Public Sector Economics

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    ANALYSE DE L’ACTIVITE DE TAXI-MOTO AU BENIN
    (Université de Yaoundé II, 2017-04-22) DJOSSOU, Gbetoton Nadège Adèle
    Au Bénin, le transport des personnes est principalement assuré par les taxis-motos. De ce fait, l’activité de conducteur de taxi-moto offre chaque année des opportunités d’emploi à des milliers d’individus. Mais, l’exercice de cette activité est associé à de nombreux risques d’accident. L’objet de la présente thèse est d’analyser l’activité de conducteur de taxi-moto à Cotonou (Bénin) à travers (i) les déterminants de son choix, (ii) les risques d’accident qui y sont associés et (iii) la demande d’assurance des conducteurs de taxi-moto contre ces risques. Nous avons modélisé la décision de choix de l’activité de taxi-moto à partir d’un graphe qui met en relation les revenus issus de l’activité de taxi-moto, les niveaux d’éducation des conducteurs de taxi-moto ainsi que leur degré d’aversion au risque. Il en ressort qu’en général ceux qui choisissent l’activité ont de faibles niveaux d’éducation et de compétence et ont le goût du risque. Nous avons ensuite montré à partir d’un modèle hédonique, que les revenus issus de l’activité (en moyenne 5.144 FCFA par jour) sont insuffisants pour couvrir les risques y afférents. Cependant, pour ne pas rester au chômage, les individus choisissent de l’exercer en dépit de ces risques. Pour finir nous avons évalué à partir d’une enquête contingente auprès d’un échantillon de 431 conducteurs de taxi-moto, leur Consentement à Payer (CAP) pour s’assurer contre les risques d’accident auxquels ils font face dans l’exercice de leur profession. L’estimateur de Turnbull nous a permis d’estimer le CAP moyen à environ 1.600FCFA par mois pour les questions à simple choix dichotomique et à environ 2.000FCFA par mois pour les questions à double choix dichotomique. Plus la perception des risques d’accident par un conducteur de taxi-moto est élevée et plus grande est son CAP pour s’assurer. L’assurance étant une forme d’épargne, il est plus facile pour ceux qui ont des habitudes d’épargne de s’assurer.
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    DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE IN NIGERIA 1980-2015
    (University of Ibadan, 2019-07-22) PERIOLA, OLOLADE
    Fiscal Discipline (FD) is the ability of government to efficiently maintain smooth and long-term financial operations in relation to total revenue, financial balance, public debt and total spending. The growing fiscal deficit across countries and, the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010 underscored the need for FD. In Nigeria, the growing debt, unmanageable budget deficit, consistent imbalance in expenditure and revenue variance, and unnecessary delay in budget processes have made FD critical. However, little attention has been devoted to the identification of the determinants of FD in Nigeria. This study, therefore, examined the determinants of FD in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. The Common pool resource theory provided the framework for the econometric model in the mould of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin, World Development Indicators, Quality of Governance Basic Data Set, and Approved Annual Budgets. The extent of FD was assessed using four complementary measures: Primary Balance (PB), Debt Sustainability (DS), Expenditure Variance (EV) and Revenue Variance (RV). The examined determinants of FD included spending units, capital inflows, government size, political regime, trade openness and transparency. The time-series properties of these variables were examined. The Bounds test approach and Error Correction Modeling technique were deployed for the long-run and short-run analyses, respectively. All estimates were validated at р≤0.05. The FD models, (except DS) exhibited a long-run path (PB, F-Stat. 29.4; EV, F-Stat.14.6; RV, F-Stat.55.0) in which spending units exerted significant influence on the measures of FD. A percentage increase in spending units led to rise in PB (2.0%, t=4.77) and EV (0.4%, t=2.96) and decline in RV (2.6%, t=5.94). Similarly, a percentage increase in government size also led to rise in PB (23.5%, t=4.84) and EV (22.1%, t=3.61) and a fall in RV (52.7%, t=3.81). Conversely, trade openness reduced the PB (6.9%, t=3.27), while political regime (0.09, t=3.94) indicated that military regimes were more disciplined than democratic regimes. Capital inflows reduced EV (42.2%, t=3.92). The short-run estimates showed that a percentage increase in spending units deteriorated RV (1.6%, t=6.30), and increased the PB (1.3%, t=8.13) and EV (0.4%, t=2.11). In contrast, a percentage increase in capital inflows lowered the PB (26.1%, t=5.57) and EV (33.3%, t=3.39) and increased the RV (37.8%, t=5.99). A percentage increase in transparency lowered PB (0.4%, t=9.54) and EV (0.6%, t=5.14). Fiscal discipline was evidently lacking in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015, as primary balance, debt sustainability, expenditure variance and revenue variance indicated fiscal indiscipline. The indiscipline was essentially determined by spending units, government size, and regime type, as military regime was more discipline than democratic regimes. Therefore, there is the need to ensure fiscal discipline in fiscal operations accordingly.
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    EXTERNAL DEBT, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN GHANA
    (UNIVERSITY OF BENIN, 2012-07-01) Tuffour, Joseph Kwadwo
    The broad objective of this study is to empirically estimate the influence of external debt on economic growth and investment in Ghana. The specific objectives are to determine the: impact of external debt on GDP growth, the threshold level at which external debt becomes burdensome and the possible growth loss of exceeding external debt threshold and lastly to determine whether or not external debt crowds out investment. A macroeconomic framework of economic growth was developed with linkages to investment and external debt. This served as the methodological basis. The econometric model specifications entail equations explaining output and investment. The research used time series data over the period 1970 – 2009. Non-linear Least Squares and Two Stage Least Square estimation methods were used. In addition, summary statistics and graphical approaches were applied. A non-linear relationship between external debt and output growth was established. The external debt threshold was estimated to be 46.2 percent, supporting the external debt Laffer curve hypothesis. The positive contribution of external debt (at lower levels up to the threshold) supports the notion that, a certain minimum requirement of external debt is necessary to support the growth process. On the other hand, beyond the threshold level of external debt accumulation, the impact of external debt on economic growth begins to fall. The threshold level suggests that, Ghana encounters growth rate problems at a moderate external debt to GDP ratio. The research also reveals a cumulative economic growth loss of 12.28 percentage points (indicating the growth loss when the estimated external debt threshold is exceeded). This leads to an annual average growth loss of 0.31 percentage points, showing how high growth would have been if the external debt to GDP ratio had stayed at 46.2 percent. The research further shows that, beyond the threshold level, the positive impact of foreign debt on growth would begin to fall until the external debt to GDP ratio reaches 92 percent. Any foreign debt acquired further than the 92 percent of GDP would actually reduce output growth. In addition, the research unravels the existence of the debt overhang problem. This occurs in two ways through: crowding out effect on private investment, constraining public sector liquidity as well as discouraging private investment. Also, it was noted that, the accelerator effect applies in Ghana for the study period.