COVID 19 - Training Working Papers

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Addressing Climate Change Cause and Effect on Land Cover and Land Use in Africa
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-25) Adjaye, John Asafu-
This study investigates the impact of climate change on land-use change and land cover (LCLUC)-induced greenhouse gas emissions in Africa. In particular, it tests the hypothesis that increasing agricultural productivity can be a land-based climate mitigation strategy to address the issue of LCLUC-induced emissions. The results confirm the well-known fact that climate change will have a devastating impact on Africa’s agricultural sector and therefore the welfare of the people. However, the results also clearly demonstrate that technology can be leveraged to improve agricultural productivity, which will not only enhance food production and improve food security but also mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, we show that employing agricultural intensification strategies based on lifting total factor productivity can increase agricultural output with less land use, thereby saving millions of hectares of land from being brought into cultivation for staple crop production.
Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 on the Trade, Transport and Health Sectors of Burundi
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Ndayitwayeko, Willy Marcel; Ntawiratsa, Rédempteur; Nkurunziza, Désiré
The unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 is affecting all aspects of society and the economies of many countries. This study aims at analysing the impact of this pandemic on the trade, transport and health sectors of Burundi. It is based on data collected using semi-structured questionnaires and interview guides applied on key informants. In addition, the analysis relied on monthly trade data from some ministries and public databases. The results reveal that there was a decline in trade when one compares values of exports and imports during the second quarter of 2020, which is the quarter when the country was in the pandemic compared to the same period in 2019, which is the period before the pandemic. Exports decreased from 99.1 billion BIF in the second quarter in 2019 to 30.8 billion BIF in the second quarter of 2020 due to COVID-19, translating to a decline of 68.92% for exports. Restrictions on movement of people and goods have also impacted on the imports of Burundi. Imports increased from 368.5 billion BIF in the second quarter in 2019 to 416.7 billion BIF, translating to a growth of 13.08%. However, imports are estimated at 433.00 billion BIF in the first quarter of 2020 from 436 billion BIF of last quarter of 2019, meaning a slight decrease of 0.6% from the first quarter to the second quarter. The results indicate that there is a very considerable drop in the value of goods that pass through these different modes of transport. For example, there was a 73.41% drop in value of goods passing through Melchior Ndadaye International Airport. The percentage drop registered by other transport companies are: Balloré Logistics (46.75%), Maritime Rail and Port Authority (54.89%), Volcano Transport Agency (83.97%) and Memento Transport Agency (84.84%). The results of the survey indicate that there was a very considerable drop in number of passengers using the different modes of transport. The percentage drop in passengers travelling through Melchior Ndadaye International Airport, Volcano transport and Memento transport were 99.99%, 78.74% and 77.55%, respectively. In the health sector, the results indicate that the weekly positive case rate has been consistently very low. This low rate could be explained by the decline of the voluntary COVID-19 test in the designated places by government. On average, the weekly testing rate since the beginning of the pandemic in Burundi is 2 per 10,000 inhabitants (per week); this is very low compared to the average threshold of at least 10 tests per week in the WHO African region. In addition, there has been a gradual decline in the screening rate. The overall screening rate estimated at 70 tests per 10,000 inhabitants remains low, with an average number of tests of about 290 per day since the beginning of the pandemic in Burundi. From the survey results, the study recommends provision of financial incentives and subsidies for transport, storage and cold chain costs for essential products; to provide non-contact food delivery mechanisms for high-risk or infected populations; prioritization of essential transport needs in supply chains; and periodic update priorities based on current risk assessments, for example at the height of an outbreak. On the transport and health sectors, transport of medical supplies and food is to be prioritized and given the "green light" (fewer stops, controls, tolls) when crossing administrative borders. Emergency transport for essential needs, fuel, food, medical supplies and equipment need to well planned, and planning for rationing of essential food and fuel. Information and awareness actions of the population on preventive measures should be reinforced, in particular on the effective implementation of barrier measures. There is need to build capacity in human resources, and ensure cross-border surveillance.
Climate Change and Migration in West African Coastal Zones
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-11-09) Mbaye, Ahmadou Aly; Gueye, Adama; Gueye, Fatou; Sarr, Khady Yama; Gueye, Fama
Global trends in migration show a predominance of internal over external flows. The African continent is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change due to its higher levels of exposure and its scarcer financial resources for adaptation. Therefore, climate change presents in Africa some peculiar challenges to livelihoods, and security. In this paper, we assess the climate-induced migration in African coastal zones, accounting for many different factors such as conflict, demography, social networks, economic opportunities, and geographical factors such as the terrain. We also provide a critical review of major strands of models of climate-induced migration, namely agent-based models, choice-centred models, gravity model, and household allocation models. The most used data in climate change analyses are also analyzed.
