Effects of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on the Net Income of Cereal Crops in Togo: SemiParametric Approach

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Yevessé, Dandonougbo
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African Economic Research consortium
This paper analyses the economic effects of temperature and rainfall variability on the net income of the main cereal crops in Togo based on a semi-parametric specification of the Ricardian model. The model provides a flexible functional form of the non-linear relationship between farmers' net income and climatic variables and evaluates the effect of climate variability on the net income of these crops. Using data from the National Agricultural Census in Togo, temperature and rainfall data from spatial interpolation over all prefectures and soil type data for each locality, the results of the semi-parametric estimates reveal a complex non-linear relationship of temperature and rainfall variability on the net income of crops. In addition, a combination of crops and agro-forestry practices reduce the effects of climate variability on net income from cereal crops. Furthermore, variations in temperature and rainfall under socio-economic scenarios result in lower net income from cereal crops. The projections show that long-term variability in temperature and rainfall will have a negative impact on net income and that the impact will be greater in 2050 for all crops.