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    ANALYSE DE L’ACTIVITE DE TAXI-MOTO AU BENIN
    (Université de Yaoundé II, 2017-04-22) DJOSSOU, Gbetoton Nadège Adèle
    Au Bénin, le transport des personnes est principalement assuré par les taxis-motos. De ce fait, l’activité de conducteur de taxi-moto offre chaque année des opportunités d’emploi à des milliers d’individus. Mais, l’exercice de cette activité est associé à de nombreux risques d’accident. L’objet de la présente thèse est d’analyser l’activité de conducteur de taxi-moto à Cotonou (Bénin) à travers (i) les déterminants de son choix, (ii) les risques d’accident qui y sont associés et (iii) la demande d’assurance des conducteurs de taxi-moto contre ces risques. Nous avons modélisé la décision de choix de l’activité de taxi-moto à partir d’un graphe qui met en relation les revenus issus de l’activité de taxi-moto, les niveaux d’éducation des conducteurs de taxi-moto ainsi que leur degré d’aversion au risque. Il en ressort qu’en général ceux qui choisissent l’activité ont de faibles niveaux d’éducation et de compétence et ont le goût du risque. Nous avons ensuite montré à partir d’un modèle hédonique, que les revenus issus de l’activité (en moyenne 5.144 FCFA par jour) sont insuffisants pour couvrir les risques y afférents. Cependant, pour ne pas rester au chômage, les individus choisissent de l’exercer en dépit de ces risques. Pour finir nous avons évalué à partir d’une enquête contingente auprès d’un échantillon de 431 conducteurs de taxi-moto, leur Consentement à Payer (CAP) pour s’assurer contre les risques d’accident auxquels ils font face dans l’exercice de leur profession. L’estimateur de Turnbull nous a permis d’estimer le CAP moyen à environ 1.600FCFA par mois pour les questions à simple choix dichotomique et à environ 2.000FCFA par mois pour les questions à double choix dichotomique. Plus la perception des risques d’accident par un conducteur de taxi-moto est élevée et plus grande est son CAP pour s’assurer. L’assurance étant une forme d’épargne, il est plus facile pour ceux qui ont des habitudes d’épargne de s’assurer.
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    ASSURANCE MALADIE ET UTILISATION DES SERVICES DE SANTE AU BENIN
    (DE L’UNIVERSITE D’ABOMEY-CALAVI (BENIN), 2017-04-21) ZOUNMENOU, Alexandre Yédjannavo
    L’utilisation des services de santé constitue un des facteurs indispensables à l’amélioration de l’état de santé des populations. Ainsi, de nombreux efforts ont été consacrés par les autorités nationales et les partenaires extérieurs au cours des dernières décennies pour améliorer l’offre des services de santé dans les pays en développement. Mais, force est de constater que l’utilisation des services de santé reste toujours faible en Afrique. Au Bénin, le taux de couverture en infrastructure sanitaire est de 93,1% en 2015. Ce fort taux témoigne d’une meilleure couverture en infrastructure sanitaire. Cependant, le taux de fréquentation des services de santé est relativement faible et s’établit à 50,3%. Compte tenu de l’écart entre ces deux taux, les travaux sur l’utilisation des services de santé soutiennent en majorité que recentrer le débat de l’accès aux soins de santé du côté de la demande va permettre d’améliorer l’utilisation des services de santé pour les couches défavorisées de la population. La présente dissertation doctorale mobilise les théories de la demande pour analyser l’utilisation des services de santé au Bénin. Elle s’organise autour de trois chapitres et défend la thèse selon laquelle la faible utilisation des services de santé au Bénin est due à la faible couverture en assurance maladie. Les modèles de choix discrets développés tout au long du travail, logit dans les deux premiers chapitres et logit multinomial dans le troisième chapitre, fournissent des arguments empiriques pour valider les développements théoriques. Les analyses du premier chapitre nous ont permis de conclure que l’assurance maladie publique favorise l’utilisation des services de santé. L’amélioration de l’utilisation des services de santé au Bénin passe donc par l’augmentation de la couverture en assurance maladie publique. L’influence des groupes d’assurance informelle (nujè mèji gbê) sur l’utilisation des services de santé reste mitigée. Cependant, l’appartenance à un groupe d’assurance informelle contribue à réduire les dépenses de santé. Le logit multinomial estimé dans le troisième chapitre nous a permis de confirmer l’intuition selon laquelle l’assurance maladie formelle est réservée aux ménages riches et aux ménages dirigés par des individus ayant fait des études supérieures. Toutefois, les mutuelles de santé initiées pour étendre la protection contre le risque maladie aux travailleurs du secteur informel et plus précisément aux ménages pauvres ne leur sont pas accessibles.
