Commerce

Permanent URI for this collection

https://publication.aercafricalibrary.org/handle/123456789/6

Browse

Recent Submissions

Now showing 1 - 5 of 15
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Resilience to terms of trade shocks in Sub-Saharan Africa: the role of fiscal Policy and exchange rate regime
    (AERC, 2025) Yaya, Aminou
    This paper's objective is to analyse the role of fiscal policies and the exchange rate regime in the effect of terms of trade shocks on growth volatility in SSA. To achieve this objective, we use an estimation technique based on instrumental variables (2SLS) for a sample of 44 sub-Saharan African countries covering the period spanning 1980 to 2020. The results show that terms of trade shocks as well as discretionary policy contribute to growth volatility in sub-Saharan Africa. However, fiscal rules reduce the effects of terms of trade shocks and discretionary policy volatility on growth volatility. Furthermore, exchange rate regime fixity tends to positively affect growth volatility. This result implies the need for sub-Sahara African countries to consider fiscal policies, and the nature of the exchange rate regime in their resilience and volatility reduction strategy.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    The role of ICTs in bilateral trade in sub-Saharan Africa: A gravity model analysis
    (AERC, 2025) Bessan, Eudoxie; Ayedoun, Christian
    This paper aims to analyze the impact of information and communication technologies (ICTs) on bilateral trade flows among sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Utilizing an extended ICT gravity model, the study explores how key ICT indicators influence exports, imports, and trade in manufactured goods. The analysis covers a sample of 35 countries over the period from 2010 to 2019. To address potential over-representation of zero trade flows, the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator is employed. The findings reveal that ICT development, particularly access to mobile telephony, mitigates the effect of distance on trade by facilitating intra-African trade flows. However, the limited availability of ICT infrastructure, especially restricted Internet access, means that physical distance remains a significant barrier to trade. Based on these insights, the study recommends strategic investments in ICT infrastructure and innovation, aimed at reducing transaction costs and improving ICT accessibility. Enhanced regional economic integration is also suggested as a pathway to facilitate these improvements and strengthen trade networks among SSA countries.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Access to Credit and Household Welfare in Rural Rwanda
    (AERC, 2025) Musabanganji, Edouard
    Rwanda is a densely populated developing country where many people depend on agriculture but lack access to credit. The country has low agricultural productivity, along with high levels of income inequality and food insecurity. Studies have shown that credit access can improve rural agricultural household welfare. Over the years, the government’s policies have substantially improved financial inclusion. However, poverty levels remain high particularly in rural areas. This study investigates the drivers of participation in the credit market and the effect of credit access on dietary and food diversity scores, as well as household spending. It utilizes data from 6,183 rural households obtained from the 2015 National Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis survey. It analyzes the effect and drivers of access to credit on rural household total monthly expenditure, food consumption score and dietary diversity score as the outcome variables. The study applied the Endogenous Switching Regression, Propensity Score Matching, and Coarsened Exact Matching techniques. The estimation yields consistent results and reveals that access to credit is positively affecting the welfare of rural households as it induces an increase of the household consumption expenditure of borrowing households. The study does not reveal a significant linkage between access to credit and the household food consumption score. The findings suggest increasingsensitization sessions and awareness on the importance of credits.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    The Role of Trade Policies in Innovation: The Case of Malawi
    (AERC, 2025) Montfaucon, Angella Faith
    Trade openness is a key factor in making an economy more receptive to technology spillovers from the global market. This paper assesses how trade liberalization and processes of importing affect innovation in Malawi. Two measures of innovation are used at the macro-level: technological processes and products (TPP) and the technological intensity of imports. At the firm-level, four measures are used: new products, new methods, new logistics, and new ideas. At the macro-level, the results suggest that trade liberalization leads to increased imports of technological products, more than other products, and the benefits are relatively larger for imports from outside COMESA. Therefore, there is a limited role for further COMESA trade integration in regard to innovation enhancement from trade. However, when the technological intensity of imports is assessed, high-technology imports would benefit less than primary and resource-based imports regardless of origin, suggesting low absorption of foreign technologies. At the firm level, firms that reported facing obstacles from customs and trade regulations and those that face higher delays in clearing customs are less likely to innovate using all four measures. On the other hand, firms that use foreign-owned technology are more likely to innovate, confirming the channel through which trade impacts innovation.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Financial Inclusion and Entrepreneurship in Six Sub Saharan African Countries: Evidence from FinAccess and FinScope Survey Data
    (African Economic Research Consortium, 2023-06) GAKPA, Lewis-Landry
    This paper investigates how financial inclusion affects individuals’ decisions to start businesses in the context of six Sub-Saharan African countries, using micro-data from the FinScope and FinAccess surveys. To do so, we use an instrumental variable (IV) technique to assess the empirical relationships. Overall, the results reveal that access to banking services, formal non-banking services, informal financial services and mobile money services positively and significantly influence the decision to start businesses in the six countries, namely Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Namibia and Zambia. Furthermore, although the results show that a range of both demand and supply-side barriers prevent individuals from accessing banking services for entrepreneurial purposes, supply-side constraints are the most common barriers to individuals starting a business. In view of the above, policy interventions should first aim at creating an enabling environment to increase people’s access to all types of financial services and, secondly, address both supply- and demand-side constraints to promote entrepreneurship and economic growth. These measures should be aimed at increasing the level of financial inclusion with a view to stimulating entrepreneurial activities, which are the real pillars in development and poverty reduction process in Sub-Saharan African countries.