data audits; Institutionalize stewardship roles and guidelines; Form cross-sectoral education data committees; Allocate dedicated budget lines for data leadership activities; Adopt national metadata standards; Train staff on metadata use and documentation; Establish centralized metadata repositories per county.
- PublicationSMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE COMMERCIALIZATION DYNAMICS UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE: EVIDENCE FROM RURAL ETHIOPIA(AERC, 2026) Takesure Tozooneyi; Clifton MakateSmallholder crop commercialization, which implies the engagement of farmers with output markets, has been for long a popular development policy for alleviating rural poverty in many countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. The success of smallholder crop commercialization initiatives lies in developing robust value chains that link farmers to inputs and outputs markets, by so doing improving their welfare from the consequent market-based exchanges. However, the development of these value chains must overcome systemic investment risks. One such risk is climate risk, particularly rainfall, temperature variability, and shocks (e.g., drought and heat stress). Commercialization dynamics under changing climate remain largely under-explored in extant literature. This study explores how smallholder commercialization decisions and outcomes are evolving under elevated climate risk exposure and other socioeconomic challenges affecting smallholders in Ethiopia. Precisely, we evaluate the dynamics of the influence of long-term climate variability and recurrent climate shocks in driving crop output market participation in Ethiopia. The study uses longitudinal household panel data for Ethiopia spanning seven years (2012-2019), complemented with historical climate data for over 30 years (1980-2018). We rely on measures of the degree of participation in output markets as indicators of agricultural commercialization. We apply appropriate latent variables models in a Correlated Random Effects framework, which helps us address the potential endogeneity problem associated with output market participation decisions emanating from unobservable household heterogeneity. Results reveal recurrent climate variability and specific shocks (drought, flood, and heat stress) to strongly influence crop output commercialization. Also, investments in commercial input purchases offer resilience to farmers and help sustain output market participation under climate variability and stress. Efforts to upgrade smallholder agricultural value chains should be in tandem with steps toward protecting production from climate risks.
- PublicationCOVID-19 Shock, Social Protection, and Food Insecurity in Nigeria(AERC, 2026) Pouirkèta Rita NIKIEMA,; Khadijat Busola AMOLEGBE,; Gbêtondji Melaine Armel NONVIDEWe seek to understand the effect of COVID-19 and assess the effects of social protection in mitigating the effects of the COVID-19 shock on household food insecurity status. We employed the World Bank Living Standard Measurement Survey for Nigeria, focusing on the dataset collected before the COVID-19 shock and during the post-COVID-19 phone survey. We employed a difference-in-differences method and used all the individual measures of food insecurity. We also explored the heterogeneous effects of social protection across the gender of the recipient, household location, and wealth status. Our results show that food insecurity is greater in all households after the pandemic shock. We found that social protection is effective at mitigating the effects of the pandemic and that the effect is greater for cash assistance. The mitigating effect is greater among female-headed households, poor households, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming. The findings of this study highlight the necessity of having a well-organized social protection programme. In particular, policies aimed at promoting cash assistance among female-headed households, poor individuals, those in rural areas, and those involved in farming can have important implications for improving the food security of households in Nigeria.
- PublicationEconomic Well-Being of Refugees and Nationals in Kenya: A Comparative Panel Data Analysis(AERC, 2026) SULEIMAN HASSAN MAALIMThis study addresses the economic well-being of refugees and host communities in Kenya, highlighting a significant gap in existing empirical findings due to the fragmented approach of previous research. By conducting a comprehensive comparative analysis, the study examines the welfare determinants of refugees living in various setups; urban and camp environments alongside Kenyan households. Utilizing longitudinal panel data, the research aims to provide dynamic insights into the factors influencing economic stability and resilience among these populations. The analysis reveals critical discrepancies in service provision and experiences of discrimination faced by refugees, exacerbated by language barriers and legal challenges in accessing essential services. Key findings indicate that income and economic participation are significant predictors of well-being, with urban refugees demonstrating higher sensitivity to income changes compared to their camp counterparts. Additionally, larger household sizes negatively impact welfare, while education levels and gender dynamics play crucial roles in determining household well-being. The study emphasizes the importance of tailored interventions that enhance economic empowerment, particularly for women-headed households, and improve access to education and health services. Furthermore, fostering partnerships between NGOs and local governments is essential for creating a supportive environment that addresses the unique needs of refugees. Overall, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complexities surrounding refugee welfare in Kenya and offers policy recommendations aimed at promoting equity and facilitating the integration of refugees into host communities.