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    CAUSES DE LA PRESSION SUR LES FORETS PERIURBAINES DE BANGUI : UNE ANALYSE DES STRUCTURES DE L’OFFRE ET DE LA DEMANDE DE BOIS ENERGIE
    (Université de Yaoundé II, 2014-02-03) MBALLA, Urbain Nerry Cyrille
    La RCA dispose d’une large couverture forestière estimée à 22,605 millions d’ha avec une prédominance des forêts ouvertes. Mais, elle ne cesse d’enregistrer de perte depuis la première évaluation des ressources forestières de la FAO en 1990. Sur la période 1990-2010, le pays a perdu près de 600.000 ha de son couvert. Au niveau des grands centres urbains comme la capitale Bangui, les forêts reculent dans l’ordre de 0,3 km par an suite à l’expansion agricole à petite échelle mais, surtout à la collecte du bois énergie qui en est l’élément déclencheur. Cette collecte de bois énergie représente 70% de tous les prélèvements du bois dans le pays. L’objet de cette thèse est d’analyser les causes de la pression du bois énergie sur les forêts périurbaines de Bangui. Plus spécifiquement il s’agit d’évaluer d’une part le rôle de la qualité des institutions locales sur le choix du site de collecte de bois énergie et d’autre part les influences des prix des énergies modernes et du revenu sur la dépendance au bois énergie des ménages de la ville de Bangui. La théorie des droits de propriété et celle de l’échelle des énergies ont été utilisées comme les fondements théoriques. Au plan opératoire, le modèle probit multinomial a été utilisé dans un premier temps pour évaluer le rôle des institutions locales dans le choix du site de collecte de bois énergie. Comme résultat, la collecte de bois énergie dans la région des Plateaux est faite de manière anarchique. En d’autres termes, les producteurs collectent le bois principalement dans les forêts communales et publiques, et cela s’explique par la distance entre les villages et les villes les plus proches c'est-à-dire la proximité avec le milieu urbain, l’absence du titre légal de propriété, le faible niveau d’éducation en milieu rural et la faible qualité des institutions locales dans la gestion des ressources. Ceci parce qu’il n’existe dans ces milieux ni de contrôle sur l’accès aux forêts, ni de restriction sur la quantité de bois à prélever et encore moins de sanction pour réprimer les comportements déviants. En second lieu, le modèle de sélection est utilisé pour évaluer les déterminants du choix de bois énergie et de la part du budget allouée à cette source. L’estimation est faite par la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance. Les résultats ont montré que les principaux facteurs de la dépendance au bois énergie sont l’indicateur de prix des énergies modernes, le revenu des ménages et l’usage du foyer traditionnel. Concernant la variable revenu, son niveau exerce une influence négative sur la probabilité du choix, et une fois choisi, les ménages ayant un revenu entre 20.000 et 720.000 F CFA ont tendance à augmenter leurs demandes de bois lorsque le revenu augmente.
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    Climate variability, agricultural productivity, and household welfare outcomes in Uganda
    (African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-10-17) Babyenda, Peter
    Eighty-five percent of Ugandans depend largely on rain-fed agriculture to make a living. Thus, they are exposed to the effects of variability in climate. Evidence shows that changes in climate are taking place in all regions of Uganda with noticeable changes in precipitation and temperature including persistence of adverse weather occurrences such as prolonged drought, floods, landslides, and rising temperatures. According to the World Bank, climate variability is projected to cause a global agricultural production loss of about US$1.5 billion by the year 2050. This is likely to extend to Uganda’s main foreign exchange earning crops (such as coffee and maize) leading to combined economic losses among farm households of about US$1.4 billion by the year 2050. Against this backdrop, this thesis investigates the effect of variability in climate on the productivity of agriculture and the welfare outcomes of households in Uganda. The thesis further explores the factors influencing the decision of households to adapt to variability in climate and assesses welfare differences between the adapting and non-adapting households.
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    Comparative Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria
    (University of Benin, 2021-08-04) Akinkuotu, Oluwayemisi
    This study empirically examined the effects of anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary policies on the performance of the stock market. In addition, the study examined the relationship between these policies; whether they act as substitutes or complements in affecting stock market performance. The theoretical contention of Keynesian Economics that a mix of fiscal and monetary policy is the best in achieving macroeconomic objectives serves as the motivation for the study. The study has also been motivated by growing empirical evidence, which shows that the stock market plays an important role in enhancing economic growth. This is because the stock market has been recognized as an important sector of the macro economy, as it stands as a key component of financial system and performs crucial roles for the economic development of a country. However, if the stock market is to perform better, government policies need to be formulated and geared towards the better performance of the stock market. However, there has been no consensus both theoretically and empirically on the effect of government policies on stock market performance, and the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. The study used quarterly time series data on Nigerian stock market over the period 2000 – 2012. The study proceeded by first testing for Stationarity and cointegration of the variables used in the estimation process, having specified the fiscal and monetary policies vector error correction models, for the first and second objective and the vector autoregressive model for the third objective. The values for the anticipated and unanticipated fiscal and monetary policies obtained thereof were then used in the estimation of a model specified to capture stock market performance, as measured by the value of transaction in the market. The empirical results obtained showed that both anticipated fiscal policy and monetary policy had a negative relationship with stock market performance in the long run. It was noticed that, anticipated monetary policy causes more variations in the performance of the stock market than the anticipated fiscal policy component. There exists unilateral relationship between anticipated fiscal and stock market performance, anticipated monetary policy and stock market, interest rate and stock market, stock market and exchange rate, anticipated fiscal policy and exchange rate and interest rate and exchange rate. However, unanticipated fiscal policy actions have a positive and not significant relationship with the stock market, whilst an unanticipated monetary policy action has a minimal positive and significant effect on the stock market. Unanticipated fiscal policy actions have very little impact in its contributions to the stock market, the unanticipated monetary policy also has little impact but it is of a lower magnitude compared to the unanticipated fiscal policy. On the other hand, both unanticipated fiscal and monetary policies did not have a unilateral or bilateral relationship with the stock market performance. Lastly, the study found that fiscal and monetary policies act as complements in their effect on the performance of the stock market. These findings suggest that policy makers need to exercise considerable caution regarding fiscal-monetary policy stance and stock market regulation in Nigeria.
