GSYE Working Papers

Permanent URI for this collection

https://publication.aercafricalibrary.org/handle/123456789/3421

Browse

Now showing 1 - 14 of 14

The Challenge of Unemployment and Youth Unemployment amidst Fast Economic Growth in Ethiopia
(2022) Geda, Alemayehu
Using a varies of approaches, this study examined the challenge of general and youth unemployment during the fast growth period of Ethiopia, 2000-2021. Apart from describing the recent profile of the labour market, I found a mismatch between the sectors that are the sources of fast growth and the sectors with significant potential for job creation. A simulation exercises carried to examine the employment effect of demand stimulus is not found to change this pattern although it could lead to an increase in output. The unemployment problem is accentuated by lack of structural transformation and low or declining productivity across sectors. The probability of being unemployed is also found to be relatively higher for females and youth, compared to males and adults, respectively. Government effort to address the youth unemployment problem through the establishment of technical and vocational training schools is not helping either. Based on the findings a number of policy implications are deriver. Among this, for instance, redirecting incentives and policy support to sectors with significant employment potential – the top three identified in the study being agriculture in general and animal husbandry in particular, agro industrial parks and labour-intensive manufacturing - could be important to address the challenge of unemployment.
Employment Creation Potential for Youth in the Kenyan Economy
(2022-08) Onsomu, Eldah; Munga, Boaz; Nyabaro, Violet; Munene, Bonface
Job creation is a key development objective for most economies, Kenya included. However, expansion of employment opportunities has not kept pace with the rapidly expanding working age population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the sectors with high potential of creating employment opportunities for the youths in Kenya. The study utilized Input-Output approach using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2015 to determine sectors with highest job creation potential. The findings indicate that agriculture, transport, trade, construction, and education have the highest potential to create jobs for the youth. The employment multipliers were as follows: agriculture (2.1); transport (1.74); trade (1.89); construction (1.84); and education (1.85). Activities with high potential to create jobs include livestock, vegetables (horticulture), rice production, textile and footwear production, and hotels and restaurants. Further, the results imply that the sectors of the Kenyan economy are interdependent and diverse, spanning agriculture, services, and manufacturing. Expansion of one sector has backward and forward linkages with the other sectors. It would, therefore, be important to adopt a comprehensive multisectoral approach in job creation strategy for the country. There is great opportunity to create jobs by supporting further developments in agriculture and services sectors and putting in place robust strategies to enhance investments in manufacturing.
Growth Sectors, Youth and Employment: Challenges and Way Forward: A Synthesis Paper of Ethiopia, Mali and Nigeria Country Case Studies
(2022-08) Omolo, Jacob
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries were posting relatively good economic growth rates pre-COVID-19. The region registered an average growth rate of 4.1% in 2010‒2019 before registering a declined growth of 1.9% in 2020. Ethiopia maintained a strong growth rate of at least 7.7% in 2010‒2019, averaging 9.6% over the period. Equally, Mozambique and Mali's average growth rates of 5.5% and 4.4% in 2010‒2019 were above the SSA's average. Though Nigeria's real economic growth rate remained highly volatile, it managed an average of 3.8% in 2010‒2019, which was marginally below the region's average. Despite the realized growth rates, SSA and her member countries continue to witness increased levels of unemployment, particularly for women and youth. Unemployment rate amongst the youth (15-35 years) in Mali was estimated at 20.2% in 2019, with young females bearing a higher burden (6.1%) compared to young males (4.9%). The youth (15-29 years) in Ethiopia bore unemployment rate of 14% in 2021, six percentage points above the national average. The unemployment rate of the female youth (29%) was almost double that of the male youth (16%). Youth (15-34 years) unemployment rate in Nigeria was estimated at 30% in 2018. Again, the female youth suffered higher rates of unemployment compared to male youth. Besides open unemployment, the youth also experience underemployment and vulnerable employment with regional, sectoral, gender, and age-based disparities. Enhancing decent employment for young men and women is a key policy priority of all governments in SSA, including Ethiopia, Mali and Nigeria. While many policies, legal, institutional and programmatic interventions that seek to promote creation of employment opportunities for young men and women exist, youth employment challenge persists. Furthermore, while the countries premise employment creation on economic growth, the growth episodes in these countries have not been accompanied by commensurate growth in employment. A number of studies have been conducted on the trends and drivers of youth unemployment. However, there is limited robust evidence on the economic sectors that have the greatest potential to create jobs for the youth. Following the identified research gap, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) in partnership with the Economic Research Forum (ERF) and