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TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN UGANDA’S DISTRICT REFERRAL HOSPITALS
(UNIVERSITY OF DAR ES SALAAM, 2006-09-01) Yawe, Bruno Lule
The study measures the technical efficiency and total factor productivity growth of 25 district referral hospitals from three regions of Uganda over the 1999-2003 period. This study is motivated by a desire to evaluate the ongoing health sector reforms in Uganda which in part are seeking to improve the efficiency of health services. Nonparametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used in the measurement of hospital technical efficiency whilst the DEA-Malmquist index is used in the measurement of hospital total factor productivity change. The Hospital Management Information System launched in 1997 is the source of the data for this study. The results indicate the existence of different degrees of technical and scale inefficiency in Uganda’s district referral hospitals over the sample period. There were productivity losses for the sample hospitals which are largely due to technological regress rather than technical inefficiency. Thus, changes in technology are needed if the hospitals are to become more productive, for instance through improved diagnosis tests, hospital information management. The findings illustrate one of the advantages of the frontier efficiency technique, namely the ability to identify the degree of emphasis that should be placed on improving technical efficiency vis-à-vis technological change. The study adds to the existing literature on health facility efficiency but additionally incorporates patient deaths in the measurement of hospital technical efficiency. Additionally, heterogeneity in the patient load is controlled for via a length of stay-based case-mix index. Quality of care was incorporated into the analysis by means of patient deaths. Super-efficiency was conducted to further distinguish between the technically efficient hospitals. To construct confidence intervals for individual hospitals technical efficiency scores, nonparametric bootstrapping was conducted. The efficiency vectors yielded have ready uses by policymakers in the hospital sector. Indicators of the relative efficiency of hospitals are needed to gauge whether hospital cost-containment efforts are succeeding, amongst other uses.
TESTING BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE THEORIES ON A FRONTIER MARKET - THE CASE OF NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE
(UNIVERSITY OF DAR ES SALAAM, 2006-12-01) Olowo, Patrick
This study investigates whether the revision of the NSE-20 share index yields abnormal returns and also if psychology (overconfidence) influences investment decisions at the NSE as is predicted by behavioural finance. On the one hand, wanting to exploit abnormal returns that are likely to result from the revision of the NSE-20 share index could be costly due to the involved costs and risks (limits-to-arbitrage argument). On the other hand, the expanding trading volume at the NSE over time could signal excessive trading that translates into loss in wealth for those engaged in it as is predicted by the overconfidence bias. We employ financial time econometrics to achieve our objectives. The study’s findings indicate that while the periodic revision of the NSE-20 share index yields abnormal returns, they are not statistically significant. Further, investment decisions depict psychological biases of overconfidence and its dynamic counterpart; biased self- attribution. Unlike in developed markets where the level of overconfidence depends on the precision of investor forecasts, in frontier markets overconfidence is high even when forecasts are highly imprecise. In addition to other factors, over-confidence-based trading contributes to excess volatility in the market. The study recommends that Kenya’s financial consumer protection programme that deals with financial regulation and financial literacy should be behavioural finance-biased since there is evidence that behavioural biases are at play in this market. It is expected that well informed and psychologically astute investors can better their capital allocation decisions.
A GLS ESTIMATION OF THE TWO-WAY RANDOM EFFECT MODEL WITH DOUBLE AUTOCORRELATION
(UNIVERSITY OF COCODY, 2008-06-02) BROU, Bosson Jean Marcelin
This thesis is a theoretical investigation of a frequently encountered econometric issue: the problem of autocorrelation. Under a two-way random effect context, we introduce serial correlation in the time-varying disturbances, leading to a double correlation framework. We analyze two major situations related to the structure of the error terms. The first one considers that the time-varying disturbances follow the same correlation pattern, with the same parameters. They are allowed to exhibit series such as the autoregressive of order 1 (hereafter AR(1)) or the moving-average of order 1 (hereafter MA(1)) processes. We also examined the case of unknown correlation. A detailed generalized least squares (hereafter GLS) procedure is deduced from the spectral decomposition of the variance-covariance matrix of the composite error term. A Feasible Generalized Least Squares (hereafter FGLS) approach is derived whatever the correlation status may be. The second error structure assumes that the time-varying disturbances can follow different correlation patterns. A general case of unknown serial correlation is considered, as well as the autoregressive and moving-average processes of order 1 models. We show that the variance-covariance matrix of the overall error term can always be written in a precise form, independently from the type of serial correlation. Once again, we deduce a GLS estimator from the inverse of this moment matrix. Underlying estimators are shown out and their asymptotic properties are studied. We find that the GLS estimator is asymptotically equivalent to a “within” estimator called the covariance estimator. Finally, a FGLS version is proposed.