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    CRIMINALITÉ URBAINE ET COMPORTEMENTS DES MÉNAGES : UN EXAMEN DE LA DEMANDE DE SÉCURITÉ DANS LA VILLE DE YAOUNDÉ, CAMEROUN
    (UNIVERSITE DE DSCHANG, 2018-01-04) Armand, MBOUTCHOUANG KOUNTCHOU
    L’objectif de ce travail est d’analyser la demande de sécurité des habitants de la ville de Yaoundé au Cameroun. En s’appuyant sur la caractérisation du bien économique « sécurité », il s’agit d’investiguer tour à tour les demandes de sécurité publique, sécurité communautaire et sécurité privée fondées respectivement sur la dénonciation de la criminalité, le consentement à payer pour la police de proximité, et l’adoption des stratégies individuelles de protection. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’Enquête Urbaine de Victimisation Criminelle réalisée auprès de 676 ménages et 1 346 individus de la ville de Yaoundé. L’étude s’appuie sur des théories et hypothèses inspirées de l’économie du crime et des méthodes d’analyse de données de natures statistique et économétrique. Divers résultats sont obtenus à l’issue des analyses effectuées. Concernant la demande de sécurité publique, les volumes de dénonciation révèlent non seulement la part jusqu’ici importante des chiffres noirs du crime, mais aussi le paradoxe qui caractérise le processus de dénonciation. Le taux de dénonciation de la criminalité est faible et montre que près de 70% des crimes qui surviennent au sein de la société restent inconnus des services de maintien de l’ordre. Aussi, les victimes rapportent plus à la police les épisodes de victimisation liés aux crimes les moins fréquents, alors même que les crimes les plus courants font l’objet d’une faible dénonciation de leur part. La décision de dénoncer la criminalité est fortement ancrée dans l’arbitrage coûts-bénéfices réalisé par les victimes. Pour ce qui est de la demande de sécurité communautaire, l’intérêt des ménages pour la police de proximité s’explique par des facteurs tels que l’expérience de victimisation, le sentiment de sécurité et le niveau de vie. L’estimation la plus optimiste (élevée et sans biais) retenue est la contribution mensuelle de 2 283 FCFA par ménage. Ce montant représente environ 6,3% du SMIG (Salaire Minimum Interprofessionnel Garanti) en vigueur au Cameroun. Enfin, l’analyse de la demande de sécurité privée montre une forte participation des victimes potentielles au marché du crime. Les taux d’adoption des mesures de précaution dans la rue et de protection des domiciles sont respectivement de 65,53% et 64,05%. Un effet de richesse est mis en évidence puisque le taux de protection privée est d’autant plus important que la classe sociale du ménage est élevée. Si les caractéristiques socioéconomiques des ménages déterminent leur comportement de protection, l’efficacité des stratégies de protection en termes de réduction du risque de victimisation n’est pas en reste.
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    DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE IN NIGERIA 1980-2015
    (University of Ibadan, 2019-07-22) PERIOLA, OLOLADE
    Fiscal Discipline (FD) is the ability of government to efficiently maintain smooth and long-term financial operations in relation to total revenue, financial balance, public debt and total spending. The growing fiscal deficit across countries and, the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010 underscored the need for FD. In Nigeria, the growing debt, unmanageable budget deficit, consistent imbalance in expenditure and revenue variance, and unnecessary delay in budget processes have made FD critical. However, little attention has been devoted to the identification of the determinants of FD in Nigeria. This study, therefore, examined the determinants of FD in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. The Common pool resource theory provided the framework for the econometric model in the mould of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin, World Development Indicators, Quality of Governance Basic Data Set, and Approved Annual Budgets. The extent of FD was assessed using four complementary measures: Primary Balance (PB), Debt Sustainability (DS), Expenditure Variance (EV) and Revenue Variance (RV). The examined determinants of FD included spending units, capital inflows, government size, political regime, trade openness and transparency. The time-series properties of these variables were examined. The Bounds test approach and Error Correction Modeling technique were deployed for the long-run and short-run analyses, respectively. All estimates were validated at р≤0.05. The FD models, (except DS) exhibited a long-run path (PB, F-Stat. 29.4; EV, F-Stat.14.6; RV, F-Stat.55.0) in which spending units exerted significant influence on the measures of FD. A percentage increase in spending units led to rise in PB (2.0%, t=4.77) and EV (0.4%, t=2.96) and decline in RV (2.6%, t=5.94). Similarly, a percentage increase in government size also led to rise in PB (23.5%, t=4.84) and EV (22.1%, t=3.61) and a fall in RV (52.7%, t=3.81). Conversely, trade openness reduced the PB (6.9%, t=3.27), while political regime (0.09, t=3.94) indicated that military regimes were more disciplined than democratic regimes. Capital inflows reduced EV (42.2%, t=3.92). The short-run estimates showed that a percentage increase in spending units deteriorated RV (1.6%, t=6.30), and increased the PB (1.3%, t=8.13) and EV (0.4%, t=2.11). In contrast, a percentage increase in capital inflows lowered the PB (26.1%, t=5.57) and EV (33.3%, t=3.39) and increased the RV (37.8%, t=5.99). A percentage increase in transparency lowered PB (0.4%, t=9.54) and EV (0.6%, t=5.14). Fiscal discipline was evidently lacking in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015, as primary balance, debt sustainability, expenditure variance and revenue variance indicated fiscal indiscipline. The indiscipline was essentially determined by spending units, government size, and regime type, as military regime was more discipline than democratic regimes. Therefore, there is the need to ensure fiscal discipline in fiscal operations accordingly.
