2. Research Papers

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    An empirical evaluation of trade potential in the economic community of West African States
    (The African Economic Research Consortium, 1988-11) Ogunkola, Olawale E.
    Intra-ECOWAS trade has remained very low despite the integration efforts in the subregion in the past two decades. While noting that these efforts have not progressed as scheduled, this study investigates what the West African countries stand to gain by way of increases in intra-regional trade flows if all trade barriers are removed. The study uses a gravity model whose results suggest that there is trade potential in the subregion.
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    The real exchange rate and Ghana's agricultural exports
    (African Economic Research consortium, 1992-10-07) Fosu, K. Yerfi
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    Growth and Foreign debt the Ethiopian Experience : 1964- 1986
    (AERC, 1992-11) Befekadu Degefe
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    Links between the informal and formal /semi - formal financial sectors in Malawi
    (AERC, 1992-11-01) Chipeta C; M. L. C Mkandawire
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    Small and medium-scale enterprises in Nigeria: their characteristics, problems and sources of finance
    (African Economic Research consortium, 1992-12-05) Ekpenyong, David B.; Nyong, M.O.
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    Scope, structure and policy implications of informal financial markets in Tanzania
    (AERC, 1993-04-02) M. HYUHA; M. 0. NDANSHAU; J. P. KIPOKOLA
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    European economic integration and the Franc Zone: The future of the CFA franc after 1996
    (AERC, 1993-07-02) Allechi M"bet; Amlan Madeleinen Niamkey
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    The determinants of fiscal deficit and fiscal adjustment in Cote D'IVoire
    (AERC, 1993-07-27) Oussou, Kouassy; Bouabre, Bohourn
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    Revenue productivity implications of tax reform in Tanzania
    (AERC, 1993-09) Osoro, Nehemiah E.
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    Inflationary trends and control in Ghana
    (AERC, 1993-09) Sowa, Nii K; Kwakye, John
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    Macroeconomic constraints and medium-term growth in Kenya: a three-gap analysis
    (AERC, 1994-05) Mwega, F. M.; Mwangi, Njuguna; -Ochilo, F. Otewe
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    TRADE, PAYMENTS LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN GHANA
    (AERC, 1994-11) JEBUNI, C. D.; ODURO, A. D.; TUTU, K. A.
    Not available
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    MONETARY HARMONIZATION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
    (AERC, 1994-11) Chipeta, C; Mkandawire, M. L. C
    At its 1991 Summit held in Arusha, Tanzania, the authority of SADC decided that the organisation should embark on macroeconomic and sectoral policy planning and coordination. As pointed out by the organisation's Executive Secretary in January 1992, during the Annual Consultative meeting held in Maputo, Mozambique, macroeconomic policy planning and coordination will include the creation of a monetary union. All member states of SADC, except Botswana, are also members of the Preferential Trade Area of Eastern and Southern Africa (PTA). According to its Treaty, the aim of the PTA is to promote cooperation and development in all fields of economic activity, including monetary affairs. Monetary cooperation has been interpreted to include establishing a common monetary area with a greater measure of monetary stability in order to facilitate economic integration. To this end, the authority of the PTA decided in 1990 that the organisation should work towards the establishment of a single currency by the year 2000. Southern Africa already has one monetary harmonization scheme — the Common Currency Area covering South Africa, Lesotho, Namibia and Swaziland. Mozambique has openly expressed interest in joining this currency area. Other countries would like to see the rand become the common currency of Southern Africa.
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    EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION, BUDGET DEFICIT AND INFLATION - THE NIGERIAN EXPERIENCE
    (AERC, 1994-11) EGWAIKHIDE, FESTUS 0.; CHETE, LOUIS N.; FALOKUN, GABRIEL 0.
    not available
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    CONSTRAINTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND DIVERSIFICATION OF NONTRADITIONAL EXPORTS IN UGANDA, 1981-90
    (AERC, 1994-11) SSEMOGERERE, G. N.; KASEKENDE, L. A.
    The foreign exchange cash-flow of Uganda has reached a crisis. Expenditure requiring foreign exchange is on the increase as the economy grows, while foreign exchange receipts have dwindled over the past four years from about US$400 million to a cash flow position of about US$100 million. This study investigates the constraints which prevent exports receipts from increasing in response to the exchange rate reforms since 1981. The first conclusion drawn from this study is that exchange rate policies, unless pursued within a consistent macroeconomic stabilization framework, cannot enlist a significant response from exports producers. Second, it is clear that other constraints encompassing institutional reforms and infrastructural reconstruction must also be addressed before a the country can develop a dynamic comparative advantage.
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    INDICES OF EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ETHIOPIA, KENYA AND THE SUDAN
    (AERC, 1994-11) KIDANE, ASMEROM
    The paper considers the various indices of effective exchange rate that are applied in many countries to measure the overvaluation or undervaluation of a particular currency compared to the currency of major trading countries. First the conceptual issues of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is considered. In general there are three types of nominal effective exchange rates namely the export weighted, import weighted and trade weighted rates. Other indices may also be developed on the basis of the three indices. The major drawback with these rates is that they do not isolate the effect of overvaluation from possible inflationary differentials between reporting countries and major trading partners. In order to isolate the pure exchange rate effect, the nominal effective exchange rate should be deflated by the ratio of the inflation rate of a reporting country to that of a partner country. This would in turn give us the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). There are two problems associated with the conversion of NEER to REER. First, there is an issue of what type of price index to use. There are several indices including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the wholesale price index (WPI), as well as other related indices. Second, even if a particular index is chosen, that index may not be measured in a similar manner between the two countries. If the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is measured with minimal error then such an index may be a measure of changes in the price of tradables compared to non-tradables. In other words, the REER is akin to the Real Exchange Rate (RER).
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    SHORT-RUN MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF BANK LENDING RATES IN NIGERIA, 1987-91: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
    (AERC, 1995-03) AJAKAIYE, D. OLU
    In this study, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed for Nigeria and applied in simulating the short-run macroeconomic effects of the rising bank lending rates experienced during the period of financial liberalization, i.e., 1987-1991, incorporating the confounding effects of the exchange rate depreciation that also occurred during this period. In order to assess the severity of the effects of the rising bank lending rates, the model was simulated while controlling for the exchange rate effects. Analysis of the results shows that the rising bank lending rate along with the exchange rate depreciation had deleterious effects on inflation, output, income, consumer demand and government fiscal posture. It was also found that while the rising bank lending rate without the confounding effects of exchange rate depreciation had deleterious effects on these macroeconomic aggregates, the effects were less severe. Thus, the exchange rate depreciation only aggravated the adverse effects of the bank lending rate during this period. These findings provide a reasonable basis for suggesting that the monetary authorities should fix the spread between the maximum lending rate and the interest rate on savings deposits at the 3.5% rate that prevailed at the beginning of the financial sector liberalization in 1987. The minimum rediscount rate (MRR) should also be reduced to its 1987 level of 12.8% in order to induce the banks to lower interest rates generally. Moreover, the role of banks in foreign exchange management should be limited to that of intermediation between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the end-users. The end-users would then bid directly in the foreign exchange market, a situation that should enhance the potency of appropriate monetary and fiscal policies as instruments for stabilizing the exchange rate of the naira.