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A Lifeless Help for the South Africans in Crisis
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-07) Omotayo, Abiodun Olusola; Ogunniyi, Adebayo Isaiah
COVID-19 has highlighted the critical role of adequate investments in the public health systems and comprehensive social protection programmes. Many South Africans suffer from a poor quality of life. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the crisis, increased by the weak and poorly implemented social protection programs offered by the government. Hence, the central contention here was that poor health and income is disproportionately borne by the poor in South Africa and that such income related health inequalities appear to have become substantially more pronounced in the COVID-19 era relative to the pre-COVID-19 period. Despite the existence of the hypothesis of inverse relationship between the injection of the South Africa Social Security Grant (SASSG) on poverty status and income-related health inequality in some instances, we dwelled on the positive relationship between these variables. Therefore, we hypothesized that the economic dislocation caused by the COVID-19 disproportionately affects the South African poor.
A Poor Man’s Portfolio?
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-08) Mbara, Gilbert
Over the 10-year period between 2005 and 2015, Kenya experienced a significant decrease in both wealth and income inequality. This decline in inequality has been characterized by a fall in both the income and wealth shares of the POLICY BRIEF A Poor Man’s Portfolio? Gilbert Mbara July 2023 / No.GPIR-PB-CC003 richest members of the population, as well as modest gains for the poorest. This is contrary to what has been observed in many advanced countries where inequality has been on the rise. To understand why the Kenyan experience has been different, we investigate macroeconomic variables linked to top-end income and wealth inequality.
Addressing the Challenges of Sustainable Electrification in Africa through Comprehensive Impact Evaluations
(2021-09) Muchapondwa, Edwin; Jeuland, Marc; Shimeles, Abebe
Access to electricity leads to overall economic growth through improved agricultural and firm productivity, public service delivery, and enhanced household investment in human capital, net income, and general quality of life. Yet more than 540 million people in Africa still lack electricity today, and many more suffer from unreliable power supply. The considerable untapped renewable energy potential, and the associated rapid reductions in cost, make sustainable and decentralized electricity service a promising option for the continent, for transforming these deficits into opportunities. However, knowledge on how to finance and implement new models of electrification remains limited, because the results from prior impact evaluations are inconclusive and do not cover all relevant interventions or dimensions. Following a review of policy and research issues, we propose that five essential principles should guide future research efforts in this domain: (i) use of mixed/multi methods that adequately cover the varied implications of electricity access, (ii) choice of econometric methods that provide more credible estimates of impacts, (iii) use and combinations of more informative treatment data, (iv) careful theorizing and consideration of the potential for heterogeneous treatment effects, and (v) accounting for effects from treatments of different magnitudes. We demonstrate the last three of these with an illustrative application of the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework data for Kenya. New insights emerge as research moves from a focus on average treatment effects to heterogeneous and multi-valued treatment effects. Notably, the impacts of electrification may depend on the extent to which households and other economic agents can make complementary investments to benefit from an electricity connection. Thus, electrification may need to be combined with complementary programmes, for example, those that make appliances more accessible and affordable. A greater focus on holistic impact evaluation approaches is needed to make economic research on sustainable electrification more informative and policy-relevant.
Addressing the Drivers of Food Security in Zambia During the COVID-19 Pandemic
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-09) Bwalya, Richard; Chitalu, M. Chama-Chiliba
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been growing concerns about the impact of the pandemic on household food security (Nguyen et al., 2021; Cable et al., 2021; and Paslakis et al., 2020). Available studies show that economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is proportionately affect members of the society, depending on factors such as socio-economic status, livelihood strategies, and access to markets. However, though informative, these studies tend to be based on small sample sizes, limited geographical coverage or both, and thus less useful for informing the design of effective recovery strategies that lead to more resilient national food systems (Bene et al. 2021). As a contribution to addressing this information gap, this paper investigated changes in household food security and its drivers in Zambia between the pre pandemic and COVID-19 periods, with the objective of identifying significant drivers of food security and understand how they changed during the pandemic.