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    ECONOMIC BURDEN OF MALARIA IN TANZANIA: AN INVESTIGATION OF CHILDREN UNDER FIVE YEARS
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2017-11-22) Chamwali, Lihoya Anthony
    The importance of having good health for both parents and their children cannot be ignored, as it allows households to participate effectively in activities which earn them income. This study analyzes the economic burden of malaria in Tanzania for households with children under five years. Specifically it examines the effect of the presence of the under five malaria admissions on households’ incomes and wages, estimates the effect of the presence of under five malaria admissions on households’ agricultural output and finds out the determinants of under five malaria admissions. The study uses the Tanzania National Panel Survey (TNPS) data set which was conducted in three waves by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The first, second and third waves were conducted in years 2008/9, 2010/11 and 2012/13 respectively. The survey covered more than 3000 households in each wave. But for the purpose of this study, more than 600 households who had under five children and who were interviewed in all the three rounds formed the main sample size of the study. A fixed effect model is used to analyze the effect of the presence of the under five malaria admissions on households’ wages and incomes. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) is used to analyze the effect of the presence of the under five malaria admissions on households’ agricultural output and the panel logit regression model is used to find the determinants of the under five malaria admissions. The results reveal that the presence of the under five children admitted with malaria in a household burdens households as its income and wages are reduced by 12.06 percent and 6.6 percent respectively, while households’ agricultural output was reduced by 18.94 percent in 2008/9 and by 28.94 percent in 2012/13 holding climate related factors constant. The study has also revealed that a large size of the household , age of the household head and sources of drinking water (both well water, river water and piped water) put the under five children at risk of having malaria admissions. The policy implications of the findings are that the government needs to focus on the prevention of malaria through indoor and outdoor spraying in addition to the distribution of free mosquito nets. A malaria free society will allow households to increase hours of work in productive activities and this will increase their incomes. Households will also become food secure if malaria rates are reduced due to effective participation in agricultural activities.Besides, the government needs to ensure that leaking pipes are repaired timely so as to reduce the mosquitoes breeding places, especially ponds of leaked water around homes.
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    EDUCATION, FAMILY FORMATION AND FEMALE LABOUR MARKET PARTICIPATION IN CAMEROON
    (University of Yaoundé II, 2021-01-22) NEMBOT, Adeline MBOUNKA
    The aim of this thesis is to investigate the effect of education on family formation and the ensuing effects on female employment in Cameroon, using individual and household records of the 2011 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). Specifically, the thesis seeks: to examine the influence of education on the timing of first marriage, to assess the effect of education on the timing of first birth, and to explore how transition into marriage and birth modulate the effect of education on female full-time employment in Cameroon. To achieve these objectives, we appeal to theoretical and empirical tools. Becker’s model of time allocation provides the theoretical underpinnings on how with respect to education, a woman chooses between forming a family, working or both. Empirically, use is made of the survival analysis, the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) approach, the Heckman two-step correction for selection bias, the simple and ordered Probit models, and the control function modeling strategy. Results reveal that education delays women’s age at first marriage. Education also induces women to postpone their age at first birth; and these delays increase monotonically with level of education. Yet, only wives with post-primary education postponed their age at first birth compared to their counterparts with no education. In addition, while delaying age at first marriage and age at first birth by a year encourages women to reduce their likelihood of participating in full-time employment, education induces women to increase their probability of participating in full-time work. Yet, transition into first marriage and first birth reduces the marginal efficiency of education on women’s full-time employment, except if they choose to postpone their age at first marriage and age at first birth by up to 11 and 12 years, respectively. These findings have public policy implications. For instance, besides public interventions that encourage the girl child to stay longer in school, policy interventions could equality create an enabling environment that reconciles work and family formation. Such interventions may include the popularization of daycare centers and universal paid maternity leave.
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    Essays on Child Labour and Schooling in Ghana
    (University of Cape Town, 2018-04-21) Ayifah, Rebecca Nana Yaa
    This thesis consists of three papers on child labour and schooling in Ghana. The first paper examines the correlates of child labour and schooling, as well as the trade-off between work and schooling of children aged 5-17 years with the 2013 Ghana Living Standard Survey data. A bivariate probit model is used since the decisions to participate in schooling and in the labour market are interdependent. The results show that there is a gender gap both in child work and schooling. In particular, boys are less likely to work (and more likely to be enrolled in schools) relative to girls. Whereas parent education, household wealth and income of the family are negatively correlated with child work, these factors influence schooling positively. In addition, parents’ employment status, ownership of livestock, distance to school, child wage and schooling expenditure increase the probability of child labour and reduce the likelihood of school enrolment. In terms of the relationship between child labour and schooling, the results show that an additional hour of child labour is associated with 0.15 hour (9 minutes) reduction in daily hours of school attendance; and the effect is bigger for girls relative to boys. Also, one more hour of child labour is associated with an increase in the probability of a child falling behind in grade progression by 1.4 percentage points. The second paper estimates the impact of Ghana’s Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) cash transfer programme on schooling outcomes (enrolment, attendance hours, repetition and test scores) and child labour in farming and non-farm enterprises. Using longitudinal data, the paper employs three different quasi-experimental methods (propensity score matching, difference-in-difference, and difference-in-difference combined with matching). Overall, the results show that the LEAP programme had no effect on school enrolment and test scores, but it increased the weekly hours of class attendance by 5.2 hours and reduced repetition rate by 11 percentage points for children in households that benefited from the programme. In addition, there was heterogeneity in these impacts, with boys benefiting more relative to girls. In terms of child labour, the results show that the programme had no effect on the extensive margin of child labour in farming and non-farm enterprises. However, the LEAP programme reduced the intensity of farm work done by children by as much as 2.6 hours per day. The largest impact of the programme, in terms of reduction in the intensity of child labour in farming, occurred in female-headed and extremely poor households. The last paper investigates the impact of mothers’ autonomy or bargaining power in the household on their children’s schooling and child labour in Ghana. The paper uses a noneconomic measure of women’s autonomy, which is an index constructed from five questions on power relations between men and women. The paper employs both an Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and an Instrumental Variable (IV) approach. Overall, the results suggest that ignoring the endogeneity of mothers’ autonomy underestimates its true impact on schooling and child labour. They also show that an increase in mothers’ autonomy increases school enrolment and hours of class attendance, with girls benefiting more than boys. The paper finds a negative relationship between mothers’ autonomy and both the extensive and intensive margin of child labour. In addition, it demonstrates that improvement in women’s autonomy has bigger impacts on rural children’s welfare relative to urban children.
