Africa COVID-19 Update: Revisiting Policy Responses and the Long Road to Recovery
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Date
2020-08-29
Authors
Ndung’u, Njuguna
Shimeles, Abebe
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AERC
Abstract
This brief looks at the experiences of the past four months in dealing and coping
with COVID-19 pandemic in Africa and reflects on the responses governments have
made in their fight against the pandemic and assesses how the dramatic steps such
as restrictions on mobility of people, ‘lockdowns’, were effective in slowing down
infections. Our assessment of the lockdowns shows patterns of strong compliance
by citizens with significant variation by the number of confirmed cases and level of
development. Countries that experienced higher number of cases and are relatively
richer (they have the capability to mount a social protection program) witnessed
large reductions in movement of people from their normal routine than those with
lower confirmed cases or poorer economies. Reductions in mobility seem to have
reduced infection rates, but the magnitude was not that large. A one standard
deviation reduction in mobility (about 25%) was associated with 2.8 % reduction
in infection rates. Generally, lockdowns (proxies for social distancing) accounted
for 25% of the variation in infection rates in Africa. Other preventive measures
such as the use of masks, frequent handwashing, and use of sanitizers remain very
important, though quantifying the magnitude of their impact is difficult. We argue
that lockdown is increasingly less popular and imposing it for extended period is
an untenable strategy for many countries. We have also documented that even at
the early stage its effectiveness is highly correlated with the institutional strength
of a country, particularly in the area of political stability and adherence to the rule
of law. Hence, the road ahead points towards developing public trust in following
government guidelines and overhauling the health care financing system, including
reforming its reach to the masses and increase its readiness to deal effectively with
the pandemic. It is also time to rethink about the necessity of building an effective
social protection program on the foundations of existing social and religious networks
that have proved vital during this pandemic. More importantly, the developments
of digital payments platform have been effective and efficient with social protection
programs for countries that used them.
Description
Policy Briefs