Economic Costs of Civil Conflicts: The Case of Burundi
Date
2022
Authors
Ndoricimpa, Arcade
Ndayikeza, Michel-Armel
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Abstract
This study examines the effects of episodes of civil conflicts in Burundi on its economic
performance. The study applies the regression method using Extreme Bound Analysis,
and the Synthetic Control method. Our main results indicate that: (i) from 1970 to
2015, civil conflicts, on average, reduced economic growth by 4 percentage points per
year of conflict; (ii) the 1993-2003 civil war cost each Burundian between US$ 1,290
and US$ 1,520 and between US$ 8 billion and US$ 10 billion to the whole country;
(iii) the last civil conflict in 2015 has been relatively costly, having reduced economic
growth by 8.9 percentage points relative to its counterfactual. These results highlight
the need to consolidate peace to eliminate fragility and achieve long-term economic
development.
Description
Keywords
Conflicts; Fragility; GDP growth; GDP cost; Burundi; Extreme Bound Analysis; Synthetic Control Method; Hamilton filter