Adoption and Impact of ICT on Labour Productivity in Africa: Evidence from CrossCountry Firm-Level Data
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-07-12) Vaumi, Achille Tefong; Leudjou, Roland; Faha, Chistophe Péguy Choub
This paper uses a large cross-country firm-level database that contains information of about 6,300 firms from 19 sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, collected by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in 2010 and 2011, to assess the determinants of adoption and use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) in SSA firms, while controlling for the problem of censoring that would exist in the modelling of ICT-capital adoption choice. The gain obtained from the adoption of ICT-capital investment has been examined by estimating the impact of ICT-capital on labour productivity in adopters’ firms, while considering the role of Organizational Changes (OC). Compared to the Cobb-Douglas production function the Translog production function has been tested to be more adequate with our data. Unlike previous work on the estimation of a production function and given the simultaneity between labour productivity and ICT-capital investments, the Instrumental Variables (IV) method, has been used to address this endogeneity problem. The descriptive analysis shows that East African firms, on average, adopt ICT-capital more than other African countries, while Southern African firms, on average, use ICT-capital more intensively than other sub-regions. Finally, we find that income, wages, and firms’ size are significant determinants of ICTcapital adoption. Moreover, the study reveals that the impact of ICT-capital intensity on labour productivity in SSA countries is positive and statistically significant in the presence of OC, which is robust to several different specification tests.
Adoption de la Technologie et Accès au Crédit en Tanzanie : Une Analyse Économétrique Spatiale
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-10) Amin, Ariane; Dago, Eric; Kere, Eric; Yogo, Thierry
Cette étude a pour but d'analyser la relation entre l'adoption des technologies et l'accès au crédit par les agriculteurs en Tanzanie, en mettant particulièrement l'accent sur les effets de débordement spatial sur l'adoption des technologies. Nous examinons la diffusion des nouvelles technologies par les agriculteurs par l'intermédiaire de leurs pairs et mesurons la proximité géographique à l'aide des données de localisation GIS des exploitations agricoles. En utilisant l'enquête sur les ménages tanzaniens de 2012-2013 et un modèle probit à décalage spatial, nous trouvons des preuves que l'accès des agriculteurs au financement conduit Adoption de la Technologie et Accès au Crédit en Tanzanie : Une Analyse Économétrique Spatiale Ariane Amin, Eric Dago, Eric Kere et Thierry Yogo Octobre 2023 / No.800 DOCUMENT DE POLITIQUE GÉNÉRALE 2 Document de Politique Générale No.800 à une plus grande adoption des technologies agricoles, et que l'effet de débordement joue un rôle dans ce processus. En outre, nos résultats sont robustes sur une période de trois ans (2008-2009, 2010-2011 et 2012-2013). Enfin, les preuves de l'existence d'effets de débordement dans l'adoption des technologies agricoles suggèrent que les interactions entre les agriculteurs qui sont des "voisins géographiques" devraient être soutenues/exploitées pour atteindre une efficacité substantielle et des économies dans l'extension des nouvelles technologies agricoles.
ADOPTION DES TICs ET LEUR INCIDENCE SUR LE NIVEAU DE VIE DES POPULATIONS AU CONGO BRAZZAVILLE : ANALYSE EN COUPE TRANSVERSALE
(AERC, 2009-07) NDINGA, Mathias Marie Adrien
Adoption of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) in Industrial Firms in Cameroon
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-07-12) Fambeu, Ariel Herbert
The ICT revolution is already a reality for firms in developed countries and in many developing ones, especially that there is now solid evidence of how it has improved productivity and growth. But at the same time, the ICT penetration rate is still low in African firms. Using data on industrial firms in Cameroon, the present study is an attempt to establish the determinants of ICT adoption in the country. It uses a negative binomial model and a probit model selection bias correction. It transpires from the study’s econometric results that the size of the firm, the human capital of its employees, the proportion of its employees who are ICT-literate, its organizational practices, its manager’s qualities, and its regional location are the determinants of its ICT adoption rate. However, their discriminatory effect diminishes over time. From the study’s results, lessons can be drawn that can guide the development of an ICT diffusion policy, not only for the firms in Cameroon, but also for those in other similar African countries with a slow rate of ICT diffusion.