COVID-19 and its Impact on Trade and Transport Sectors in Tanzania
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Katera, Lucas
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the countries around the East African region in different ways with its impact varying across the countries. Also, each country has adopted its approach to dealing with this health crisis, even though they share common borders and also a lot of activities are done across borders, including trade in all sizes. As a result, all sectors whose activities involve crossing borders were heavily affected in different ways mainly due to limitations of the flow of goods and people from one country to another. These problems were amplified by countries’ mistrust of the approach used by others in dealing with the pandemic. This study examines the extent to which COVID-19 has affected the trade and transport sectors in Tanzania. In the trade sector, the study examines the performance of the sector and goes into deep analysis of selected goods. In the transport sector, the study focuses on assessing the effective flow of goods along the central corridor. Also, the tourism sector has been analysed, given that the transport sector is one of its important aspects in its chain. In that manner, the study assesses the tourists’ arrival in Zanzibar, which is one of the main sources of Zanzibar’s income. Overall, the study analyses the performance of transport and trade sectors in Tanzania before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study used secondary data from the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) and lastly from the Zanzibar Commission for Tourists and the Department of Immigration Zanzibar. Descriptive statistics were used to capture trends of variables that constituted the trade and transport sectors before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings show that COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the trade and transport sectors differently. In some cases, even within the same sector, different sub-sectors have been affected differently. The trade sector was not very much affected, though imports were relatively more affected. Due to fewer imports during the COVID-19 pandemic, the trade balance was not very much affected like it was in 2019. In the transport sector, port activities were not very much affected by COVID-19 due to measures taken by the port to increase efficiency to reduce congestion that would lead to the spread of the pandemic. However, transit goods were negatively affected due to conditions imposed at borders like mandatory screening and quarantine of travellers for a specified time. Tourism was also negatively affected due to travel restrictions and flight cancellation.
COVID-19 Implications on Private Investment and Markets in East Africa: A Rapid Assessment
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Mwesigye, Francis
The COVID-19 pandemic coupled with government measures to contain it, has affected many economies and exposed the level of economic vulnerabilities across countries. This study uses macro- and firm-level data to examine the implications of COVID-19 on private investments and markets in East Africa. Specifically, the report used stock market performance data, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and remittances flows, revenues from tourism, imports of capital and intermediate goods, and the enterprise survey data in the analysis. The findings indicate that COVID-19 has affected investments and businesses in East Africa. For instance, the study found that the stock price dropped from March 2020 and had not recovered by the end of 2020. In addition, inflow of FDI and remittances declined during COVID-19, and that revenues from foreign tourists dropped to zero in the second quarter of 2020 largely due to lockdown. The value of imported capital and intermediate goods declined during the lockdown but later started recovering albeit at a slow rate when the lockdowns were eased. On the business performance implication of COVID-19, the study found that several businesses closed during the lockdown, especially those in entertainment and arts, wholesale and retail trade, and those providing accommodation services. Business turnover reduced during the lockdown especially for businesses that closed for a longer time. The findings indicate that many businesses resorted to cost-cutting techniques, diversification of sales channels, prudent financial management, reduction of the pay roll, and use of PPEs to ensure continuity. However, these measures affected employment as many businesses laid off staff. Moreover, reduction of the payroll affected the lowest ranking staff who are also the lowest earners, suggesting that COVID-19 could have had other socio-economic effects such as food insecurity. The study found that most businesses have not benefited from any government support. Indeed, only 10% of the businesses reported that they received any form of support from the government. Support came in different forms such as promotion of use of personal protective equipment, financial subsidy, debt restructuring, and government payment of its arrears. The study found, however, that support mainly targeted manufacturing businesses and mining but not those that had been worst hit by the pandemic such as entertainment and art, and those in the hospitality industry.