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    ESSAYS ON DIGITAL FINANCE, FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN WAEMU
    (Université Félix Houphouët, 2021-06-03) SENOU, Melain Modeste
    Financial Inclusion is not an objective per se, but only to the extent that it helps alleviate poverty. This thesis aims then at investigating the mechanisms through which digital finance may solve the multiple financial market imperfections by improving financial Inclusion and alleviate poverty in developing countries. We estimated first a random effect model and a system GMM and found that beyond the specific effects of mobile phone penetration and Internet usage, the joint use of these two technologies is very key to financial inclusion in the WAEMU countries. Secondly, we made a cluster analysis and a logistic regression to investigate respectively the macroeconomic and microeconomic driving factors of mobile money adoption. We found that illiteracy, underemployment as well as the lack of mobile infrastructure are the main macroeconomics bottlenecks for digital finance adoption. In addition, the age, gender, education level, poverty status as well as the ownership of bank account are the main microeconomics driving factors of digital finance adoption in WAEMU. Finally, we estimated the probability of lifting out of poverty in WAEMU with a recursive bivariate probit model and concluded that both mobile led financial inclusion and bank led financial inclusion are essential for sustainable poverty alleviation in WAEMU. The findings from these essays suggest to governments to support both Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) and Financial Institutions to deliver financial services through digital technologies to last miles. This requires then a flexible regulation toward the digital finance business in WAEMU.
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    Essays on Monetary Policy, Institutions and Terms of Trade Shocks in Emerging Market Economies
    (University of Cape Town, 2012-11-06) Hove, Seedwell
    Abstract This thesis focuses on two important features of emerging market economies: institutional weaknesses and the exposure to commodity terms of trade shocks and how they shape the macroeconomic dynamics and the conduct of monetary policy. These issues are discussed in three essays. The first essay empirically evaluates the role of institutional structures in inflation targeting in emerging market economies (EMEs). The second essay theoretically investigates the appropriate monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks using a multi-sector New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Finally, the third essay empirically analyses the .responses of different monetary policy regimes to commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies. The first essay investigates whether monetary, fiscal and financial institutional structures really matter for the achievement of inflation targets in emerging market economies. Particular emphasis is placed on the extent to which inflation deviations from target bands are affected by central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial sector development. The study contnoutes to the literature by taking stock of the intrinsic role played by institutional structures in the achievement of inflation targets since the adoption of inflation targeting in EMEs. Using the panel ordered logit model, the analysis shows that improvement in central bank independence, fiscal discipline and financial systems reduces the probability of inflation target misses. Precisely, countries with more independent central banks tend to achieve inflation targets more frequently. A one percent increase in central bank independence increases the probability of achieving the target band by 0.16%, while reducing the probability of inflation being above the target band by 0.11%. Moreover, countries with weak fiscal institutions and less developed financial systems have a higher probability of missing their inflation targets. The improvement in institutional structures also enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy. The thesis also provides evidence that other macroeconomic and structural variables such as exchange rate gap, output gapt inflation target horizon and level of openness explain inflation target misses. The results suggest that there is need to continue to reform institutional structures in order to achieve sustainable price stability.
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    EXCHANGE RATE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ADJUSTMENT IN SIERRA LEONE, 1970-2005
    (University of Ibadan, 2008-08-22) KORSU, ROBERT DAUDA,
    In spite of series of exchange rate adjustments in the 1980s and the adoption of the managed floating exchange rate regime in 1990, Sierra Leone still experiences poor external sector performance. The nominal exchange rate has been depreciating since the 1980s without reflection on the real exchange rate and the balance of payments. Both the theoretical and empirical literature on the effects of the nominal exchange rate on the real exchange rate and, hence, the balance of payments, are inconclusive. Previous studies on Sierra Leone focused on the elasticity approach, ignoring the wide macroeconomic implications of changes in the exchange rate. This study therefore examined the role of the exchange rate in balance of payments adjustment in Sierra Leone. Based on the absorption approach to the balance of payments, a small open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporated the linkages among fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies, and the balance of payments was constructed using annual data from 1970 to 2005. The empirical analysis was based on estimating the macroeconomic model using the three stage least squares, and counterfactual policy simulations. Using Ordinary Least Squares with moving average errors, an equilibrium real exchange rate model which was derived from the basic tradable and non-tradable goods framework was also estimated. Although increase in the nominal exchange rate was inflationary, it increased the real exchange rate, non-mineral export, aggregate export, output, absorption and import. Moreover, it decreased the trade balance and increased the overall balance of payments. The correlation coefficients between actual and simulated series ranged from 0.5 to 0.94, while the covariance proportions of the Theil’s inequality coefficients ranged from 0.47 to 0.98. An 85 % increase in the nominal exchange rate increased the price level by 3.9 %, real exchange rate by 6.9 %, non mineral export by 117.1% and the balance of payments by 22.6% while it decreased the trade balance by 48.4%. Loose fiscal and monetary policies and trade restrictions reduced the potency of nominal exchange rate in attaining real exchange rate depreciation and improvement in the balance of payments of Sierra Leone. The estimated equilibrium real exchange rate model showed that an increase in investment appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate, implying that investment took place more in the non-tradable goods sector than the tradable goods sector of Sierra Leone. Also, deterioration in-terms-of trade and trade restrictions appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate. Nominal exchange rate depreciation leads to depreciation of the real exchange rate, and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies appreciate the real exchange rate. Although nominal exchange rate depreciation increases export and hence income, it raises import and therefore deteriorates the trade balance. It is, therefore, recommended that fiscal and monetary policies be coordinated such that tight monetary policy is given priority, as this enhances the benefit of nominal exchange rate depreciation. Also, bolstering domestic capacity for the production of import-competing goods is essential.
