Development Economics
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Recent Submissions
Now showing 1 - 5 of 49
- PublicationOver-Indebtedness: measurement, determinants and effect on living standards(AERC, 2025) Ewusie, Ewura-Adwoa; Annim, Samuel KobinaThis study investigates the extent to which debt repayments pose a burden for household borrowers. We question the use of arbitrary thresholds to determine the over-indebtedness status of a household and introduce a new ‘opportunity cost approach’ to provide the first objective measures of the incidence and severity of over-indebtedness in Ghana from the client’s perspective. Using two waves of nationally representative survey data, we employ maximum likelihood and instrumental variable estimation techniques to determine the influence of loan amount and loan use on the probability and intensity of over-indebtedness and examine the effect of over-indebtedness on households’ living standards. The findings suggest that 41 per cent of household borrowers are over-indebted, and 23 per cent endure severe over-indebtedness by sacrificing food expenditures. An increase in the loan size and unproductive loan use strongly increases the probability of over-indebtedness. Other influential factors include rural residence, low education, female-headed households and insurance. In addition to small loan sizes and unproductive loan use, the risk of severe over-indebtedness is associated with low education, female-headed households, rural residence and informal employment. Over-indebtedness also reduces household living standards by 24 per cent. This research provides crucial information to aid policy decisions on households’ vulnerability due to sacrifices for debt repayment. Such sacrifices could ultimately affect future poverty levels and the attainment of the sustainable development goal to eradicate extreme poverty by the year 2030.
- PublicationAssociation between malaria prophylaxis stock-outs, and birth and maternal outcomes in Zimbabwe(AERC, 2025) Chari, AbigailApproximately three hundred thousand mothers and sixty-seven percent of children die from preventable and treatable diseases globally despite rapid developments in medicines over the years. Pregnant women, neonates and children under five are particularly vulnerable to malaria and bear the burden of malaria infections. Understanding the preventive efforts against malaria is therefore crucial. This paper investigates the association between malaria prophylaxis stock-outs and birth and maternal health outcomes in Zimbabwe. Combining the administrative data on stock-outs of malaria prophylaxis and 2015 nationally representative Demographic Health Survey data, we examine malaria prophylaxis stock-outs and birth and maternal health outcomes. Malaria prophylaxis stock-outs are prevalent and increasing over time in Zimbabwe. We also note regional disparities in malaria prophylaxis stock-outs, where stock-outs are more prevalent in some districts than others. Using pooled OLS, malaria prophylaxis stock-outs are significantly associated with birth weight. Drug stock-outs are, therefore, associated with compromised birth health outcomes while significantly associated with only haemoglobin levels for urban women. Malaria prophylaxis stock-outs significantly push neonates with average birth weights towards the lower end of normal birth weight, hence increasing developmental disabilities in these neonates. In addition, drug stock-outs are insignificantly associated with childunderweight, stunting and wasting. We recommend that policymakers invest in pharmaceutical information systems and stock ordering systems to prioritise the prevention of malaria and improve maternal and birth outcomes as proposed by the Sustainable Development Goals. This improves drug availability in areas where they are most needed.
- PublicationThe impact of financial development on the effectiveness of monetary policy in South Africa(AERC, 2025) Ndzinisa, PatrickThe study examines how financial development affects the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing output and inflation in South Africa, through its interaction with the repo rate. Monetary policy effectiveness in this relationship is measured by the responsiveness of output and inflation to an interaction-term between a financial development indicator and the repo rate.This is carried out by estimating an output and inflation equations incorporating the interaction-term as an explanatory variable in each of theoutput and inflation equations. If the coefficient of the interaction-terms is negative and significant it implies that the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing output and inflation is enhanced. On the other hand, a positive and significant coefficient of the interaction-terms means that the interaction of the financial development with the repo rate dampens monetary policy effectiveness in influencing output and inflation. Considering the adoption of an Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) monetary policy framework in 2000, the study further examines how the regime shift has affected the effectiveness of monetary policy in South Africa. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyse the data for long-run co integration and an Error Correction Model (ECM) to test for a short-run relationship. Additionally, the study uses a structural VAR to assess how long it takes for the interaction-terms to have full impact on output and inflation. The study concludes that the effect of monetary policy on output and inflation is enhanced through the interaction of the bank-based financial development indicator with the repo rate in South Africa. It also concludes that it takes about three quarters and four quarters for the bank-based interaction-term to have full impact on output and inflation respectively, which is quicker than it takes for the repo rate individually to have full impact on these variables. The study also finds that after the adoption of the ITF, the repo rate managed to restrain inflation to be within the targeted band at the expense of output. The study recommends that the South African Reserve Rank (SARB) should consider the bank-based financial development indicator when formulating its monetary policy.
- PublicationMultinational Enterprises and Quality of Jobs In Cameroon: Does The Mode Of Entry Matter?(AERC, 2025) Njikam, Ousmanou; Elomo, Thérèse ZogoWe investigate whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) create high quality jobs than domestic firms in least-developed countries. We argue that the quality of jobs offered by MNEs may differ depending on their two alternative entry modes, that is, greenfields (GRFs) versus joint ventures (JVs). Using 2005-2017 firm-level Cameroonian data, we find that relative to local firms, MNEs offer more secure jobs through lower speeds and greater half-lives of employment adjustment as well as lower elasticity of employment, and they also offer high-wage jobs. GRFs and JVs also offer more secure jobs than local firms, but through different mechanisms, i.e., employment adjustment processes for the former and wage elasticity for the latter, and their generous wage policies differ across skill groups and occupations. In contrast, skill-intensive MNEs and namely GRFs employ less unskilled workers while skill-intensive JVs enhance managerial and technical occupations. We also find that capital-intensive JVs have a significantly positive impact on both non-production and production employment and generate less jobs in managerial and technical occupations. These results hold for the intensity of foreign ownership and firm exit.
- PublicationImplications of Financial Inclusion for Poverty in Cameroon: A Gendered Analysis(AERC, 2025) Akem, Fiennasah Annif’Using the FinScope Consumer survey, the study examines the implications of financial inclusion for poverty in Cameroon. Specifically, assessed the impact of financial inclusion on overall welfare and by gender. In order to account for the endogenous selection bias resulting from unobserved confounders and for structural differences between users and non-users of financial services in terms of welfare generating function, we employ the endogenous switching regression. The probit results indicate that men have a higher probability of being financially included compared to women. We further observe that financially included individuals are expected to make welfare gains of about XAF 14,544 per month. Results equally show that the impact of financial inclusion is higher among men compared to women. These results underscore the need for targeted policies to address gender disparities in access to financial services, implementing policies that promote equal opportunities for men and women in the financial landscape is essential for fostering sustainable economic development and reducing poverty in Cameroon.