East African Community Regional Trade Policy Amidst the COVID-19 Crisis
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Zgovu, Evious Kingswell
Since the COVID-19 pandemic started fanning out from Wuhan epicentre in China in November 2019, governments around the world have worked tirelessly to find the means to control its spread and the unprecedented negative economic effects. International services trade, which has been a source of considerable global economic prosperity in recent times, was the primary channel for cross-border transmission through persons travelling for leisure and/or business or working in the international transport and logistics sectors. Governments COVID-19 control measures including national social and economic lockdowns, suspension/ban of international passenger travel, and later stringent cross-border health certification requirements, inter alia, virtually kneecapped cross-border trade and value chains at national, regional and global levels. The quest to find the way forward for the East Africa Community (EAC) regional trade policy amidst the COVID-19 crisis led to the commission of this and other related technical studies by the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) under a Grant Agreement with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) to implement the project “Strengthening East African Community (EAC) Policy and Response to the COVID-19”. This study was conducted offsite between November 2020 and April 2021. Data used in the analysis was obtained from public (statistical offices) and private sector sources in the EAC partner states, international data repositories, including the World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), International Trade Centre (ITC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and others. Key trade trends are analyzed using export and import monthly data (January 2019 to September 2020) augmented by 2015-2019 annual series on some key trade fundamentals for context. The main findings that guide the way forward include the following: • The EAC recorded dramatic trade and economic declines during March-May 2020 before posting tepid rebounds from June through August-September 2020 but these were dampened by the effects of second and third waves of the virus driven by more easily transmissible new variants first identified in the United Kingdom in September 2020 and South Africa in December 2020. In fact, although the EAC recorded a couple of impressive rebounds month-on-month within 2020 and between 2019 and 2020, overall EAC trade has not had an effective trade recovery that compensates over and above the losses experienced in 2020 vis-à-vis 2019 trade performance. EAC cumulative total trade of US$ 39.5 billion by September 2020 fell short of the US$ 40.6 billion recorded by September 2019. • Both goods and services trade have been adversely affected but services, in particular tourism and hospitality sectors, have been most impacted by disappearance of big-spending international tourists and business travellers. Given the significant importance of tourism in the EAC value chains and export trade basket, the region has sustained significant adverse short-term and medium-term impacts on output, employment and incomes. • The pain of the COVID-19 crisis has been felt more acutely in the EAC and other economies heavily reliant on the-now disintegrated global value chains. The crisis reawakens the urgency for developing and maintaining strong domestic and regional industrial clusters to meet local, regional and global export market demands. This is not a call for empirically retrogressive inward-looking import-substitution regimes; on the contrary, it calls for growing and supporting industries that can compete in domestic markets (with imports) and regional and global markets. • The burden of resolving the enormous negative impacts and challenges caused by the COVID-19 crisis in the EAC is made heavier by the prevailing initial (pre COVID-19-crisis) internal economic structural and institutional weaknesses. The majority of EAC partner states are least developed, with weak healthcare and economic structures and systems with limited application of digital technology in economic activities, thus have limited shock-absorption capacity. Institutionally, despite progress on national trade policy management, customs modernization and trade facilitation and regional integration, there remains many loose ends in respect of regional harmonization and coordination of trade management and facilitation. For instance, loose ends in regional harmonization of COVID-19 testing and certification amplified the negative trade impacts by instigating some of the longest cross-border cargo queues (more than 50 kilometres in some instances), which raised trade costs and undermined the EAC’s trade competitiveness. • The emergence of COVID-19 has re-emphasized the usefulness of digitalization for facilitating economic activities, trade, among other things. The crisis has clearly shown that the future is digital. E-commerce has blossomed in the EAC during the COVID-19 crisis, albeit being dominated by mobile money transfers, concentrated in urban centres, and involving more males than females, and consumer goods than investment spending. Actually, e-commerce would have been greater but for the undeveloped and uncoordinated supporting legal and market institutions, telecommunication infrastructure deficiencies and generally low economic purchasing power of the population. • The EAC has considerable untapped export potential, which when combined with the reduced export production due to the crisis gives the region a large platform to rapidly expand trade over and above pre-COVID19-crisis levels, subject to the partner states doing the right things at the right time in the right manner.
Impact Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Tourism and Hospitality Industry in the EAC and Post Recovery Strategy for the Sector
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Muoki, D.