EXCHANGE RATE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENT IN SIERRA LEONE, 1970-2005
(University of Ibadan, 2008-08-22) KORSU, ROBERT DAUDA,
In spite of series of exchange rate adjustments in the 1980s and the adoption of the managed floating exchange rate regime in 1990, Sierra Leone still experiences poor external sector performance. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating since the 1980s without reflection on the real exchange rate and the balance of payments. Both the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of the nominal exchange rate on the real exchange rate and, hence, the balance of payments, are inconclusive. Previous studies on Sierra Leone focused on the elasticity approach, ignoring the wide macroeconomic implications of changes in the exchange rate. This study therefore examined the role of the exchange rate in balance of payments adjustment in Sierra Leone. Based on the absorption approach to the balance of payments, a small open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporated the linkages among fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies, and the balance of payments was constructed using annual data from 1970 to 2005. The empirical analysis was based on estimating the macroeconomic model using the three stage least squares, and counterfactual policy simulations. Using Ordinary Least Squares with moving average errors, an equilibrium real exchange rate model which was derived from the basic tradable and non-tradable goods framework was also estimated. Although increase in the nominal exchange rate was inflationary, it increased the real exchange rate, non-mineral export, aggregate export, output, absorption and import. Moreover, it decreased the trade balance and increased the overall balance of payments. The correlation coefficients between actual and simulated series ranged from 0.5 to 0.94, while the covariance proportions of the Theil’s inequality coefficients ranged from 0.47 to 0.98. An 85 % increase in the nominal exchange rate increased the price level by 3.9 %, real exchange rate by 6.9 %, non mineral export by 117.1% and the balance of payments by 22.6% while it decreased the trade balance by 48.4%. Loose fiscal and monetary policies and trade restrictions reduced the potency of nominal exchange rate in attaining real exchange rate depreciation and improvement in the balance of payments of Sierra Leone. The estimated equilibrium real exchange rate model showed that an increase in investment appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate, implying that investment took place more in the non-tradable goods sector than the tradable goods sector of Sierra Leone. Also, deterioration in-terms-of trade and trade restrictions appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate. Nominal exchange rate depreciation leads to depreciation of the real exchange rate, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies appreciate the real exchange rate. Although nominal exchange rate depreciation increases export and hence income, it raises import and therefore deteriorates the trade balance. It is, therefore, recommended that fiscal and monetary policies be coordinated such that tight monetary policy is given priority, as this enhances the benefit of nominal exchange rate depreciation. Also, bolstering domestic capacity for the production of import-competing goods is essential.
EXCHANGE RATE, OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA (1970-2007)
(University of Ibadan, 2010-09-06) JAMEELAH, OMOLARA YAQUB
Exchange rate policy is central to improving the economic performance of a nation. Over the years, Nigeria adopted both the fixed and managed float exchange rate systems in her attempt at attaining a realistic exchange rate. This is to ensure efficient allocation of foreign exchange resources that may pave way for a non-inflationary growth and a well diversified economy. However, the attainment of these goals remained elusive. Earlier studies on the effects of exchange rate on the Nigerian economy ignored differences in sectoral output responses to changes in exchange rate and economic agents’ expectations. This study, therefore, investigated the effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in exchange rate on aggregate and sectoral output, and inflationary trends in Nigeria between 1970 and 2007. A macroeconometric model, based on a modified investment-saving and the liquiditymoney supply framework, was employed using secondary data, to capture the direct and indirect relationships between exchange rate movements, output and inflation. Exchange rate was split into anticipated and unanticipated components using the Autoregressive Moving Average method. The behavioural equations were estimated with the three-stage-least-squares technique and a general-to-specific estimation methodology was employed to ensure that important information was not left out. Statistical tests were used to confirm the goodness of fit of the estimated equations. The Theil’s inequality coefficients and the root mean squared errors were used to gauge the model’s efficiency and tracking ability. Their parameter values were within acceptable range. The model was then used to carry out ex post simulations of the effects of anticipated and unanticipated exchange rate depreciation on output and inflation. Some differences in sectoral output responses to anticipated and unanticipated depreciation were observed. The coefficients of anticipated exchange rate in the equations for aggregate output, agriculture, manufacturing, and output of services were -0.05, -0.15, -0.01, and 0.09, respectively. All of these were statistically significant at 5.00%, implying that anticipated depreciation reduced aggregate output and outputs of agricultural and manufacturing sectors, while it increased services sector’s output. Unanticipated exchange rate had insignificant negative effects on aggregate and sectoral outputs, except for manufacturing where the effect was positive. Anticipated depreciation had a strong inflationary effect with a significant coefficient of 0.28, while the impact of unanticipated exchange rate on inflation was negligible. Simulation results indicated that, on the average, a 15.00% anticipated depreciation would reduce aggregate output by 2.12% and agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors’ outputs by 9.23%, 2.00%, and 5.32% respectively; while it would raise inflation by 17.17%. Anticipated real exchange rate depreciation had significant contractionary effects on aggregate and sectoral outputs (except for the services sector) and promoted inflation, while unanticipated depreciation had negligible effects. This implied that policy neutrality hypothesis may not hold for the Nigerian environment and, more importantly, that existing structures could not support an expansionary argument for exchange rate depreciation during the period of study.
TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN NIGERIA
(University of Ibadan, 2011-11-06) OREKOYA, SAMUEL OLATUNDE
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has pursued, among other goals, low and stable domestic price level and output growth using various monetary policy instruments. Despite these efforts, output growth rate averaged 1.32% between 1980 and 1989 and 2.87% between 1990 and 1999. Also, the monetary authority’s inflation rate target of 5.00% in 1992 and 31.00% in 1995 escalated into 44.59% and 72.81% respectively. There has been limited attempt to investigate the channels through which monetary policy affects output and prices in Nigeria. This study, therefore, empirically investigated monetary policy transmission mechanism and sought to establish the relative effectiveness of various monetary policy instruments in Nigeria. A Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM), predicated on Mishkin framework, that captures the impact of monetary policy in an economy was employed. The MTM focused on bank lending, exchange rate and interest rate channels that are evident in most developing economies like Nigeria. A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, based on monetary policy transmission dynamics, which identified the magnitude and impact of structural shocks, was developed to test the importance of these channels. Generic, composite and separate models including the impulse responses of the channels were estimated. Variance decomposition was also conducted to determine the magnitude of fluctuation attributable to different shocks. With quarterly data from 1970 to 2008, the time series properties of the models’ variables were ascertained using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests. The effectiveness of Reserve Money (RM) as a monetary policy instrument over Interest Rate (IR) was evident as a marginal increase of 0.15% in RM precipitated output and prices decline by 0.20% and 0.60% respectively. The weakness of interest rate (IR) as a policy instrument was shown with an increase of 2.02% in IR yielding no significant response from output and prices. Bank lending declined from 0.89% in the first quarter to 0.23% below the baseline in the second quarter following a marginal increase of 0.05% in RM. Output declined consequently below the baseline by 0.12% and 0.15% while prices rose by 0.15% and 0.10% in the second and third quarters respectively. By implication, the weak response of exchange rate to similar increases in IR of 2.02% and RM of 0.15% suggests that this channel did not capture MTM in Nigeria. Also, output and prices’ non-response to increase in IR of 2.02% and RM of 0.15% suggested that interest rate channel is weak. Bank lending channel remained the existing MTM in Nigeria, while the impact of monetary policy shock on output and prices occurred only after a time-lag of 6years. Reserve Money was a potent policy instrument with output responding more to policy variations than prices. Bank lending remained a significant channel for propagating policies to target variables. The CBN should therefore focus more on the use of RM as a policy instrument rather than a hybrid of reserve money and interest rate. There should also be emphasis on price level stability since this has the tendency of fostering output growth.
EXTERNAL DEBT, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA
(UNIVERSITY OF BENIN, 2012-07-01) Tuffour, Joseph Kwadwo
The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the influence of external debt on economic growth and investment in Ghana. The specific objectives are to determine the: impact of external debt on GDP growth, the threshold level at which external debt becomes burdensome and the possible growth loss of exceeding external debt threshold and lastly to determine whether or not external debt crowds out investment. A macroeconomic framework of economic growth was developed with linkages to investment and external debt. This served as the methodological basis. The econometric model specifications entail equations explaining output and investment. The research used time series data over the period 1970 – 2009. Non-linear Least Squares and Two Stage Least Square estimation methods were used. In addition, summary statistics and graphical approaches were applied. A non-linear relationship between external debt and output growth was established. The external debt threshold was estimated to be 46.2 percent, supporting the external debt Laffer curve hypothesis. The positive contribution of external debt (at lower levels up to the threshold) supports the notion that, a certain minimum requirement of external debt is necessary to support the growth process. On the other hand, beyond the threshold level of external debt accumulation, the impact of external debt on economic growth begins to fall. The threshold level suggests that, Ghana encounters growth rate problems at a moderate external debt to GDP ratio. The research also reveals a cumulative economic growth loss of 12.28 percentage points (indicating the growth loss when the estimated external debt threshold is exceeded). This leads to an annual average growth loss of 0.31 percentage points, showing how high growth would have been if the external debt to GDP ratio had stayed at 46.2 percent. The research further shows that, beyond the threshold level, the positive impact of foreign debt on growth would begin to fall until the external debt to GDP ratio reaches 92 percent. Any foreign debt acquired further than the 92 percent of GDP would actually reduce output growth. In addition, the research unravels the existence of the debt overhang problem. This occurs in two ways through: crowding out effect on private investment, constraining public sector liquidity as well as discouraging private investment. Also, it was noted that, the accelerator effect applies in Ghana for the study period.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE-RISK PRICING IN THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET
(University Of Ibadan, 2012-07-22) AFOLABI, EMMANUEL OLOWOOKERE
Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) is a major source of liquidity to domestic firms. However, foreign exchange-risk makes returns to foreign investors uncertain thereby discouraging FPI. This uncertainty is more pronounced in developing economies where exchange rates play key roles and markets for hedging are underdeveloped. While studies from different economies have shown that firms hedge foreign exchange-risk or pay a premium to investors who bear it, previous studies on Nigeria have paid little attention to this important source of risk. A manifestation of this risk was the exchange rate depreciation from N117.97 per US dollars in 2007 to N132 in 2008 coinciding with an outflow of N633.96 billion from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). Therefore, this study analysed the foreign exchange-risk exposure and the premium (price) paid to risk-averse investors bearing this risk. The Adler and Dumas international capital asset pricing model was modified to incorporate the liquidity state of the NSE and this provided the framework for estimating the Fama and MacBeth two-pass regressions. Employing NSE data on 200 Nigerian firms from January 2000 to December 2009, the first-pass time-series regressions were used to estimate the risk exposure, while the second-pass pooled cross-sectional time-series regressions, with corrected standard errors, were used to estimate the risk prices. The pooled regressions solved the error-in-variable problem and the loss of the first five years typical of the Fama and MacBeth method. Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) were also computed and used to complement changes in the bilateral rates and Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that were the conventional measures of foreign exchange-risk. Moreover, empirical analyses were broken down by firm-size, sector and episodes of exchange rate changes. More than 80.0% of Nigerian firms were exposed to bilateral exchange rate risk; over 60.0% to PPP-deviation risk and about 12.0% to REER risk. Foreign exchange-risk exposure was mostly negative; implying that Nigerian firms were net importers. Thus, because firms were unable to hedge their exposure to foreign exchange risk, their average monthly values reduced by 1.67% as a result of exchange rate depreciation. Foreign exchange-risk exposure was higher generally in larger firms and particularly in financial firms and there was the tendency for more firms to be exposed during episodes of naira depreciation. Further, foreign exchange-risk was priced (undiversifiable) on the NSE as risk-averse investors demanded a monthly premium of 1.65% on the bilateral rate risk, 0.99% on the PPP-deviation risk and 0.23% on the REER risk. Exposure to the bilateral exchange rate risk, the PPP-deviation risk and REER risk therefore raised the annual cost of capital of Nigerian firms by 19.80%, 11.88% and 2.76% respectively. The widespread foreign exchange-risk exposure commanded a risk premium on the Nigerian stock market. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should recognise that firms‘ costs of capital tend to rise as Nigeria‘s exchange rate system becomes more market-determined and should design appropriate instruments for hedging. Nigerian firms also need to actively manage their exposure to foreign exchange-risk.
