GSYE Working Papers

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The Potential for Women and Youth Employment in Mali’s Economic Sectors
(2022-08) Traoré, Ousmane Z.; Sountoura, Lansine; Dembélé, Aoua Saran
The study’s main aim is to examine the sectors and the branches of activities within Mali’s economy that have the highest job creation potential for women and the youth. To achieve this objective, the study is carried out following a methodology based on two approaches: qualitative and quantitative. The quantitative approach was based on a descriptive analysis of the main tendencies and on dispersion, while also being based on graphical analysis. Secondly, econometric estimations of a Cobb-Douglas production function were carried out in each branch of economic activity to determine their production potential and their related employment potential. Thereafter, a descriptive analysis of the employment potential allowed for the identification of the sectors of economic activity that have the highest employment creation potential for women and the youth. The qualitative analysis method of barriers to employment and work opportunities for women and youth in Mali as used is based on a framework proposed by Chakravarty et al. (2017). The method of content analysis is applied to data drawn on the literature from qualitative surveys undertaken on key informants. The quantitative data used is essentially derived from the EMOP database (2013- 2020), National Accounts (2012-2020), data from the World Bank (World Development Indicators) and the International Labour Organization database (ILOSTAT) (1990-2016). It covers three (3) economic sectors and 21 branches of activity. These quantitative data are complemented by data derived from the literature on qualitative surveys that were undertaken on key informants.
Employment Creation Potential for Youth in the Kenyan Economy
(2022-08) Onsomu, Eldah; Munga, Boaz; Nyabaro, Violet; Munene, Bonface
Job creation is a key development objective for most economies, Kenya included. However, expansion of employment opportunities has not kept pace with the rapidly expanding working age population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the sectors with high potential of creating employment opportunities for the youths in Kenya. The study utilized Input-Output approach using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2015 to determine sectors with highest job creation potential. The findings indicate that agriculture, transport, trade, construction, and education have the highest potential to create jobs for the youth. The employment multipliers were as follows: agriculture (2.1); transport (1.74); trade (1.89); construction (1.84); and education (1.85). Activities with high potential to create jobs include livestock, vegetables (horticulture), rice production, textile and footwear production, and hotels and restaurants. Further, the results imply that the sectors of the Kenyan economy are interdependent and diverse, spanning agriculture, services, and manufacturing. Expansion of one sector has backward and forward linkages with the other sectors. It would, therefore, be important to adopt a comprehensive multisectoral approach in job creation strategy for the country. There is great opportunity to create jobs by supporting further developments in agriculture and services sectors and putting in place robust strategies to enhance investments in manufacturing.
Identifying Activities for Greater Employment Generation in Egypt: An Input-Output Analysis
(2022-08) Iman, Al-Ayouty
Between 2006 and 2017, Egypt's average rate of unemployment was 11.2%, and 23.8% among the youth. Promoting employment-generating industries may mitigate unemployment. The present study, therefore, identifies industries (agricultural, extraction and mining, manufacturing, and services activities) with an employment generating potential, with special reference to the youth. The study uses input output analysis to compute employment and output multipliers for Egypt in the year 2016‒2017. A spatial analysis is also employed to test for spatial autocorrelation (dependence) in total employment and youth employment. Results show that the highest manufacturing employment multipliers, ranging from 4.30 to 1.90, are: Food products; Basic metals; Motor vehicles; Paper products; Non-metallic mineral products; Beverages; Wearing apparel; Coke and refined petroleum products. Among primary industries, agriculture, extraction of crude petroleum, and mining employment multipliers are 1.45, 1.43, and 1.37, respectively. The employment multipliers of the leading service industries range from 2.66 to 1.44: Real estate; Hotels and restaurants; Administrative & support services; Communication; and Construction. Total and youth employment are found to have positive spatial dependence, with evident clustering of total and youth employment among governorates of the regions of Greater Cairo, the Delta, and Upper Egypt. Many of the high ranking employment multiplier industries and the feeding industries along their value chains are also located in these regions, and in geographically close regions. With the established spatial dependence, a key policy implication is to direct investment to where these industries are located, and possibly to locations of the feeding industries along their value chain. Potentially, there would be stronger inter-firm linkage across regions, and further generation of total and youth employment.
Work and Income for Young Men and Women in Africa: The Case of Uganda
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Mutenyo, John; Buyinza, Faisal; Ssenono, Vincent F.; Asiimwe, Wilson
This study sets out to undertake an in-depth country study to establish the economic sectors with the highest multipliers and potential to create employment opportunities for the youth in Uganda. The study used Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS 2019/20) and the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM 2016/17) for Uganda. The study employs descriptive analysis and multiplier approach together with regression analysis by estimating a two-stage Heckman probit model. First, the study examines the employment potential and linkages across the different sectors with decent jobs for the youth using the multiplier analysis. Secondly, the study analyses youth employment using full time equivalent in sectors taking into account gender issues by estimating probit and Tobit-Heckman two-stage regression models. This study finds that more female youth are employed in non-farm self-employment activities, while male youth are mainly employed in non-farm wage activities. In addition, the study finds that farm agricultural work employs most of the youth than other sectors. Furthermore, the results show that off-farm self-work is a significant source of youth employment in all regions. The regression findings show that youth employment is strongly related to their education attainment, skill attainment, and residence of the youth. This highlights the need for policy makers to be cognizant of the rural-urban gradient, skilling and reskilling of the youth in sector-specific skills for potential decent job creation. Also, there is need for the promotion of value addition and supporting agro-processing and import substitution, specifically firms that use local inputs, so as to create employment opportunities for the youth.
Structural Change, Productivity and Job Creation: Evidence from Tunisia
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-08) Amara, Mohamed; Zidi, Faycel; Jeddi, Hela
This paper combines macro and micro level analysis to identify the main sectors and firms that present the greatest potential to boost productive employment in Tunisia. The macro level analysis uses aggregate data at the sectoral level to understand the main characteristics of structural changes, employment, and productivity growth. The micro or firm-level analysis goes into more details of the process of reallocation by using microdata from the Tunisian Business Register covering the last two decades. The empirical results show that a 1% increase in industry output generates twice as much employment as the services sector for the population in the working age groups 15–64-year-old; while a 1% increase in services output generates twice as much employment as industry sector for youth between 15 and 25 years. In addition, growth in value-added per capita between 2011 and 2018 was “jobless growth”. It was driven by increased productivity and participation rate, rather than an increase in the employment rate. Tunisian manufacturing sector is hampered by a waste and a misallocation of resources between firms as capital inputs are directed from their productive uses with too many resources going to less productive firms. Within-firm and between-firm components negatively impact labour productivity growth and slow down efforts aimed at reducing unemployment. This is providing clear evidence of low firm performance as job creators, while entry and exit contributed only negligibly to changes in labour productivity between 2000 and 2020.

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