Tourism is one of the largest foreign exchange earners and fastest-growing sectors in the East African Community (EAC). According to the EAC Secretariat, tourist arrivals in the EAC region increased from 3.5 million persons in 2006 to about 7 million in 2019. Tourism contributed to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the EAC Partner States by an average of 9.5% in 2019. It contributed an average of 17.2% to EAC total exports and 7.1% to employment. However, the upward trajectory in tourism in the region, with its positive impact on the economy, was devastatingly affected by the onset of COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In view of this, the East African Business Council (EABC) with the support of the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) commissioned undertaking of this study. Essentially, the study aimed at assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality industry, and to generate policy options that the EAC Partner States should adopt to protect sector players from COVID-19 disruptions and future pandemics. The main activities of the study included: assessment of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism and hospitality industry in the EAC; analysis of the current fiscal incentives for the sector; assessment of the non-tariff barriers that the sector has faced during this period of the pandemic; and propose recommendations for the tourism sector in EAC arising from the assessment. To achieve the objectives, the study deployed a mixed-methods approach of data collection. This entailed a qualitative method through interviews with key industry informants and a quantitative method whereby a semi-structured survey questionnaire was administered to all key subsectors of the tourism and hospitality industry. The latter was aimed at determining how the sector was impacted upon at micro-level. In addition, the study involved analysis of trends in key tourism indicators from statistical reports from Partner States and other sources. These included indicators such as international tourist arrivals, tourism receipts, tourism jobs, visitors to parks, and hotel occupancy rates. This study establishes that EAC Partner States may have lost international tourism receipts to the tune of US$4.8 billion in the year 2020. About 4.2 million foreign tourists were not able to travel to their preferred EAC destinations. The trickle-down effects have been felt across affiliated industries and the rest of the economy. In terms of impact on employment, it is estimated that tourism jobs in the region dropped from about 4.1 million jobs to 2.2 million jobs, that is, about two million jobs in the tourism sector were lost. There was a significant decline of about 65% of visitors to national parks and therefore impacting negatively on wildlife conservation efforts in the region. The Study also shows that hotels in the region registered average occupancy rates of below 30%, thus affecting their operations significantly including maintaining staff. As part of the study findings, the online survey of tourism businesses in the region has indicated that 28% of the businesses lost their entire projected revenues during the pandemic period, 48% lost 75% of their projected revenue, 12% lost 50% of their projected revenues, and others created new revenue streams (6%), while others cited huge losses due to lack of work. The respondents indicated that 38% reduced staff by more than 50%, 20% reduced staff by below and up to 50%, 30% maintained staff at partial pay, and only 10% maintained all staff at full pay, while the rest (12%) applied measures such as; closing business, laying off workers, reducing working time by 50%, among others. According to key informants, businesses turned to borrowing to fund their running expenditures such as rent and utilities due to reduced operational capital. The fate of the most retrenched employees is a subject that needs a specific scrutiny as generally, with loss of household incomes, many a family resorted to traditional income generating activities such as farming and small-scale businesses whose returns are meagre. The recovery of the sector calls for concerted efforts in the region to forestall protracted tourism-related losses in terms of GDP, export earnings, employment, as well as income and benefits accruing to the wide array of tourism stakeholders. As far as policy interventions recommended are concerned, commentators in the sector seem to all agree on need to sustain certain aspects of the stimulus packages provided by the governments, re-engineer and re-define the tourism products offerings to ensure sustainability, giving more thrust to the domestic and regional markets, leveraging digital technologies in tourism marketing and promotion, entrench the ongoing shift of working from home in the regulatory frameworks, establish an effective tourism crisis management mechanism, roll-out national-wide vaccination drives, and prioritizing tourism employees in the process and review of insurance policies to protect tourism businesses and employees from future crises.
Impact of COVID-19 Measures on Kenya’s Education Sector
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Ng’ang’a, Tabitha Kiriti
The measures taken to combat COVID-19 pandemic were sudden and unexpected. The long closure of schools, though intended to combat COVID-19, may have led to unintended consequences on the education sector. This study analyses the impact of COVID-19 measures on the education sector. Specifically, the paper investigates the impact of the long closure of schools on private and informal community schools; the success of the online/remote learning; the impact of the long closure of schools on teachers, boys and girls; and investigates the learning institution’s level of preparedness to implement COVID-19 protocols when they reopened in October 2020.
Impact of COVID-19 Measures on Kenya’s Health System
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Ng’ang’a, Tabitha Kiriti
The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of COVID-19 measures on the health sector. We have investigated the level of preparedness of Kenya’s health system for COVID-19 pandemic using selected indicators of preparedness, analyzed the level of selected health indicators before COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of COVID-19 measures on these indicators. This study uses secondary data complemented with primary data to meet these objectives. Primary data were collected from an electronic questionnaire which returned a sample of 61 respondents from Machakos, Murang’a, Nyeri, Vihiga, Narok, Nakuru, Kiambu, Nyandarua and Embu. Information was also collected from Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) drawn from Kawangware, Kibra and Mathare informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. Key informants who were mainly health sector policy makers provided critical information regarding the impact of COVID-19 measures.