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    EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND FIRM-LEVEL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IN NIGERIA
    (University of Ibadan, 2015-07-06) OLANIPEKUN, DAYO BENEDICT
    Exchange rate volatility (the risk associated with unexpected movements in exchange rate) adversely affects economic activities, both at the micro and macro levels, because it increases uncertainty. Between 1990 and 2012, Nigeria’s exchange rate volatility ranged from 0.1% to 38.8%, while the average annual growth of exports of manufacturing firms declined from 12.7% to -27.4%. Previous studies generally focused on the effects of exchange rate volatility on macroeconomic variables with little attention on firm-level activities. This study, therefore, examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on firmlevel investment, output and export in Nigeria. Three semi-log equations (investment, output and export), based on the theory of the firm, were estimated. Data were collected on 50 manufacturing firms and were classified into oil and gas, food products, beverages, conglomerates, healthcare, agricultural, household durables, industrial goods, printing and publishing, automobile and tyres sub-sectors. The criteria for sample selection were based on data availability and representativeness of the various sub-sectors. Firm-level data were obtained from the firms’ Annual Reports and Financial Statements and macroeconomic data were collected from International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics Year Book. Exchange rate volatility was computed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckedacity (GARCH) model. The one-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator was used to determine the effects of exchange rate volatility on firm-level investment, output and export, while the Hansen, Sargan and Breusch-Godfrey diagnostic tests were carried out to establish the robustness of the parameter estimates. Statistical significance was determined at the 5% level. Exchange rate volatility had a negative impact on firm-level investment, output and export, with disparities across sub-sectors. A percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ investment by 0.4% and 0.7% in the agricultural and household durable subsectors, respectively. The relatively low reduction of investment in agriculture was attributed to limited imported inputs. On output, a percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ output in the food products, beverages, healthcare, and automobile and tyres sub-sectors by 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.8% and 0.01%, respectively. The effect of exchange rate volatility was lower on firms’ output in the automobile and tyres sub-sector as the firms in the sub-sector earned foreign exchange and were able to hedge against the risk of exchange rate volatility. A percentage increase in exchange rate volatility reduced firms’ export in the food products, beverages and healthcare sub-sectors by 1.1%, 3.1% and 4.0%, in that order. These relatively high percentages suggested that exports by firms in the subsectors would decline significantly in the event of exchange rate volatility. All these results showed that the sampled firms were heavily dependent on external trade which was influenced by exchange rate volatility. Exchange rate volatility led to a decline in firm-level investment, output and export in Nigeria. Effective management of exchange rate by the monetary authority is desirable in order to moderate the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on firm-level economic activities
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    EXCHANGE RATE, OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA (1970-2007)
    (University of Ibadan, 2010-09-06) JAMEELAH, OMOLARA YAQUB
    Exchange rate policy is central to improving the economic performance of a nation. Over the years, Nigeria adopted both the fixed and managed float exchange rate systems in her attempt at attaining a realistic exchange rate. This is to ensure efficient allocation of foreign exchange resources that may pave way for a non-inflationary growth and a well diversified economy. However, the attainment of these goals remained elusive. Earlier studies on the effects of exchange rate on the Nigerian economy ignored differences in sectoral output responses to changes in exchange rate and economic agents’ expectations. This study, therefore, investigated the effects of anticipated and unanticipated changes in exchange rate on aggregate and sectoral output, and inflationary trends in Nigeria between 1970 and 2007. A macroeconometric model, based on a modified investment-saving and the liquiditymoney supply framework, was employed using secondary data, to capture the direct and indirect relationships between exchange rate movements, output and inflation. Exchange rate was split into anticipated and unanticipated components using the Autoregressive Moving Average method. The behavioural equations were estimated with the three-stage-least-squares technique and a general-to-specific estimation methodology was employed to ensure that important information was not left out. Statistical tests were used to confirm the goodness of fit of the estimated equations. The Theil’s inequality coefficients and the root mean squared errors were used to gauge the model’s efficiency and tracking ability. Their parameter values were within acceptable range. The model was then used to carry out ex post simulations of the effects of anticipated and unanticipated exchange rate depreciation on output and inflation. Some differences in sectoral output responses to anticipated and unanticipated depreciation were observed. The coefficients of anticipated exchange rate in the equations for aggregate output, agriculture, manufacturing, and output of services were -0.05, -0.15, -0.01, and 0.09, respectively. All of these were statistically significant at 5.00%, implying that anticipated depreciation reduced aggregate output and outputs of agricultural and manufacturing sectors, while it increased services sector’s output. Unanticipated exchange rate had insignificant negative effects on aggregate and sectoral outputs, except for manufacturing where the effect was positive. Anticipated depreciation had a strong inflationary effect with a significant coefficient of 0.28, while the impact of unanticipated exchange rate on inflation was negligible. Simulation results indicated that, on the average, a 15.00% anticipated depreciation would reduce aggregate output by 2.12% and agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors’ outputs by 9.23%, 2.00%, and 5.32% respectively; while it would raise inflation by 17.17%. Anticipated real exchange rate depreciation had significant contractionary effects on aggregate and sectoral outputs (except for the services sector) and promoted inflation, while unanticipated depreciation had negligible effects. This implied that policy neutrality hypothesis may not hold for the Nigerian environment and, more importantly, that existing structures could not support an expansionary argument for exchange rate depreciation during the period of study.