Essays on Monetary Policy, Institutions and Terms of Trade Shocks in Emerging Market Economies
(University of Cape Town, 2012-11-06) Hove, Seedwell
Abstract This thesis focuses on two important features of emerging market economies: institutional weaknesses and the exposure to commodity terms of trade shocks and how they shape the macroeconomic dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy. These issues are discussed in three essays. The first essay empirically evaluates the role of institutional structures in inflation targeting in emerging market economies (EMEs). The second essay theoretically investigates the appropriate monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks using a multi-sector New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Finally, the third essay empirically analyses the .responses of different monetary policy regimes to commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies. The first essay investigates whether monetary, fiscal and financial institutional structures really matter for the achievement of inflation targets in emerging market economies. Particular emphasis is placed on the extent to which inflation deviations from target bands are affected by central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial sector development. The study contnoutes to the literature by taking stock of the intrinsic role played by institutional structures in the achievement of inflation targets since the adoption of inflation targeting in EMEs. Using the panel ordered logit model, the analysis shows that improvement in central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial systems reduces the probability of inflation target misses. Precisely, countries with more independent central banks tend to achieve inflation targets more frequently. A one percent increase in central bank independence increases the probability of achieving the target band by 0.16%, while reducing the probability of inflation being above the target band by 0.11%. Moreover, countries with weak fiscal institutions and less developed financial systems have a higher probability of missing their inflation targets. The improvement in institutional structures also enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy. The thesis also provides evidence that other macroeconomic and structural variables such as exchange rate gap, output gapt inflation target horizon and level of openness explain inflation target misses. The results suggest that there is need to continue to reform institutional structures in order to achieve sustainable price stability.
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY COORDINATION AND MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION IN NIGERIA
(University of Benin, 2014-01-10) OKWUOKEI, JOEL CHIEDU
In Nigeria, policymakers and researchers acknowledge the importance of policy coordination between the government and the central bank in promoting economic growth and price stability. Yet, what is not understood in the literature is the extent of policy coordination, and whether the performance of the economy could be influenced by the level of coordination. Against this background, the objective of the study was to investigate the extent of monetary and fiscal policy coordination in Nigeria in the context of macroeconomic stabilization, and establish the implications for economic performance. To explore this issue, the study deployed a general framework specifying fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions to characterize the interaction between the government and the central bank. Using annual data, empirical analyses were conducted for the full sample 1980 – 2009, and for sub–periods, 1980–1999, and 2000–2009, applying the Two-Stage Least Squares estimation technique. The major findings are as follows. First, depending on the fiscal measure adopted, fiscal policy was either pro-cyclical, or countercyclical, while monetary policy was generally pro-cyclical. Second, fiscal policy has a significant lag effect on the economy, reflecting delays in federal budgeting. Third, fiscal policy was better than monetary policy in maintaining external balance. Fourth, monetary policy response to economic imbalances, especially to inflation reflects attempt to accommodate fiscal expansion but implied a sacrifice of the price stability objective. Fifth, fiscal and monetary policies displayed inconsistent patterns, partly reflecting incoherent macroeconomic framework for policy coordination. And finally, monetary and fiscal policy coordination lacked empirical support for the full sample and in 1980-1999, while there was ample evidence of coordination during 2000-2009 albeit with role reversal. The results suggest that fiscal policy rather than monetary would have greater influence on output in macroeconomic stabilization in contrast with findings of previous studies. Nevertheless, monetary policy could be useful when fiscal policy fails. Overall, evidence suggests that combining both policies would produce better outcomes. The findings also highlighted the need for diversification of the economy as the best line of defense against downside risk stemming from the strong reliance on the oil sector. In light of the lag effect of fiscal policy, there is the need for measures to minimize, or possibly eliminate delays in federal budgeting. To achieve external balance, attention should focus on curtailing government spending. Furthermore, monetization of fiscal deficit should be avoided. The inconsistent pattern of policy responses calls for an integrated and coherent macroeconomic framework with the fiscal and monetary authorities working closely together to achieve the objectives of economic growth and price stability. Policy coordination is desirable and could be beneficial as it permitted both the government and the central bank to address a wider range of economic issues, which was reflected in the actual performance of output, inflation, and the balance of payment in 2000–2009.