Impact of COVID-19 on Light Manufacturing in the East African Community
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Walakira, Godfrey
The measures introduced by the EAC governments to control COVID-19 pandemic have managed to supress the spread of infections; and in comparison with the developed countries, the EAC economies have relatively been resilient. The study report provides an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on light manufacturing within the EAC. The methodology mainly relied on two main sources of information, that is, primary and secondary data. Information from national sources and already completed studies relating to the impact of COVID-19 on light manufacturing were used to address the shortcomings of non-response from the primary sources. The key findings of the report are highlighted as follows. The EAC economies of Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda contracted in the second and third quarters of 2020, and the economy of Tanzania grew above 4% in the first three quarters of 2020. The containment measures implemented in the second quarter of 2020, as well as restriction of movements, suppressed aggregate demand for light manufacturing in the early stages of lockdown (from March to June 2020). The easing of restrictions among the EAC countries in August 2020 showed positive signs of rebound in the manufacturing sector, but not to the levels before COVID-19 Pandemic. The negative effects experienced by light manufacturers in the second quarter of 2020 in all the EAC countries were mainly the reduction in production output for manufacturers that were not producing essential items; while for essential products manufacturers, factories continued producing and industries diversified into producing the necessary personal protective equipment {PPE} like protective gears, sanitizers, face masks, and ventilators. Additional effects included financial distress to the manufacturers, liquidity and cash flows to meet their fixed and overhead costs, redundancy in the workforce where some employees were laid off, salary cuts and others went on leave without pay, and disruption of supply chains that limited the companies’ ability to source raw materials and secure markets for their outputs. Company innovation into digitalization and use of e-commerce improved some manufacturer’s distribution networks and uptake of products during the restriction of movements and lockdown. Impact on trade of manufactured products varied, that is, in the early stages of containment measures that were restrictive, export oriented companies saw a decline in their exports and sourcing of raw materials for production remained a challenge. The recovery programmes were developed to revive the most hit sectors of the economy, including manufacturing. The recovery solutions seemed to be about short-term fixes; but for the sustainability of the manufacturing sector, economic measures should look beyond COVID-19. Economic recovery in the manufacturing sector should aim at upgrading businesses to withstand future shocks. The policy options to boost and stimulate the recovery of light manufacturing within the EAC are broadly in the following areas: I. EABC, in coordination with national chapters, should spearhead the development a private sector led EAC recovery/rebound strategy that includes the main private sector needs and requirements for production efficiency. II. To boost productivity and operation efficiency of manufacturing companies, governments should promote and increase uptake of locally manufactured products in government projects and programmes. III. With outstanding private arears with government, governments should process letters of credit to local manufacturers indicating the debt obligation and promise of payment and can act as instruments of financial guarantee to the private sector. IV. Extension of tax relief to the end of June 2021 and governments should fast track clearance of VAT refunds to increase manufacturers’ liquidity and cash flows. V. The private sector should engage in the negotiations of eliminating the existing non-tariff barriers (NTBs); EABC, in coordination with national chapters, should engage at bilateral private to private level to identify and coordinate with their respective governments the elimination mechanism. VI. With the new variants of COVID-19 mutating in the world, the crisis continues with some countries entering the third wave, while in EAC, the second wave is expected. EAC manufacturing companies must navigate through by implementing risk mitigation strategies to minimize the looming recessions and slowdowns that may result from second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Impact of COVID-19 on Trade, Peace and Health System in South Sudan
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Malish, John Peter
South Sudan is experiencing exponential rise in COVID-19 cases. The country is already struggling with the negative shock of the pandemic coupled with the climate shock, economic decline, political transition and crash in global oil prices that has put the economy in much deeper crisis than never before. COVID-19 adds to convergence of multiple crises that has further exacerbated the political and economic situation. Besides the trade sector shock, the pandemic has affected genuine progress in the peace process in the country. The onset of COVID-19 pandemic halfway into the formation of the new transitional government largely contributed to delayed completion of critical peace activities. Similarly, the pandemic increased pressure on the weak health system in South Sudan. The country’s health system is mainly funded and serviced by donors and humanitarian agencies with limited government investment and service provision. The pandemic shifted the focus of many donors from combating deadly diseases such as malaria, diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection that threaten public health to COVID-19 response. This paper explores the pandemic impact on the trade sector with specific focus on the cross-border trade, and also its underlying effect on the underfunded and fragile health system and fluid peace process in South Sudan. The research is grounded on the overall objective to examine the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and government response mechanisms on trade, health system and peace process in South Sudan. The research was commissioned by the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) to assess the impact of COVID-19 pandemic in the socioeconomic, public health, and political transition in the region. The study used secondary research method that focused on qualitative and quantitative analysis of available data from government entities and humanitarian partners. Secondary data on trade, revenue and government policies were accessed from the government institutions. Relevant literature and reports by humanitarian agencies, including international NGOs, UN agencies and think tanks were reviewed.
Impact of COVID-19 on Transport and Logistics Sector in East Africa
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) FEAFFA and Shippers Council of East Africa
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic presented EAC Partner States with monumental challenges that affected different sectors of their economy. As a response, the Partner States instituted measures to mitigate the spread of the virus while, at the same time, ensuring that such measures did not adversely affect the economic wellbeing of their citizens. Specific measures were instituted addressing the transport and logistics sector in the region. These measures, however, affected the operations of the sector. This report presents findings of the study that sought to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 on the transport and logistics sector in East Africa. The study addressed five specific objectives: 1. To provide an inventory of the key containment measures instituted by the EAC Partner States to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the transport and logistics sector. 2. To identify and enumerate operational challenges faced by transport and logistics industry stakeholders at the height of the pandemic in the EAC region. 3. To estimate the increase in time, cost, and additional complexities encountered in clearing and forwarding cargo during the pandemic in the region. 4. To establish gaps in the interventions by the EAC Partner States in ensuring the continued flow of cargo across borders during the COVID-19 pandemic. 5. To propose operational and policy measures that could be instituted to make COVID-19 and future pandemic responses. To address the objectives of this study, a descriptive research design was adopted. The study focused on a population that comprised of various stakeholders in the transport and logistics sector, including shippers, transporters, and clearing and forwarding agents. In terms of the geographical scope, the study focused on key players within the transport and logistics sector operating and using the Northern and Central Corridors for movement of cargo and trade facilitation. The study covers the period between March 2020 and March 2021. Both probability and non-probability techniques were used. Stratified random sampling technique was used to identify respondents for an online survey while judgemental sampling was used in identifying the sector experts for interviews and focus group discussions.