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    EXTERNAL DEBT, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA
    (UNIVERSITY OF BENIN, 2012-07-01) Tuffour, Joseph Kwadwo
    The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the influence of external debt on economic growth and investment in Ghana. The specific objectives are to determine the: impact of external debt on GDP growth, the threshold level at which external debt becomes burdensome and the possible growth loss of exceeding external debt threshold and lastly to determine whether or not external debt crowds out investment. A macroeconomic framework of economic growth was developed with linkages to investment and external debt. This served as the methodological basis. The econometric model specifications entail equations explaining output and investment. The research used time series data over the period 1970 – 2009. Non-linear Least Squares and Two Stage Least Square estimation methods were used. In addition, summary statistics and graphical approaches were applied. A non-linear relationship between external debt and output growth was established. The external debt threshold was estimated to be 46.2 percent, supporting the external debt Laffer curve hypothesis. The positive contribution of external debt (at lower levels up to the threshold) supports the notion that, a certain minimum requirement of external debt is necessary to support the growth process. On the other hand, beyond the threshold level of external debt accumulation, the impact of external debt on economic growth begins to fall. The threshold level suggests that, Ghana encounters growth rate problems at a moderate external debt to GDP ratio. The research also reveals a cumulative economic growth loss of 12.28 percentage points (indicating the growth loss when the estimated external debt threshold is exceeded). This leads to an annual average growth loss of 0.31 percentage points, showing how high growth would have been if the external debt to GDP ratio had stayed at 46.2 percent. The research further shows that, beyond the threshold level, the positive impact of foreign debt on growth would begin to fall until the external debt to GDP ratio reaches 92 percent. Any foreign debt acquired further than the 92 percent of GDP would actually reduce output growth. In addition, the research unravels the existence of the debt overhang problem. This occurs in two ways through: crowding out effect on private investment, constraining public sector liquidity as well as discouraging private investment. Also, it was noted that, the accelerator effect applies in Ghana for the study period.
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    FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM LISTED MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN KENYA
    (University Of Nairobi, 2018-11) Kirui, Benard Kipyegon
    Evidence of financial constraints and its effects on a firm’s real decision in countries with advanced capital markets implies that the situation might be severe in countries with less developed capital markets. Despite this possibility, there is a dearth of evidence on the severity of financial constraints and its effects in Kenya. Against this backdrop, this study examined the firm capital structure and investment and analysed the role of financial constraints in this context in Kenya. To this end, three specific objectives were addressed, each by an essay, using data from all manufacturing firms that were listed on Nairobi Securities Exchange between 1999 and 2016. The data was collected from published annual financial statements that companies filed at the Capital Market Authority. The first essay analysed the determinants of financial constraints in Kenya. Size-age the measure was found to perform better than measures of financial constraints based on endogenous switching regression and has high correlation with experienced financial constraints. Thus, the size and age of the firms are the main determinants of financial constraints in Kenya. The endogenous switching regression based classifications were found to be sensitive to the choice of the starting values, and the specification of the outcome equation and the selection equation. They were inefficient and produced inconsistent sub-samples. About 67 per cent of the firm-years in the manufacturing sector suffers from financial constraints. The second essay investigated the effects of financial constraints on firm capital structure. The goal of this essay was implemented in two ways. First, a financial constraints dummy variable has interacted with the determinants of capital structure. Second, an incremental F 􀀀test was used to test for the differences in the financing behaviour across financial constraint regimes. Pecking order theory does not hold, however, financing behaviour varies across financial constraint regimes. The third essay investigated the effects of financial constraints on firm investment. The study used investment Euler equation and Tobin Q to examine whether constrained and unconstrained firms invested differently, in terms of what drives investment. Secondly, real exchange rate shock was used to analyse firm’s investment response to shock in the presence of financial constraints. The empirical strategy was to compare investment rate immediately before and after the shock for firms under different degrees of financial constraints. Financial constraints negatively affect investment and firm’s response to shock depends on financial constraint status. Overall, financial constraints affect young and small firms causing them/the firms to forego external capital, underinvest, and alter their response to a positive shock. Policy should aim at easing constraints on access to capital by broadening the scope of assets that can be pledged as collateral and instituting policies to reduce costs associated with verification of private information, and contract enforcement including legal charge such as by the creation of a central depository for collateral. Furthermore, to minimize policy related distortions, financial constraints should be taken into consideration in designing the level of interventions.