SUSTAINABILITY OF MICROFINANCE AND HOUSEHOLD ACCESS TO CREDIT: EVIDENCE FROM CÔTE D’IVOIRE
(University of Felix Houphouët Boigny, 2014-01-23) TOGBA, Leadaut Edith Prisca
The attainment of sustainability is critical for the long term viability of microfinance institutions (MFIs), which provide a set of financial products to all those excluded from formal financial system, in particularly to the low income households. But, such preoccupations force some MFIs to divert from their social missions in favor of profit. This thesis is out to propose mechanisms that will permit MFIs not only to be long lasting but also to reduce the credit burdens on households in Côte d’Ivoire, in other to mutually satisfy MFIs and households By using simultaneous equations and Heckman two steps models as well as the model of Stackelberg, the study brings out that a good capitalization or equity and the low administrative costs have important effects on the sustainability of the MFIs. Then, Savings and the grants remain only the resources facilitating the accessibility to the credit of the poor borrowers. However, as it is shown in this thesis by the model of Stackelberg, the usage of subsidy as a way of financing the extension of credit in the low-income households is effective only if the proportion of rich borrowers is high. Besides, from the analysis of credit source choice, the results reveal the size of the loan, agricultural purpose, the geographical area where households live and ethnicity as factors influencing the choice for formal sources.
CAUSES DE LA PRESSION SUR LES FORETS PERIURBAINES DE BANGUI : UNE ANALYSE DES STRUCTURES DE L’OFFRE ET DE LA DEMANDE DE BOIS ENERGIE
(Université de Yaoundé II, 2014-02-03) MBALLA, Urbain Nerry Cyrille
La RCA dispose d’une large couverture forestière estimée à 22,605 millions d’ha avec une prédominance des forêts ouvertes. Mais, elle ne cesse d’enregistrer de perte depuis la première évaluation des ressources forestières de la FAO en 1990. Sur la période 1990-2010, le pays a perdu près de 600.000 ha de son couvert. Au niveau des grands centres urbains comme la capitale Bangui, les forêts reculent dans l’ordre de 0,3 km par an suite à l’expansion agricole à petite échelle mais, surtout à la collecte du bois énergie qui en est l’élément déclencheur. Cette collecte de bois énergie représente 70% de tous les prélèvements du bois dans le pays. L’objet de cette thèse est d’analyser les causes de la pression du bois énergie sur les forêts périurbaines de Bangui. Plus spécifiquement il s’agit d’évaluer d’une part le rôle de la qualité des institutions locales sur le choix du site de collecte de bois énergie et d’autre part les influences des prix des énergies modernes et du revenu sur la dépendance au bois énergie des ménages de la ville de Bangui. La théorie des droits de propriété et celle de l’échelle des énergies ont été utilisées comme les fondements théoriques. Au plan opératoire, le modèle probit multinomial a été utilisé dans un premier temps pour évaluer le rôle des institutions locales dans le choix du site de collecte de bois énergie. Comme résultat, la collecte de bois énergie dans la région des Plateaux est faite de manière anarchique. En d’autres termes, les producteurs collectent le bois principalement dans les forêts communales et publiques, et cela s’explique par la distance entre les villages et les villes les plus proches c'est-à-dire la proximité avec le milieu urbain, l’absence du titre légal de propriété, le faible niveau d’éducation en milieu rural et la faible qualité des institutions locales dans la gestion des ressources. Ceci parce qu’il n’existe dans ces milieux ni de contrôle sur l’accès aux forêts, ni de restriction sur la quantité de bois à prélever et encore moins de sanction pour réprimer les comportements déviants. En second lieu, le modèle de sélection est utilisé pour évaluer les déterminants du choix de bois énergie et de la part du budget allouée à cette source. L’estimation est faite par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance. Les résultats ont montré que les principaux facteurs de la dépendance au bois énergie sont l’indicateur de prix des énergies modernes, le revenu des ménages et l’usage du foyer traditionnel. Concernant la variable revenu, son niveau exerce une influence négative sur la probabilité du choix, et une fois choisi, les ménages ayant un revenu entre 20.000 et 720.000 F CFA ont tendance à augmenter leurs demandes de bois lorsque le revenu augmente.