Impact of COVID-19 on Agriculture and Food Security in the East African Community
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Kayiira, Duncan
This report presents findings on the impact of COVID-19 on agriculture and food security in the East African Community (EAC). The report examines the range of containment measures adopted, their effectiveness and notable limitations as would guide choice of areas of policy convergence in an effort to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on agriculture and food security in the EAC.
Impact of COVID-19 on Rwanda’s Health Sector
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-14) Bigirimana, Noella; Rwagasore, Edson; Condo, Jeanine
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) with a strong recommendation for countries to take appropriate measures to interrupt virus spread. By 11 March 2020, the WHO had declared COVID-19 as a global pandemic with the number of cases estimated at 118,319, and the virus had expanded to 114 countries with ripple effects on every aspect of human life. The COVID-19 burden has been asymmetrically distributed. Although the infection and death rates in Africa did not reach the inflection points that had been predicted, there was unprecedented pressure on the public health systems in many African countries and far-reaching socioeconomic implications which may trigger major setbacks for years to come. Many African countries deployed the national budget to support in mitigating the health and economic crisis. Rwanda is the focus in the current report and evaluated as an illustrative example of a country which stemmed the spread of COVID-19 with early measures, while leveraging previous investments in the healthcare system and outbreak preparedness. This report seeks to: document the interventions put in place to mitigate COVID-19 transmission, including ongoing vaccination; examine the impact of COVID-19 on health outcomes; and describe interventions to mitigate socioeconomic impact. The report uses historical data, primary data, review of government and international reports, as well as published papers. The historical data covered two years before the onset of COVID-19 pandemic until December 2020 to reflect on any potential change in the use of key health services. Global reports are used to provide context for the outbreak preparedness. Key informant interviews were used to triangulate information collected with perspectives from policy makers, health implementers, academics, members of the National COVID-19 Task Force, and the general population as the consumers of services. The national information health systems were used to collate data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This involved the extraction of key routine services data (vaccination, ANC, and outpatients’ records), from June 2018 to December 2020 to understand any disruption of the use of health services. Secondary data analysis was conducted to determine positivity rate, demographic characteristics and case fatality rate. Disease-specific HMIS countrywide data was analysed to determine trend of hospital consultation of major chronic diseases and mortality between June 2018 to December 2020 and compare two critical periods (before and after COVID-19 onset) to assess any existence of disruption of services and increase in number of mortalities as a result of COVID-19 pandemic. In Rwanda, the first case was confirmed on 14 March 2020, and was detected through preparedness and response measures that had been deployed in late January. The National Steering Committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, is in charge of overall management, leadership, mobilizing, and coordinating resources to fight COVID-19 and its socioeconomic consequences. A National COVID-19 Task Force was activated to run daily activities and report to the National Steering Committee. The establishment of the command post was coordinated by the Government of Rwanda (GoR), in collaboration with bilateral and multilateral partners in the country, which guided the timely implementation and monitoring of public health and policy measures. A total of 11,032 cases were reported between 14 March 2020 and 17 January 2021. During this period, the epidemic in Rwanda progressed through four phases which comprise of: first phase which was characterized by a stable period with case either imported or linked to imported cases; it was followed by phase two characterized by the occurrence of the first clusters of community transmission identified on 31 May 2020 in the district bordering the Republic Democratic of Congo (DRC) with peaks of 200 cases daily, with positivity rate reaching 1.1%. The third phase was characterized by drop of cases with decreased number of daily confirmed cases and low case fatality rate; while in the last and fourth phase, started in December 2020, the number of cases and case fatality rate increased compared to the previous phases, the percentage positivity of tests tripled (3.4% vs ~1.0%), and the average number of daily cases reported has more than quintupled (124 vs 24). The majority of positive cases were male (64%) compared to 36% female. Among the 142 deaths recorded as of 17 January 2021, there were 102 (72%) male compared to 40 (28%) female. As implementation strategies, Rwanda sought to limit the spread of the virus through non-pharmaceutical public health to prevent community spread including a six-week lockdown across the country in March 2020, in addition to maintaining physical distancing and hygiene measures. The restrictions also included closure of non-essential businesses, school and church closures, limitations on intra- and inter regional transport, which aimed to contain the pandemic and protect the healthcare systems from being overwhelmed with demand from COVID-19 and other essential services. The national response focused on community surveillance, increased testing and developed targeted containment measures with intermittent lockdowns during sharp increases of cases and deaths. The country rolled out the first COVID-19 vaccination campaign on 5 March 2021 with Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca vaccines received through the international vaccine cooperative, COVAX Facility. This report provides recommendations for policy makers in the context of COVID-19 response in Rwanda. These recommendations aim at strengthening epidemic preparedness and response, based on lessons from the COVID-19 crisis in the country and region. Such discussions are particularly important given the risk of a second wave of infections, and the constant threat of other outbreaks.