Overseas Development Institute (ODI) commissioned collaborative studies in a number of countries. The researches focused on “Income and work for young men and women 2 Working Paper GSYE-004 in Africa: A political Economy and Social Equity Approach to the Employment Potential of Specific Sectors and Subsectors in African Economies”. This Synthesis Paper draws from country-specific researches conducted in Ethiopia, Mali, and Nigeria1 . Though a similar study was also conducted in Mozambique, the country's study report was not available for review. The broad objective of the country case studies was to identify the growth sectors, provide evidence on country-specific actors and conditions needed to support these sectors, and identify ways to promote equal access to the opportunities by all youth regardless of their gender, socioeconomic background, or geographical location.
Identifying Activities for Greater Employment Generation in Egypt: An Input-Output Analysis
(2022-08) Iman, Al-Ayouty
Between 2006 and 2017, Egypt's average rate of unemployment was 11.2%, and 23.8% among the youth. Promoting employment-generating industries may mitigate unemployment. The present study, therefore, identifies industries (agricultural, extraction and mining, manufacturing, and services activities) with an employment generating potential, with special reference to the youth. The study uses input output analysis to compute employment and output multipliers for Egypt in the year 2016‒2017. A spatial analysis is also employed to test for spatial autocorrelation (dependence) in total employment and youth employment. Results show that the highest manufacturing employment multipliers, ranging from 4.30 to 1.90, are: Food products; Basic metals; Motor vehicles; Paper products; Non-metallic mineral products; Beverages; Wearing apparel; Coke and refined petroleum products. Among primary industries, agriculture, extraction of crude petroleum, and mining employment multipliers are 1.45, 1.43, and 1.37, respectively. The employment multipliers of the leading service industries range from 2.66 to 1.44: Real estate; Hotels and restaurants; Administrative & support services; Communication; and Construction. Total and youth employment are found to have positive spatial dependence, with evident clustering of total and youth employment among governorates of the regions of Greater Cairo, the Delta, and Upper Egypt. Many of the high ranking employment multiplier industries and the feeding industries along their value chains are also located in these regions, and in geographically close regions. With the established spatial dependence, a key policy implication is to direct investment to where these industries are located, and possibly to locations of the feeding industries along their value chain. Potentially, there would be stronger inter-firm linkage across regions, and further generation of total and youth employment.
Income and Work for Young Men and Women in Africa: A Political Economy and Social Equity Approach to the Employment Potential of Specific Sectors and Sub-Sectors in African Economies
(2022-08) John, Mutenyo
The issue of youth employment remains a major concern in Africa, particularly in Kenya, Senegal, and Uganda despite the fact these countries have implemented several initiatives to reduce youth unemployment. Evidence from the three countries suggest that the employment programmes have had limited impact on youth employment. This collaborative study was therefore set up to: i) Identify promising economic sectors or value chains for job creation for young men and women in selected countries in Africa; ii) Determine the country-specific conditions needed for local and foreign private sector to invest in these sectors or value chains; iii) Identify the country-specific actors that are needed to create these conditions that enhance or reduce investment security; and iv) to explore ways to promote equal access and opportunity for youth to these new sources of work and income, addressing inequality related to gender, socioeconomic background, and place of residence. To achieve the above goals, a set of interlinked activities were undertaken, including use of qualitative and quantitative analysis, the multiplier models using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and National Household Surveys (NHS) of the respective countries, and regression analysis.
The Potential for Women and Youth Employment in Mali’s Economic Sectors
(2022-08) Traoré, Ousmane Z.; Sountoura, Lansine; Dembélé, Aoua Saran
The study’s main aim is to examine the sectors and the branches of activities within Mali’s economy that have the highest job creation potential for women and the youth. To achieve this objective, the study is carried out following a methodology based on two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The quantitative approach was based on a descriptive analysis of the main tendencies and on dispersion, while also being based on graphical analysis. Secondly, econometric estimations of a Cobb-Douglas production function were carried out in each branch of economic activity to determine their production potential and their related employment potential. Thereafter, a descriptive analysis of the employment potential allowed for the identification of the sectors of economic activity that have the highest employment creation potential for women and the youth. The qualitative analysis method of barriers to employment and work opportunities for women and youth in Mali as used is based on a framework proposed by Chakravarty et al. (2017). The method of content analysis is applied to data drawn on the literature from qualitative surveys undertaken on key informants. The quantitative data used is essentially derived from the EMOP database (2013- 2020), National Accounts (2012-2020), data from the World Bank (World Development Indicators) and the International Labour Organization database (ILOSTAT) (1990-2016). It covers three (3) economic sectors and 21 branches of activity. These quantitative data are complemented by data derived from the literature on qualitative surveys that were undertaken on key informants.