Adoption of Innovations and Productivity of Enterprises in French-Speaking sub-Saharan Africa: Case of Cameroon, Senegal and Ivory Coast
(2021-08) Dumas, Tsambou André; Ludwick, Ndokang Esone; Aline, Zobo
The productivity of firms is the result of many factors, including their ability to innovate. For most authors, innovation can be diversified into product, process, organization, and marketing innovation. The objective of this work is to highlight the impact of the adoption of innovations on firms’ productivity in Cameroon, Senegal, and Ivory Coast. This work is based on the survey "Determinants of firms’ performance in Francophone sub-Saharan Africa: The case of Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Senegal conducted among 1,897 companies (639 in Cameroon, 723 in Senegal and 535 in Ivory Coast) in 2014 by the International Development
Africa COVID-19 Update: Revisiting Policy Responses and the Long Road to Recovery
(AERC, 2020-08-29) Ndung’u, Njuguna; Shimeles, Abebe
This brief looks at the experiences of the past four months in dealing and coping with COVID-19 pandemic in Africa and reflects on the responses governments have made in their fight against the pandemic and assesses how the dramatic steps such as restrictions on mobility of people, ‘lockdowns’, were effective in slowing down infections. Our assessment of the lockdowns shows patterns of strong compliance by citizens with significant variation by the number of confirmed cases and level of development. Countries that experienced higher number of cases and are relatively richer (they have the capability to mount a social protection program) witnessed large reductions in movement of people from their normal routine than those with lower confirmed cases or poorer economies. Reductions in mobility seem to have reduced infection rates, but the magnitude was not that large. A one standard deviation reduction in mobility (about 25%) was associated with 2.8 % reduction in infection rates. Generally, lockdowns (proxies for social distancing) accounted for 25% of the variation in infection rates in Africa. Other preventive measures such as the use of masks, frequent handwashing, and use of sanitizers remain very important, though quantifying the magnitude of their impact is difficult. We argue that lockdown is increasingly less popular and imposing it for extended period is an untenable strategy for many countries. We have also documented that even at the early stage its effectiveness is highly correlated with the institutional strength of a country, particularly in the area of political stability and adherence to the rule of law. Hence, the road ahead points towards developing public trust in following government guidelines and overhauling the health care financing system, including reforming its reach to the masses and increase its readiness to deal effectively with the pandemic. It is also time to rethink about the necessity of building an effective social protection program on the foundations of existing social and religious networks that have proved vital during this pandemic. More importantly, the developments of digital payments platform have been effective and efficient with social protection programs for countries that used them.
Agriculture and Food Policies for Better Nutrition Outcomes in Africa
(AERC, 2021-03-05) African Economic Research Consortium
Aid Fragmentation and Development Outcomes in Sub-Saharan African Countries
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-11) Dedehouanou, Sessinou Erick Abel
This study examined the fragmentation of official development assistance (ODA) in Sub-Saharan African countries and the role played by development outcomes. Initially, it analyzed the fragmentation of aid over the period 2000 to 2019 using the Theil index. On the donor side, it appears that fragmentation of aid from bilateral Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors and bilateral non-DAC donors has decreased significantly in recent years. In addition, the aid provided by bilateral DAC donors has been less fragmented than that given by non-DAC bilateral donors. Several traditional donors and so-called emerging donors have contributed to the fragmentation of aid in Sub-Saharan African countries. As for aid recipients, the countries of Southern Africa or those belonging to the group of so-called fragile States have suffered less from aid fragmentation than their counterparts in Central, East, and West Africa and those belonging to the group of non-fragile States. We used an instrumental variables method and a panel quantile regression with non-additive fixed effect to assess the effect of the development factors on aid fragmentation. The results obtained validated that the fragmentation of aid can be reduced by better coordination of aid at the sectoral level and above all by internal development factors (structural transformation policies and equity in the use of resources). Indeed, no solution to the fragmentation of aid is possible without the implementation of structural policies to achieve a level of development capable of coordinating the action of donors and equity in the use of resources allowing the satisfaction of the needs of various social groups.
Alimentation Scolaire Ciblée Pour Une Meilleure Inscription Scolaire
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-06-03) Nyabaro, Violet Mme.; Ogolla, Michael M.
• Une mise en œuvre efficace des programmes d’alimentation scolaire contribue à l’augmentation du taux d’inscription. • Les programmes d’alimentation scolaire améliorent l’inscription à l’école s’ils sont ciblés sur les ménages pauvres, vivant dans les ASAL et les établissements urbains informels.