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    FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
    (University of Benin, 2015-11-06) OGBEIDE, FRANK IYEKORETIN
    Financial sector reform was part of the structural adjustment programme (SAP) adopted in the early 1980s by countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with the aim of promoting financial development and macroeconomic performance. Despite this, financial systems have only responded marginally in SSA, raising concerns on the significance of financial reforms in improving financial development, and its transmission effect on economic performance. Besides, empirical evidence explaining the effects of financial reforms on financial development and economic performance appear mixed. Thus, this study investigates the impact of financial reform on financial development, using both traditional panel and the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator. Further, the study examines the effect of financial reform on economic performance, and lastly, test for causality among financial reform, financial development and economic performance using Multivariate Vector Autoregressive (MVAR) model. The data for the study were sourced from the 2013 World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a sample of 14 SSA countries for the period 1980 to 2012. The findings from the study indicate that policies of financial reform (especially the reform of domestic banking sector) have led to financial development in the overall SSA countries. Furthermore, results show that financial reform positively and significantly support growth in real output, domestic investment, human development, but, however, reduces the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in the region. These results were significantly different using income and stock market effects, confirming their importance in explaining the effectiveness of financial reform on financial development and economic performance in the continent. Specifically, financial reform has a negative, but significant effect on financial development in low income economies, whereas the impact was positive and significant in countries classified as lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income economies. Financial reform significantly promote growth in real per capita GDP in both low-income and lower-middle-income economies (same with results obtained for the overall sample) but adversely affect per capita income growth in upper-middle-income countries. Results also show that financial reform has a positive effect on human development, irrespective of income classification of sampled countries. However, financial reform generates economic instability in both lower-middle-income and upper-middle income countries, but was found to restrain the occurrence of macroeconomic uncertainties in low-income economies. The results show that the presence of domestic stock market (even in country-specific analysis using data from Nigeria and South Africa) improves the positive transmission effect of financial reform across all performance metrics, but raises the possibility of occurrence of macroeconomic instability in the region. From the causality test analysis, financial reform causes financial development in about 36% of the entire sample countries, while reverse causality holds in 14% of the countries, and another 14% showing evidence of feedback effects between financial reform and financial development. In addition, about 36% of the countries studied show that financial reform causes growth in per capita income, 7.0% revealed that per capita income growth intensifies the need for financial reforms, while 57.0% showed no clear flow of causality. Also, the causality test result shows financial reform lead to human development in over a third of countries covered, while no causation was observed in 57% of the entire sample. Lastly, 21.3% of countries showed that financial liberalisation lead directly to macroeconomic instability, 14.3% shows reversed causality, whereas the remaining 64.3% of sampled countries did not indicate any form of causality. This study recommends that policy makers in SSA should simultaneously consider the financial and real sectors as interdependent. Governments of countries in SSA should make a conscious effort to reduce or eliminate the negative effects of inflation and natural resource dependence on domestic financial development, and other economic performance fundamentals. Improving access to more diversified financial services/products induced by policies of financial reform would support inclusive growth that reduces poverty and boost human development. Lastly, monetary authorities in the region should promote a prudential framework in line with the unique economic structures of their economy and ensure that policies of financial liberalisation are cautiously implemented in a stable economy with appropriate institutional framework to avoid undesirable outcome.
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    FISCAL ADJUSTMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION IN TANZANIA (1967-2011)
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2015-10-22) Mtui, John Michael
    The study analyses the effect of fiscal adjustment in promoting economic growth and the fight against inflation in Tanzania from 1967 to 2011. The study is underpinned by both descriptive and econometric analyses based on a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag error correction model. The study findings confirm that: public investment spending, public consumption spending, real exchange rate depreciation, private investments are growth enhancing. Economic and fiscal reforms of the mid 1980s and 1990s, respectively, augment economic growth in the long-run. Only lagged GDP, public consumption spending, real exchange rate and trade openness have significant effects on economic growth in the short-run. The long-run estimates of the inflation model indicate real GDP growth and nominal exchange rate have impact on inflation. Budget deficit is significant but seem to have a negative effect on price development. Thus, abstinence from cutting public investment spending and curtailing non-productive expenditures should be observed. Such measures as the adoption of Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as a planning and strategy for reducing wasteful expenditure and the expenditure reprioritization and efficiency instituted through NSGRP should be sustained. Attainment of price stability in Tanzania hinges on stable economic growth and exchange rate. This requires a credible and sustained fiscal policy, supported by an appropriate exchange rate and monetary policies. Rationalization of public spending and expenditure efficiency are critical. To sustain GDP growth and thus price stability, there is a need to improve productivity.
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    FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY IN CAMEROON: determinants, transmission and consequences
    (Université de Yaoundé II, 2018-09-10) KANE, Gilles Quentin
    This thesis analyzes food price volatility in Cameroon. First, we examine the determinants of food price volatility in Cameroon. Second, we analyse the transmission of food price volatility in Cameroonian markets. Third, we analyse the supply response to price and volatility for some major staple crops grown by agricultural households in Cameroon. Fourth, we analyse the welfare effects of food price volatility on Cameroonian households. Using diverse econometric methods, results show that food price volatility in Cameroon is determined by the volatility of the price of other local agricultural crops, and not by factors coming from international markets such as volatility of crude oil price and price volatility of import of cereals. This result is confirmed in the case of rice, where there is no price volatility transmission between the world market and Cameroonian markets. Furthermore, results also indicate that producers respond to price volatility by principally increasing their surface area for cultivation and reducing investment in agricultural inputs to improve yield. Finally, poor households are the most affected by food price volatility, with welfare losses from food price volatility depending on the extent of the price hikes. Two main policy lessons are drawn from this thesis. Firstly, it may be important to implement more specific development projects based on commodities such as local cereals, roots and tubers and find ways to improve the efficiency of existing development programs in the agricultural sector. Secondly, knowledge capacity on how household structure and spatial repartitioning of households are affected by changes in food prices, and the responsiveness, can be necessary to implement efficient policies to fight against hunger and poverty