HEALTH EXPENDITURE, HEALTH OUTCOMES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
(UNIVERSITY OF BENIN, 2015-07-01) ARTHUR, Eric
The study examines the interrelationship among health expenditure, health outcomes and economic growth in some selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. These countries have made significant efforts in increasing health expenditure over the years, with the aim of improving health outcomes and accelerating economic growth. Despite this, health outcomes have only responded marginally in SSA, raising concerns on the significance of health expenditure in improving health outcomes. Besides, empirical evidence of the effect of health outcomes on economic growth is mixed. This study thus investigates the effect of health expenditure on health outcomes, applying the fixed effects model. Further, the study examines the effect of health outcomes on economic growth using the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. Lastly, the study tests the causal relationship among health expenditure, health outcomes, and economic growth using Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. The data for the study were sourced from the 2012 World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) for a sample of 40 SSA countries from 1995 to 2011. The findings from the study indicate that health expenditure has a significant, but inelastic effect on health outcomes in SSA, reducing mortality rates and improving life expectancy at birth. Reductions in mortality rates were significantly influenced by public health expenditure, whereas improvements in life expectancy at birth were significantly influenced by private health expenditure. There is, however, a strong complementary relationship between private and public health expenditures in SSA, despite the dominance of the former over the latter. In addition, clean water, proper sanitation and immunisation rates were found to enhance health outcomes, whereas the prevalence of diseases and urban population growth rates had deleterious effects on health outcomes. Health outcomes were also found to contribute significantly to economic growth in SSA. The empirical evidence indicates that this was driven more by reductions in mortality rates than by improvements in life expectancy at birth in the region. Physical capital, education and openness to trade contribute positively to economic growth, whereas the age dependency ratio serves as a drag on growth rate. Lastly, the findings indicate bidirectional causality between health expenditure and health outcomes, between health outcomes and economic growth and unidirectional causality from health expenditure to economic growth. xiii Given the significant, but inelastic effect of health expenditure on health outcomes and the significant contribution of health outcomes to economic growth, the study recommends that SSA countries should make efforts to increase health expenditure to improve health outcomes in order to speed up growth. In particular, there should be deliberate efforts to increase public health expenditure with a view to reducing the burden of private health spending on individuals. This perhaps can be achieved through effective health insurance schemes, which will enable people to save against financial crisis that may arise due to ill health, thereby reducing out-of-pocket health expenditure. In addition, there is the need for public enlightenment on the importance of constant health check-ups given the significance of the use of preventive health care in enhancing health outcomes. Furthermore, it is necessary to improve environmental conditions due to the negative effects of such conditions on health outcomes. Finally, there is the need to manage the population growth rates in SSA countries to reduce the age dependency ratio in order to enhance the growth rate of per capita GDP in the region.
EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND FIRM-LEVEL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN NIGERIA
(University of Ibadan, 2015-07-06) OLANIPEKUN, DAYO BENEDICT
Exchange rate volatility (the risk associated with unexpected movements in exchange rate) adversely affects economic activities, both at the micro and macro levels, because it increases uncertainty. Between 1990 and 2012, Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility ranged from 0.1% to 38.8%, while the average annual growth of exports of manufacturing firms declined from 12.7% to -27.4%. Previous studies generally focused on the effects of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic variables with little attention on firm-level activities. This study, therefore, examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on firmlevel investment, output and export in Nigeria. Three semi-log equations (investment, output and export), based on the theory of the firm, were estimated. Data were collected on 50 manufacturing firms and were classified into oil and gas, food products, beverages, conglomerates, healthcare, agricultural, household durables, industrial goods, printing and publishing, automobile and tyres sub-sectors. The criteria for sample selection were based on data availability and representativeness of the various sub-sectors. Firm-level data were obtained from the firms’ Annual Reports and Financial Statements and macroeconomic data were collected from International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics Year Book. Exchange rate volatility was computed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckedacity (GARCH) model. The one-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was used to determine the effects of exchange rate volatility on firm-level investment, output and export, while the Hansen, Sargan and Breusch-Godfrey diagnostic tests were carried out to establish the robustness of the parameter estimates. Statistical significance was determined at the 5% level. Exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on firm-level investment, output and export, with disparities across sub-sectors. A percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ investment by 0.4% and 0.7% in the agricultural and household durable subsectors, respectively. The relatively low reduction of investment in agriculture was attributed to limited imported inputs. On output, a percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ output in the food products, beverages, healthcare, and automobile and tyres sub-sectors by 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.8% and 0.01%, respectively. The effect of exchange rate volatility was lower on firms’ output in the automobile and tyres sub-sector as the firms in the sub-sector earned foreign exchange and were able to hedge against the risk of exchange rate volatility. A percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ export in the food products, beverages and healthcare sub-sectors by 1.1%, 3.1% and 4.0%, in that order. These relatively high percentages suggested that exports by firms in the subsectors would decline significantly in the event of exchange rate volatility. All these results showed that the sampled firms were heavily dependent on external trade which was influenced by exchange rate volatility. Exchange rate volatility led to a decline in firm-level investment, output and export in Nigeria. Effective management of exchange rate by the monetary authority is desirable in order to moderate the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on firm-level economic activities
INDOOR AIR POLLUTION FROM HOUSEHOLD ENERGY USE IN KENYA: ANALYSIS OF THE HEALTH OUTCOMES AND ABATEMENT EFFORTS
(University of Nairobi, 2015-09-08) OSIOLO, HELEN HOKA
This thesis investigates the health outcomes of indoor air pollution from household energy use and demand for IAP abatement interventions. It has four objectives; first it determines the factors that influence the levels of indoor air pollution from household energy use, second it investigates the association between indoor air pollution form household energy use and ill health, third it estimates the health cost and productivity effects of household energy use and lastly it analyses the demand for indoor air pollution abatement interventions. The study uses data from the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey conducted by the Government of Kenya in 2005/06. Different approaches, including; the Conditional Mixed Process ordered probit, Multivariate regression and the Heckman sample selection models are used to correct for endogeneity, address unobserved heterogeneity and sample selection bias. The study also uses the cost of illness approach to estimate the health cost and productivity effects of household energy use. The results indicate that education, income and type of dwelling are the key factors that influence the level of indoor air pollution. In particular, households with low levels of income and those living in manyatta type of dwellings are likely to encounter high levels of indoor air pollution. The findings indicate that household members using firewood, kerosene and traditional stove appliances are likely to manifest upper respiratory infection, lower respiratory infection and eyes illness. In addition, the health cost for lower respiratory illness and eyes illness are found to be higher than for upper respiratory illness. Consequently the results show that; the geographical location, type of household energy used, cooking place/area, type of dwelling, income and whether households had a chimney or not are key factors that determines the demand for indoor air pollution abatement interventions. In order to reduce indoor air pollution and improve health outcomes, it is important the government introduces policies that target reduction of indoor air pollution from household energy use. Though such policies may include enhancing the use of modern energy, improved stoves and chimney as indoor air pollution abatement interventions; there is need to focus on income, education, age, and residential location.
FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION IN TANZANIA (1967-2011)
(University of Dar es Salaam, 2015-10-22) Mtui, John Michael
The study analyses the effect of fiscal adjustment in promoting economic growth and the fight against inflation in Tanzania from 1967 to 2011. The study is underpinned by both descriptive and econometric analyses based on a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag error correction model. The study findings confirm that: public investment spending, public consumption spending, real exchange rate depreciation, private investments are growth enhancing. Economic and fiscal reforms of the mid 1980s and 1990s, respectively, augment economic growth in the long-run. Only lagged GDP, public consumption spending, real exchange rate and trade openness have significant effects on economic growth in the short-run. The long-run estimates of the inflation model indicate real GDP growth and nominal exchange rate have impact on inflation. Budget deficit is significant but seem to have a negative effect on price development. Thus, abstinence from cutting public investment spending and curtailing non-productive expenditures should be observed. Such measures as the adoption of Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as a planning and strategy for reducing wasteful expenditure and the expenditure reprioritization and efficiency instituted through NSGRP should be sustained. Attainment of price stability in Tanzania hinges on stable economic growth and exchange rate. This requires a credible and sustained fiscal policy, supported by an appropriate exchange rate and monetary policies. Rationalization of public spending and expenditure efficiency are critical. To sustain GDP growth and thus price stability, there is a need to improve productivity.
FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
(University of Benin, 2015-11-06) OGBEIDE, FRANK IYEKORETIN
Financial sector reform was part of the structural adjustment programme (SAP) adopted in the early 1980s by countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with the aim of promoting financial development and macroeconomic performance. Despite this, financial systems have only responded marginally in SSA, raising concerns on the significance of financial reforms in improving financial development, and its transmission effect on economic performance. Besides, empirical evidence explaining the effects of financial reforms on financial development and economic performance appear mixed. Thus, this study investigates the impact of financial reform on financial development, using both traditional panel and the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator. Further, the study examines the effect of financial reform on economic performance, and lastly, test for causality among financial reform, financial development and economic performance using Multivariate Vector Autoregressive (MVAR) model. The data for the study were sourced from the 2013 World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a sample of 14 SSA countries for the period 1980 to 2012. The findings from the study indicate that policies of financial reform (especially the reform of domestic banking sector) have led to financial development in the overall SSA countries. Furthermore, results show that financial reform positively and significantly support growth in real output, domestic investment, human development, but, however, reduces the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in the region. These results were significantly different using income and stock market effects, confirming their importance in explaining the effectiveness of financial reform on financial development and economic performance in the continent. Specifically, financial reform has a negative, but significant effect on financial development in low income economies, whereas the impact was positive and significant in countries classified as lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income economies. Financial reform significantly promote growth in real per capita GDP in both low-income and lower-middle-income economies (same with results obtained for the overall sample) but adversely affect per capita income growth in upper-middle-income countries. Results also show that financial reform has a positive effect on human development, irrespective of income classification of sampled countries. However, financial reform generates economic instability in both lower-middle-income and upper-middle income countries, but was found to restrain the occurrence of macroeconomic uncertainties in low-income economies. The results show that the presence of domestic stock market (even in country-specific analysis using data from Nigeria and South Africa) improves the positive transmission effect of financial reform across all performance metrics, but raises the possibility of occurrence of macroeconomic instability in the region. From the causality test analysis, financial reform causes financial development in about 36% of the entire sample countries, while reverse causality holds in 14% of the countries, and another 14% showing evidence of feedback effects between financial reform and financial development. In addition, about 36% of the countries studied show that financial reform causes growth in per capita income, 7.0% revealed that per capita income growth intensifies the need for financial reforms, while 57.0% showed no clear flow of causality. Also, the causality test result shows financial reform lead to human development in over a third of countries covered, while no causation was observed in 57% of the entire sample. Lastly, 21.3% of countries showed that financial liberalisation lead directly to macroeconomic instability, 14.3% shows reversed causality, whereas the remaining 64.3% of sampled countries did not indicate any form of causality. This study recommends that policy makers in SSA should simultaneously consider the financial and real sectors as interdependent. Governments of countries in SSA should make a conscious effort to reduce or eliminate the negative effects of inflation and natural resource dependence on domestic financial development, and other economic performance fundamentals. Improving access to more diversified financial services/products induced by policies of financial reform would support inclusive growth that reduces poverty and boost human development. Lastly, monetary authorities in the region should promote a prudential framework in line with the unique economic structures of their economy and ensure that policies of financial liberalisation are cautiously implemented in a stable economy with appropriate institutional framework to avoid undesirable outcome.