Amélioration des Données Socio-Économiques Relatives au Foncier - Rapport de Stratégie Namibie
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-03) Kaulihowa, Teresia
La Namibie couvre une superficie d'environ 824 000 km2. Le pays est caractérisé par un système à trois régimes fonciers, dont 23%, 35% et 42% représentent respectivement les terres publiques, communales et commerciales (agricoles). Les terres commerciales sont exploitées par un total de 12 382 agriculteurs, pour une superficie de 39,7 millions d'hectares. La plupart des terres commerciales appartiennent à des particuliers (86%) ; le gouvernement possède les 14% restants. Les terres commerciales privées contiennent le groupe précédemment défavorisé (16%) ainsi que le groupe précédemment favorisé (27,8). Des disparités existent toujours en termes de propriété foncière en Namibie. La redistribution des terres et la répartition équitable des terres pour remédier aux déséquilibres coloniaux en faveur des Namibiens précédemment défavorisés sont souvent considérées comme des catalyseurs de la réduction de la pauvreté. Cependant, certains documents officiels n'intègrent pas suffisamment les questions foncières dans les documents politiques traitant de la pauvreté. Par exemple, la principale déclaration de la Namibie sur la réduction de la pauvreté, la stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté pour la Namibie de 1998 (NPC 1998), ne considère pas la redistribution des terres comme un élément important de la réduction de la pauvreté car elle considère que l'industrie agricole est trop fragile pour offrir une base durable à un développement à grande échelle. De même, le programme d'action national de réduction de la pauvreté 2001-2005 publié en 2002 (NPC 2002) n'offre que peu de soutien aux questions de distribution des terres et de répartition équitable des terres.
Amélioration des Données Socio-Économiques sur les Terres Rapport de Stratégie Ghana
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-03) Novignon, Jacob
Cette mission visait à évaluer la nature et la disponibilité des données socio économiques sur les terres au Ghana. Les objectifs spécifiques de l'étude étaient les suivants : identifier les principales parties prenantes en matière de données foncières et socio-économiques, évaluer la disponibilité des données et fournir des suggestions pour améliorer les données foncières socio-économiques au Ghana. L'approche adoptée pour préparer cette stratégie a été de mener d'abord une étude documentaire pour identifier les types de données disponibles et leur accessibilité. L'étude s'est également engagée auprès de diverses parties prenantes du secteur foncier. Sept catégories clés de parties prenantes dans les données foncières socio économiques au Ghana ont été identifiées. En termes de disponibilité des données, le service statistique du Ghana héberge en ligne la plupart des données socio économiques nationales du pays et offre un accès facile à la plupart de ces ensembles de données. Cependant, certains ensembles de données n'ont pas été collectés par le service statistique et ne sont donc pas disponibles publiquement. Les statistiques sommaires présentées se concentrent principalement sur les terres agricoles et montrent quelques variations intéressantes selon le sexe et la localisation du ménage. Ce rapport stratégique recommande au gouvernement d'élargir les données socio économiques disponibles pour couvrir la propriété et l'utilisation des terres non agricoles. En outre, il est nécessaire de créer un service d'assistance foncière où les données socio-économiques foncières de toutes les parties prenantes peuvent être gérées pour un accès facile. Cela sera utile pour les décisions politiques et les mises en œuvre. .
An Empirical Analysis of the Interaction between Monetary Policy and Commercial Bank Lending in Nigeria
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-11) Emekaraonye, Chukwunenye Ferguson; Dick, Emmanuel Ikechukwu; Agu, Chukwuma
Using a recursive structural vector autoregressive model and quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2019Q4, this study examines the transmission mechanism from monetary policy instruments, specifically the monetary policy rate, base money, and nominal exchange rate, to outcome variables (prices and credit to the private sector) in Nigeria. The data showed structural breaks in 2004Q2, 2009Q3 and 2014Q3, which coincided with the 2004 banking consolidation, the 2009 Sanusi-led regulatory measures and the appointment of Godwin Emefiele as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2014. Accordingly, policy instrument transmission tests were conducted along three scenarios – 2004, 2009 and 2014 – to evaluate the changes that may have been imposed on the policy transmission mechanism by the reforms. Under the 2004 consolidation scenario, the reforms strengthened only the interest rate anchor (monetary policy rate), causing it to be effective in influencing credit to the private sector (CPS). Innovations in other monetary policy instruments led to insignificant responses in the outcome variables. Even base money, which previously impacted both prices and credit to the private sector, became insignificant and ineffective after 2004. Sanusi’s regime did not strengthen the impact of any of the monetary policy instruments on prices and credit to the private sector. Base money, that impacted outcome variables in some periods before 2009, became insignificant thereafter. Similarly, the 2014 development and sectoral support programmes under Emefiele also did not strengthen monetary policy instruments. Overall, the study affirms the position that monetary policy reforms may not always strengthen policy instruments to regulate or influence prices and credit to the private sector, especially when the transmission is indirect.
