Econometrics and Statistics

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    FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN SADC COUNTRIES: A SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC APPROACH
    (UNIVERSITY OF BOSTWANA, 2020-12-06) TSELADIKAE, KATLEGO DANNY
    This study pursued an empirical investigation on the nexus between fiscal policy and economic growth in SADC countries with special reference to spatial analysis. Econometric approach employed in the study is based on the data spanning from 2000-2017 considering twelve countries in the SADC region. The study uses both the traditional and spatial econometric approaches to map channels through which fiscal variables affect economic growth considering individual countries and the region as a whole. The empirical evidence from the country-level analysis is mixed but substantial across economies. The Toda and Yamamoto causality followed for individual countries supports the adoption of different hypotheses to address fiscal variables. However, the panel causality test proposed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) suggested the use of the tax-spend hypothesis. The investigation of spillover effects through the spatial modelling suggested that tax revenue in the region negatively affected other contiguous countries due to spatial interaction. The recommendations were that the countries should adopt tax harmonization policies and that tax revenues and government spending decisions should be reconciled. Boosting economic growth for the region remains vital since it influences the evolution of debt levels.
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    The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Environmental Quality: Empirical Evidence from SADC Countries (1990-2016)
    (UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, 2019-05-03) CHINYANGA, Earnest. R
    The impact of trade liberalization on environmental quality has received considerable attention, both in policy debate and in the theoretical literature. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence on the issue remains mixed and lagged. This study adds to the literature by unearthing the relationships and decomposing the effect into scale, technique and composition in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region using OLS with Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) estimation technique. Aggregated panel data on carbon dioxide emission and on natural resource depletion spanning from 1990-2016 are used as proxies for environmental quality. The study findings provide evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the case of natural resource depletion. However, the EKC model is not present in the case of carbon dioxide emission. The results also indicate that trade liberalization has detrimental effect on environmental quality as a result of a positive scale effect of trade overriding the negative technique effect of trade. This finding appears to confirm the pollution haven hypothesis. Also, energy consumption is positively related with carbon dioxide emission and negatively related with natural resource depletion. Sustainable development assistance and urbanization have a negative relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. On the other hand, sustainable development assistance has a positive effect on natural resource depletion. Therefore, the study recommends that further trade liberalization policies in developing countries in Africa should be accompanied by strict enforcement of environmental regulations in order to avert the adverse impact of trade on the environment. The Member States should be mindful of the kind of multinational corporations allowed to produce and should allow corporations whose activities produce relatively less emissions or nearly produce no pollution.