URBAN HOUSEHOLD ROAD TRAVEL DEMAND AND TRANSPORT MODE CHOICE :The Case of Kampala, Uganda
(University of Dar es Salaam, 2015-11-22) Watundu, Susan
This study assesses the determinants of urban household road travel demand and transport mode choice. A negative binomial and ordinary least squares regression, and the alternative specific conditional logit model are estimated using survey data. Results consistently show that daily demand for travel is inversely related to the cost of travel and positively related to average monthly income. Trip volumes increase with household size, age, and education level of the household head, but decreases with car ownership and private sector employment as compared to public sector employment. Distance travelled falls with household size, age and education level but increases with car ownership. An increase in travel time by using a given transport mode reduces the probability of using that mode while the chances of choosing other modes increases. Relative to the chances of choosing a taxi (14-seater minibus), an increase in travel cost and income increases the chances of using a private car or boda-boda (motorcycle); the probability of choosing a private car or boda-boda is inversely related to trip length and average daily trip volume; rich households as compared to the poor and larger households prefer a private car instead of boda-boda; those with older heads prefer less of boda-boda and private car; unlike female headed households, male headed ones are more likely to choose boda-boda instead of a private car. A combination of solutions is required for sustainable travel demand and traffic management: provision of an efficient public transit system coupled with increased private car parking costs, promotion of car- pooling; road tolls for drive-alone private cars; limiting access times and
POVERTY DYNAMICS IN KAGERA REGION – 1991-2010
(University of Dar es Salaam, 2016-10-06) Pantaleo, Innocent Muganyizi
This study examines the dynamics of poverty in Kagera Region during 1991-2010 period using the Kagera Health and Demographic Survey panel data. First, the study decomposes the Kagera headcount poverty index into growth, inequality and rural/urban population shift effects using Son (2003) approach. The results show population shifts was pro-poor and growth led to reduction of poverty within the region. These results imply that there is need for pro-poor employment creation strategies in urban areas and increased productivity in rural areas. Second, employing the fixed effects model and dynamic panel data estimators and borrowing from Ravallion (1988) approach, the study examines the dynamics of household‘s consumption and vulnerability. The dynamic panel data estimators show that Life Cycle Hypothesis for consumption smoothing does not hold, whereas the Ravallion (1988) approach show that risk to poverty is less for the 1991 poverty line and high for 2010 poverty line. Thus, pro-poor farming approaches and earmarking resources for consumption stabilization interventions are needed. Lastly, the study examines a household‘s duration in poverty and factors accounting for falling into or moving out of poverty. The non- parametric and semi-parametric discrete data spell approaches are employed. The non-parametric results show that poverty is transitory, and that male-headed households have a higher likelihood of exiting poverty than female-headed ones. The duration variables have significant positive effect for exiting poverty. In this regard, policy may entail enhancing social networks and improving the balance in resource distribution and allocation between sexes.
ASSURANCE MALADIE ET UTILISATION DES SERVICES DE SANTE AU BENIN
(DE L’UNIVERSITE D’ABOMEY-CALAVI (BENIN), 2017-04-21) ZOUNMENOU, Alexandre Yédjannavo
L’utilisation des services de santé constitue un des facteurs indispensables à l’amélioration de l’état de santé des populations. Ainsi, de nombreux efforts ont été consacrés par les autorités nationales et les partenaires extérieurs au cours des dernières décennies pour améliorer l’offre des services de santé dans les pays en développement. Mais, force est de constater que l’utilisation des services de santé reste toujours faible en Afrique. Au Bénin, le taux de couverture en infrastructure sanitaire est de 93,1% en 2015. Ce fort taux témoigne d’une meilleure couverture en infrastructure sanitaire. Cependant, le taux de fréquentation des services de santé est relativement faible et s’établit à 50,3%. Compte tenu de l’écart entre ces deux taux, les travaux sur l’utilisation des services de santé soutiennent en majorité que recentrer le débat de l’accès aux soins de santé du côté de la demande va permettre d’améliorer l’utilisation des services de santé pour les couches défavorisées de la population. La présente dissertation doctorale mobilise les théories de la demande pour analyser l’utilisation des services de santé au Bénin. Elle s’organise autour de trois chapitres et défend la thèse selon laquelle la faible utilisation des services de santé au Bénin est due à la faible couverture en assurance maladie. Les modèles de choix discrets développés tout au long du travail, logit dans les deux premiers chapitres et logit multinomial dans le troisième chapitre, fournissent des arguments empiriques pour valider les développements théoriques. Les analyses du premier chapitre nous ont permis de conclure que l’assurance maladie publique favorise l’utilisation des services de santé. L’amélioration de l’utilisation des services de santé au Bénin passe donc par l’augmentation de la couverture en assurance maladie publique. L’influence des groupes d’assurance informelle (nujè mèji gbê) sur l’utilisation des services de santé reste mitigée. Cependant, l’appartenance à un groupe d’assurance informelle contribue à réduire les dépenses de santé. Le logit multinomial estimé dans le troisième chapitre nous a permis de confirmer l’intuition selon laquelle l’assurance maladie formelle est réservée aux ménages riches et aux ménages dirigés par des individus ayant fait des études supérieures. Toutefois, les mutuelles de santé initiées pour étendre la protection contre le risque maladie aux travailleurs du secteur informel et plus précisément aux ménages pauvres ne leur sont pas accessibles.

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