Macro-Economic Effects of COVID-19 on the EAC Economies
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Okumu, Ibrahim Mike
This paper undertook an exploratory study of the effects of COVID-19 on the economies of the East African Community (EAC) Partner States, and the respective policy choices undertaken by each Partner State. The rationale of the study was to identify the areas of policy convergence in the midst of COVID-19 for purposes of streamlining EAC regional-wide policy choice in an effort to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. Macroeconomic indicators were selected from the financial, real, monetary, external, and fiscal sectors. The study used secondary data collected from the World Development Indicators, central banks of the respective Partner States, statistics agencies of the respective Partner States, and treasury offices of the respective Partner States. Our findings indicate that: COVID-19 resulted in a contraction of real GDP growth and inflationary pressure, especially in the transport sector; the financial sector remained resilient to COVID-19 although profitability tapered off; demand for credit shrunk as economies adopted COVID-19 containment measures; international trade was severely hampered although the trade deficit persisted; exchange rate depreciation pressure was apparent across the EAC, revenue shortfall has persisted through the COVID-19 life span; and EAC Partner States resorted to public debt in an endeavour to fill the persistent revenue shortfall throughout the COVID-19 lifespan in an effort stimulate their respective economies. Across the EAC Partner States, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies with degrees of intensity and extensiveness across the trading bloc were adopted in an attempt to mitigate the distortionary impact of COVID-19. EAC Partner State with intensive and extensive monetary and fiscal policy regimes equally adopted aggressive COVID-19 containment measures.
State of the EAC Health Sector Amidst the COVID-19 Crisis
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-25) Bigirimana, Noella; Rwagasore, Edson; Condo, Jeanine
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic with recommendations for countries to take appropriate measures to eliminate virus spread. As the pandemic continues to evolve, an estimated 156,496,592 confirmed cases and 3,264,143 deaths have been reported in more than 220 countries and territories (WHO, 2021). The COVID-19 disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus is highly transmissible from person to person, with a reproduction number, Ro, (number of additional cases resulting from initial case) estimated between 1.6 and 2.4 (Aylward & Liang, 2020). The COVID-19 burden has been asymmetrically distributed, with the Americas accounting for the greatest proportion of reported new cases, followed by Europe, South-East Asia, and Eastern Mediterranean. Africa and Western Pacific are the least affected regions (Aylward & Liang, 2020). The East African region has crossed the first year since the first cases were reported in March 2020. The region has recorded an estimated 7.3% of the cases and 4.4% of deaths reported in Africa. As of 8 May 2021, there were 246,427 confirmed COVID-19 cases across EAC countries, and among them 54,278 (22%) were active cases. There were 3,709 reported deaths in the region (EAC, 2021). Based on available records, Kenya has recorded the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the EAC region at 163,238 (66.2%), followed by Uganda at 42,308 (17.1%), Rwanda at 25,586 (10.4%), South Sudan at 10,637 (4.3%), and Burundi at 4,149 (1.7%). Tanzania’s last report on 29 April 2020 indicated 509 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 21 deaths (EAC, 2021). These moderately low numbers, compared to other regions, could be partially attributed to Africa’s young population age structure, potentially underreporting of events and low testing rates. Another factor, however, is the containment measures adopted by several EAC member states in order to mitigate the spread. The first case in the East African region was reported on 13 March 2020 in Kenya, followed by initial case reports in other EAC states the same week. The approach by most countries was to put in place enhanced measures to flatten the curve of COVID-19 transmission, including lockdown restrictions, immediate isolation of confirmed cases, quarantining close contacts of confirmed cases, contact tracing, quarantining travellers, mandatory use of face masks, and expanding testing and treatment capacities. As the virus continued to spread, EAC countries took different approaches to reducing the incidence of the pandemic.
