GSYE Working Papers

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Browsing GSYE Working Papers by Author "Iman, Al-Ayouty"

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    Identifying Activities for Greater Employment Generation in Egypt: An Input-Output Analysis
    (2022-08) Iman, Al-Ayouty
    Between 2006 and 2017, Egypt's average rate of unemployment was 11.2%, and 23.8% among the youth. Promoting employment-generating industries may mitigate unemployment. The present study, therefore, identifies industries (agricultural, extraction and mining, manufacturing, and services activities) with an employment generating potential, with special reference to the youth. The study uses input output analysis to compute employment and output multipliers for Egypt in the year 2016‒2017. A spatial analysis is also employed to test for spatial autocorrelation (dependence) in total employment and youth employment. Results show that the highest manufacturing employment multipliers, ranging from 4.30 to 1.90, are: Food products; Basic metals; Motor vehicles; Paper products; Non-metallic mineral products; Beverages; Wearing apparel; Coke and refined petroleum products. Among primary industries, agriculture, extraction of crude petroleum, and mining employment multipliers are 1.45, 1.43, and 1.37, respectively. The employment multipliers of the leading service industries range from 2.66 to 1.44: Real estate; Hotels and restaurants; Administrative & support services; Communication; and Construction. Total and youth employment are found to have positive spatial dependence, with evident clustering of total and youth employment among governorates of the regions of Greater Cairo, the Delta, and Upper Egypt. Many of the high ranking employment multiplier industries and the feeding industries along their value chains are also located in these regions, and in geographically close regions. With the established spatial dependence, a key policy implication is to direct investment to where these industries are located, and possibly to locations of the feeding industries along their value chain. Potentially, there would be stronger inter-firm linkage across regions, and further generation of total and youth employment.