Potential Sectors for Greater Employment Generation in the MENA Region: The Case of Tunisia and Egypt
(2022-08) Zaki, Chahir
Egypt and Tunisia share several similar characteristics, given that they are highly dependent on services, have a relatively diversified manufacturing sector, and did relatively well at the macroeconomic level. Yet, while their economies grew thanks to stabilization policies, employment outcomes did not cope with such growth, referring to the so-called jobless growth. Thus, the objective of this paper is twofold: first, it presents the structural problems of Egypt and Tunisia related to growth and employment and explains why growth has been jobless; second, analyse which sectors can generate more jobs. The main findings show that the manufacturing sector has a great potential to generate more jobs. Yet, deep reforms to make the industrial sector more competitive are needed. This includes improving the skills of blue collars, enhancing the quality of institutions (especially economic ones), and increasing foreign direct investments in the manufacturing sector.
Sectoral Development: Assessing the Conditions that Drive Youth Employment in Key Sectors of the Nigerian Economy
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Edewor, Sarah Edore; Kollie, Genesis Bhenda
Youth unemployment is a condition that has worsened in Nigeria over the past two decades. This situation became more glaring since 2015 due to a decline in the economy arising from the fall in oil prices. Given Nigeria as the focus, this study assessed the conditions that drive youth employment in key economic sectors of the Nigerian economy by specifically identifying the promising economic sectors with job creation potential for young men and women; analysing the differential impact of sectoral growth on youth employment across rural and urban areas as well as on gender lines; identifying the key economic and political constraints to developing key sectors relevant for youth employment; and determining the specific conditions needed for investment in the identified sectors. T
Structural Change, Productivity and Job Creation: Evidence from Tunisia
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Amara, Mohamed; Zidi, Faycel; Jeddi, Hela
This paper combines macro and micro level analysis to identify the main sectors and firms that present the greatest potential to boost productive employment in Tunisia. The macro level analysis uses aggregate data at the sectoral level to understand the main characteristics of structural changes, employment, and productivity growth. The micro or firm-level analysis goes into more details of the process of reallocation by using microdata from the Tunisian Business Register covering the last two decades. The empirical results show that a 1% increase in industry output generates twice as much employment as the services sector for the population in the working age groups 15–64-year-old; while a 1% increase in services output generates twice as much employment as industry sector for youth between 15 and 25 years. In addition, growth in value-added per capita between 2011 and 2018 was “jobless growth”. It was driven by increased productivity and participation rate, rather than an increase in the employment rate. Tunisian manufacturing sector is hampered by a waste and a misallocation of resources between firms as capital inputs are directed from their productive uses with too many resources going to less productive firms. Within-firm and between-firm components negatively impact labour productivity growth and slow down efforts aimed at reducing unemployment. This is providing clear evidence of low firm performance as job creators, while entry and exit contributed only negligibly to changes in labour productivity between 2000 and 2020.
Support Programmes for Youth Employment and Employability in the Job Sectors in Senegal
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Dumas, Tsambou André; Diallo, Thierno Malick; Benjamin, Fomba Kamga
The issue of youth employment remains a major concern in Senegal. In recent years, the country has implemented several programmes aimed at combating unemployment and the precariousness of youth employment on the labour market. However, the results of those programmes are yet to be noticed. The aim of the present study is to assess the impact of employment support programmes on the integration of young men and young women into sectors of activity with a high capacity for quality job creation. The study has four specific objectives. The first objective is to identify the sectors of activity in which young people are employed most, based on data from national surveys on living conditions and employment in Senegal. The second is to analyse the quality of jobs held by the youth in the sectors where they are most employed, taking into consideration the level of visible and invisible underemployment and the degree of job security and stability. The third is to construct a composite index of job quality and to determine the sectors of activity most likely to provide quality jobs, by correcting for potential selection bias. The fourth is to use the propensity score matching method to assess the impact of employment support programmes on the youth's access to sectors of activity that offer quality jobs, based on survey data on the improvement of employment policies conducted in 2018 among 2,746 individuals in Senegal.