Status and Dynamics of Gender Mainstreaming in East Africa Community COVID-19 Social and Economic Response Policies, Strategies and Interventions
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Maloiy, Lanoi; Wawire, Violet
COVID-19 has had serious implications globally for social, economic areas and public health. Equally, the pandemic has proved quite challenging to many countries in East Africa. Recognizing that swift and decisive responses to the pandemic are needed across East Africa, the African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) through a grant from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) and in collaboration with East African private sector apex organizations and the East African Community (EAC) Secretariat launched this project to assist East African governments coordinate their response to the COVID-19 pandemic and formulate appropriate economic recovery strategies and plans. To do this, there is need to generate knowledge devoted to advising policy makers to create awareness and sensitize governments on the need to mainstream gender at all levels of policy formulation and action across EAC member countries during the COVID-19 crisis. AERC seeks to generate rigorous and robust analytical policy research papers assessing the impact of COVID-19 crisis on gender mainstreaming across countries in East Africa. It is against this background that this study is set. The study aims to examine the status of women in the East African Community with a view to comprehending how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected women, and further investigate what policies and interventions have been instituted to address gender issues emerging from the pandemic, identifying gender gaps in policies, and proposing new perspectives for reviewing existing gender policies and interventions to address these gaps. A desk review and gender analysis was undertaken of the six (6) EAC countries, with particular focus on the status of women. Stakeholder mapping was also undertaken. Those mapped were Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) involved in gender issues in the EAC, and particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Key informant interviews were undertaken from the selected stakeholders and policy analysis on gender issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in the EAC done. Five stakeholder/policy analysts were interviewed on policy gaps and possible interventions for women around COVID-19 generated. The key findings from the gender analysis and key informant interviews are discussed in terms of the areas of education, health, land ownership, career and labour market followed by representation and public decision-making. Overall, in all five thematic areas, there is no gender responsiveness amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Education: Prior to COVID-19, access to education and retention of girls in school was problematic across the EAC countries. This poor retention and access to education has been exacerbated by school closures due to COVID-19. Additionally, girls are likely to engage in transactional sex due to financial constraints, thus exposing themselves to HIV/AIDS and unplanned pregnancies that will negatively impact on educational completion rates. Health: Women in all the EAC countries have low decision-making power in sexual relationships. The results indicate that there is low uptake of contraceptives particularly in rural areas. Because women have little negotiation ability in their relationships, they may not be able to use contraceptives and condoms to prevent sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and unplanned pregnancies. Due to women’s low status in relationships, they may also be unable to refuse sexual contact with male partners even if the man has not been taking measures against COVID-19, therefore exposing themselves to coronavirus. Women’s health can be exacerbated by most EAC governments placing resources into COVID-19 initiatives in lieu of women’s health. If unchecked, such prioritization may reverse any gains made on women’s health. Quarantine centres are also not set up in a gender sensitive way, and there is lack of sanitary items for women confined in these centres. This is an issue that needs to be addressed. Land ownership: Across the six EAC countries, it was found that most women do not own and control land. This is the case even in Rwanda where women are the majority in Parliament. This lack of ownership also leaves women vulnerable to evictions or land grabbing in case of death of a spouse or male relative. Career and labour market: Men still dominate formal employment even in Rwanda where women have significant representation in Parliament. Women were largely found working at home or in the informal sector. These women in the informal sector are likely to suffer significant financial losses. Women cross border traders suffer the risk of assault, theft and rape from the use of illegal routes during the pandemic. Representation and public decision-making: Apart from Rwanda, women in all the other five EAC countries are under-represented in public decision-making. This lack of representation has an implication in COVID-19 responses. Policies and decisions made around funding, relief measures and other core legislative acts are done without a gender lens.
Technology as an Enabler for Addressing the COVID-19 Challenges in the East African Community
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-08) Zgovu, Evious Kingswell
COVID-19 is a highly contagious and deadly disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus which is transmitted through respiratory droplets containing the virus. Governments around the world, including the East African Community (EAC), put in place public health emergency measures such as restriction or ban of non-essential face-to-face interactions in confined spaces, curfews, and lockdowns to contain and control the spread of the virus. These measures severely disrupted normal human life activities leaving countries and communities with the huge challenges of going about normal life, including in production and consumption of goods and services in public health, education, international and domestic trade, social interactions and networking, among others. Where human physical presence and face-to-face interactions can be minimized or avoided through, for example, the application of technology, economic and social activities has been restored and a semblance of normality regained. Thus, the pandemic has brought technology into greater prominence as a vehicle for attaining near-normality in social, economic and other life activities, and through that, support resilience and recovery from the challenges caused by the pandemic. The objective of this study was to examine the role played by technology in addressing the challenges to normal life caused by the pandemic in the EAC, and contribute to policy on increasing the role of technology application for sustainable economic growth and development in the region. The specific objectives include examining, in the context of the EAC, the state of play of factors that determine technology inclusion and adoption, examples of technology solutions availed to address the challenges caused by the pandemic, and policy implications for promoting technology adoption and application to support recovery and greater economic prosperity in the EAC. The primary focus of the work here is on the innovative ways in which technology has been used in the EAC to try to get on with life as normal during the pandemic, rather than try to delve into the broad spectrum of roles and application of technology, and/or all the myriad of issues surrounding technology development in the region. Due to international travel restrictions, the study was conducted offsite, primarily during November2020-December 2020 which coincided with the peak of a raging second wave of the pandemic in some of the EAC Partner States. Updates to data and information collected beyond December 2020 have been made where feasible but the main thrust of the information and data remain the primary period mentioned.

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