Analyse Spatiale des Effets du Climat sur l'Agriculture : Données Issues des Petits Exploitants Agricoles en Côte d'Ivoire
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-09) Ochou, Fabrice Esse; Ouattara, Pierre Dignakouho
Le changement climatique pèse sur le secteur de l'agriculture depuis quelques décennies. Cet impact pourrait avoir de graves conséquences pour les agriculteurs des pays en développement. Ce document applique l'approche spatiale pour évaluer la réponse du revenu agricole net au changement climatique en Côte d'Ivoire. Il utilise d'abord une simple approche comparative statique pour montrer que l'imperfection du marché induit une hétérogénéité spatiale dans les prix des produits agricoles et donc une autocorrélation spatiale. Prenant ces résultats comme point de départ, l'analyse empirique utilise un modèle d'erreur de Durbin spatial basé sur les données de l'enquête de 2016 de la Banque mondiale sur les ménages de petits exploitants en Côte d'Ivoire. Les résultats révèlent que les précipitations ont un effet direct non linéaire et des retombées linéaires positives sur le revenu agricole net. En outre, le document montre que l'effet marginal total des précipitations est positif dans les régions du centre, de l'est et du nord du pays et négatif dans les régions côtières et occidentales. En outre, les prévisions indiquent qu'une diminution des précipitations moyennes de 5 à 10 % entraîne en général une diminution du revenu agricole net moyen d'environ 0,45 % à 1,38 %, tandis qu'une augmentation dans les mêmes fourchettes entraîne une diminution du revenu agricole net moyen d'environ 0,02 % à 0,05 %.
Analysing the Relationship between Innovation and Productivity: A Case Study of Senegalese Manufacturing Industries
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-04-11) Kane, Aboubacry
The objective of this study was to profile innovative companies and to examine the link between innovation and productivity in manufacturing firms in Senegal. It considered the interaction between various forms of innovation. Using a descriptive analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach and multivariate regression, the study found that although Senegal had a satisfactory level of technology adoption, an innovation deficit remained in the industrial sector, notably in research and development (R&D) activities. The study established that larger enterprises and firms that export their products are the most innovative. However, no significant relationship was found between the gender of the manager of the firm and the adoption of various forms of innovation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the choice to adopt innovation in an organization is positively related to improved labour productivity. Regarding the other types of innovation, no association was found. Our results suggest the need to develop strategies that integrate innovation in industrial policy to facilitate its adoption. They also suggest the need to undertake regular surveys of innovation in firms to better understand market trends, identify their strengths and weaknesses and facilitate decision making in terms of innovation.
Analysis of the Competitiveness and Sophistication of Exports in Ecowas Countries: The Case of Measuring Trade in Value Added Products
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-07-12) Fofana, Abdul-Fahd
The objective of this study was first to analyze the participation of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries in the global value chain. Then, an analysis was done of the export performance of these countries in value added trade through export competitiveness and sophistication. The results show that the participation of these countries in the global value chain is strongly driven by downstream integration, that is, exports of primary products. About export performance in value added trade, the results suggest that the export basket of these countries is uncompetitive. The results also highlighted the low sophistication of the export basket with a very high degree of heterogeneity between countries.
Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 on the Trade, Transport and Health Sectors of Burundi
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Ndayitwayeko, Willy Marcel; Ntawiratsa, Rédempteur; Nkurunziza, Désiré
The outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to impact the lives of the people in Burundi. The country has witnessed significant increase in its confirmed cases on 31st March 2020. The disruptive effects of the COVID-19 crisis on global, regional and national trade have received enormous attention recently. The reason is that the pandemic has strongly affected the least-developed countries, especially those in Africa due to their reliance on export of commodities and tourism, and imports of pharmaceutical products, medical and food products. The measures taken to curb the spread of the virus at national and international levels has impacted negatively on the economy of Burundi. This policy brief presents the recommendations of the study done on the impact of COVID-19 mainly on trade, health and transport sectors.

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