Supporting Jobs for Young Women and Men in Africa: A Framework for Country Level Analysis
(2022-08) Velde, Dirk Willem te
A third of Africa's population consists of young people, and a quarter of jobs in Africa go to young people, twice as much as the world average. Finding jobs for the young is very much linked to a general employment challenge. Africa will see some 18 million additional young people entering the working age population each year by 2030, with around two-thirds or 13 million entering the labour market. This compares to nine million additional jobs each year that were created between 2003 and 2016, meaning a step up of 50% in the job creation rate is required to address demographic challenges. The jobs crisis is not a straightforward supply-side or education and skills challenge, as in most African countries, the share of youth unemployment goes up with level of education and the returns to tertiary education has decreased in several African countries. This suggests that a higher level of education is not a guarantee for employment, and we need to consider which complementary actions can develop sectors which can pull in employment opportunities, for young men and women.
Using Output and Labour Multipliers to Target Incentives for Fast Economic Recovery: The Cases of Ethiopia and Kenya
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022) Max, Mendez-Parra
This paper provides an initial approach on the use of input-output tables to calculate output and labour multipliers. It uses the Ethiopia and Kenya country case studies to illustrate the procedure.The output and labour multipliers are helpful to understand the backward linkages and the economy-wide employment generation of specific sectors. The multipliers indicate the capability of a demand-induced shock to generate output and employment directly and indirectly. In this way, it is possible to determine the sectors that, through stimulus of different nature, can deliver the maximum effect on economic recovery.
Work and Income for Young Men and Women in Africa: The Case of Uganda
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Mutenyo, John; Buyinza, Faisal; Ssenono, Vincent F.; Asiimwe, Wilson
This study sets out to undertake an in-depth country study to establish the economic sectors with the highest multipliers and potential to create employment opportunities for the youth in Uganda. The study used Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS 2019/20) and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM 2016/17) for Uganda. The study employs descriptive analysis and multiplier approach together with regression analysis by estimating a two-stage Heckman probit model. First, the study examines the employment potential and linkages across the different sectors with decent jobs for the youth using the multiplier analysis. Secondly, the study analyses youth employment using full time equivalent in sectors taking into account gender issues by estimating probit and Tobit-Heckman two-stage regression models. This study finds that more female youth are employed in non-farm self-employment activities, while male youth are mainly employed in non-farm wage activities. In addition, the study finds that farm agricultural work employs most of the youth than other sectors. Furthermore, the results show that off-farm self-work is a significant source of youth employment in all regions. The regression findings show that youth employment is strongly related to their education attainment, skill attainment, and residence of the youth. This highlights the need for policy makers to be cognizant of the rural-urban gradient, skilling and reskilling of the youth in sector-specific skills for potential decent job creation. Also, there is need for the promotion of value addition and supporting agro-processing and import substitution, specifically firms that use local inputs, so as to create employment opportunities for the youth.
Work and Income for Young Men and Women in Africa: Employment Potential of Specific Sectors and Sub-Sectors in African Economies: A synthesis
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Hoeven, Rolph van der
This paper synthesizes two framework papers for the Growth Sectors for Youth Employment: An AERC‒ODI‒ERF‒INCLUDE Collaborative Research Project, which both point to the need for a well-designed sectoral approach in Africa's structural transformation to generate full and productive employment, especially for youth. While an industrial sector itself might not be labour-intensive, the inter-sectoral demand, or creation of value-added in that sector, can boost growth in another sector that is more labour-intensive, resulting in an increase in total employment. Inter-sectoral linkages are, therefore, important in tracking the overall employment effects of any expanding sector. An important question is whether current global trends might throw some doubts on whether in Africa an exclusive reliance on industrial sectors remains a path for structural transformation that was followed mainly by earlier developing countries. Global trends presenting new opportunities for Africa are singled out and three sets of industries relevant for structural transformation and employment creation in Africa are discussed. Given the right incentives, both FDI and domestic investment can create modern firms creating youth employment, but that, because of still high labour force growth in Africa, ‘informal will be normal’ for some time a youth employment agenda needs also to tackle productivity issues in this sector, both on and off the farm and in urban areas.

Browse

Browsing GSYE Working Papers by Title

Results Per Page

Sort Options