Assessing the Impact of Input Subsidies on Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Applied Political Economy Analysis
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Date
2026
Authors
Joseph Manzvera
Mark Manyanga
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AERC
Abstract
The increasing policy interests and vibrant scholarly debate surrounding the
impact of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa have inspired a
growing literature on how input subsidies affect agricultural productivity. The
available empirical evidence provides contrasting views, with one school of
thought supporting input subsidies as agricultural productivity catalysts, while
another school of thought views input subsidies as agricultural policies that
failed to stimulate productivity but instead imposed unsustainable pressure on
national fiscal resources. Therefore, understanding the extent to which input
subsidies influence agricultural productivity, the prevailing effect, and the
drivers behind one effect or the other is a pressing matter to guide policy and
practice. As such, this study systematically reviewed existing literature on the
subject matter and synthesized the evidence through an applied political
economy analysis lens. Concurrently, a meta-analysis was conducted to
disentangle the potential determinants of heterogeneity in estimates of the
impact of input subsidy programs across different countries. The findings
showed that input subsidy programs contributed to boosting agricultural
productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa in general. The average pooled effect size of
input subsidies on crop value is US$128/ha (p<0.01). However, there exists a
significant heterogeneity in the effect of input subsidy programs from one study
to the other (Ι 2 = 100%). This underscored the role played by the prevailing
political economy landscape and other subsidy-specific characteristics on the
effectiveness of input subsidy programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Input subsidy
programs providing input packages with both fertilizer and improved seeds, as
well as the use of a voucher system, enhance the effectiveness of input
subsidies. The incidences of political patronage in subsidized input
distribution, on the other hand, undermine the effectiveness of input subsidies.
Contingent upon these findings, it is therefore proposed that input subsidy
packages should include both fertilizer and improved seeds rather than
fertilizer alone. There is also a need to deliberately incorporate legume crops,
both from crop diversity and soil fertility points of view. The use of a voucher
system is also encouraged to strengthen transparency and increase logistics
efficiency and recipient targeting, while also permitting the timely delivery of
subsidized inputs to farmers. To curb political patronage, it is suggested that
farmer production return forms be used in input subsidy targeting to identify
productive (but resource-constrained) farmers and, as a result, remove the
involvement of public officials.