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- PublicationEthical considerations in AI-based user profiling for knowledge management: A critical review(African Economic Research Consortium, 2025-04-27) Njiru, Daniel Kogi; Mugo, David Muchangi; Musyoka , Faith MueniArtificial Intelligence (AI) enhances knowledge management systems by improving efficiency and personalization, but its rapid adoption raises ethical concerns. This study examines the ethical considerations in AI-based user profiling for knowledge management systems, with a focus on academic environments. The review employed thematic analysis to summarize existing research on ethical challenges and proposed new ways to integrate ethical considerations into AI-driven knowledge management systems. The review analysed 102 peer-reviewed articles published between 2020 and 2024 from major scientific databases such as IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, and Scopus. The findings show that privacy 27.9 % and algorithmic bias 25.6 % had major ethical concerns revealing disparities between theoretical frameworks and implementable solutions. Five key bias sources were also identified: data deficiencies, demographic homogeneity, spurious correlations, improper comparators, and cognitive biases. While 73 % of the reviewed frameworks acknowledge at least one ethical consideration, only 28 % propose practical strategies to address them. Some promising approaches include explainable AI techniques, privacy-preserving algorithms, and fairness-aware machine learning. However, there are still gaps in addressing the long-term societal impacts. The study recommends the implementation of an Ethical AI Feedback Loop (EAFL) system, which continuously monitors, evaluates, and adjusts user profiling algorithms based on predefined ethical metrics. Additionally, the study introduces the concept of "Ethical Debt" to quantify and manage the long-term ethical implications. These innovative approaches aim to integrate ethical considerations directly into AI-based knowledge management systems, promoting responsible and adaptable user profiling practices.
- PublicationOrder Flow-Based Microstructure Analysis of the Spot Exchange Rate in Zambia(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-05-13) Phiri, Sydney Chauwa; Chisha, Keegan; Chipili, Jonathan M.Traditional macroeconomic fundamentals have challenges in explaining nominal exchange rate movements at short horizons partly due to their inability to capture expectations. Using data from the Bank of Zambia, and an order flow-based microstructure model within a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, this study establishes that order flows in the foreign exchange market in Zambia contain useful information in explaining daily exchange rate movements for the period 2016‒2020. Daily order flows of four out of 18 different customer types are found to contain information content with the interbank, manufacturing, households, as well as wholesale and retail being the most important. Cross-market order flows contain less information to explain daily movements in the kwacha/US dollar exchange rate. The policy lesson from the empirical results points to the central bank paying attention to the demand requirements by the four identified segments of the foreign exchange market that can potentially drive up the exchange rate and generate inflationary pressures.
- PublicationAnalysing the Relationship between Innovation and Productivity: A Case Study of Senegalese Manufacturing Industries(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-05-13) Kane, AboubacryThe objective of this study was to profile innovative companies and to examine the link between innovation and productivity in manufacturing firms in Senegal. It took into account the interaction between various forms of innovation. Using a descriptive analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach and multivariate regression, the study found that although Senegal had a satisfactory level of technology adoption, an innovation deficit remained in the industrial sector, notably in research and development (R&D) activities. The study established that larger enterprises and firms that export their products are the most innovative. However, no significant relationship was found between the gender of the manager of the firm and the adoption of various forms of innovation. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the choice to adopt innovation in an organization is positively related to improved labour productivity. In regard to the other types of innovation, no association was found. Our results suggest the need to develop strategies that integrate innovation in industrial policy in order to facilitate its adoption. They also suggest the need to undertake regular surveys of innovation in firms so as to better understand market trends, identify their strengths and weaknesses and facilitate decision making in terms of innovation.
- PublicationSudanese External Debt: Sustainability Analysis and Prospects for Solutions(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-05-06) Hag, Mohammed GebrailThis study aims to analyse Sudan’s debt sustainability and suggests practical solutions for its external debt crisis. To this end, the study applies descriptive statistics methods to secondary data. The empirical results of a debt sustainability analysis point out that Sudan remains in debt distress as all its external debt burden ratios remain well above their respective indicative thresholds. Consequently, this study introduces three scenarios for solving the Sudanese debt crisis. The first is full or partial debt relief through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The second scenario is repaying all external debt through the establishment of a so-called “oil revenue fund” to serve Sudanese external debt in collaboration with South Sudan. The study also suggests debt division between Sudan and South Sudan as a last resort. The study shows that Sudan faces an external debt burden ranging from US$7.96 billion (financial capacity weighted) to US$31.6 billion (geographical method weighted). By comparison, South Sudan’s debt burden ranges between US$8.2 billion (geographical method weighted) and US$31.84 billion (financial capacity weighted). Additionally, the study suggests that each country bears an additional US$4.2 billion as their share of the interest accumulation of the debt stock upon the separation of South Sudan, which amounted to US$39.8 billion. Several policy implications emerge from the study that could help policy makers in the two countries, and key creditors, be more strategic in addressing the issue in a way that accommodates common interests.
- PublicationThe Distributional Impacts of Public Expenditure in Ethiopia: A Gender-Lens Analysis(African Economic Research Consortium, 2024-05-06) Tesfaye, WondimagegnThis study investigates the gendered distributional impacts of public expenditure policy using survey and administrative data from Ethiopia. It specifically assesses the progressivity and pro-poorness and poverty, and inequality impact of cash and in-kind transfers, through a gender-lens analysis. The study employs an expenditure incidence analysis approach based on the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) methodology to determine whether government expenditures redistribute resources to the poor. The findings of the study provide evidence that government social spending has significant welfare impacts, although some of the social services are poorly targeted. Among the public spending instruments studied, primary education spending and productive safety net programme (PSNP) transfers tend to be the most progressive, and tertiary education spending appears to be the least progressive. The benefits associated with public health spending are also less progressive. The results have important policy implications for public spending policy reforms, poverty reduction and income redistribution.