Modelling the Inflation Process in Nigeria
Loading...
Files
Date
2008-08-02
Authors
Olusanya E. Olubusoye
Rasheed Oyaromade
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AERC
Abstract
This study is motivated by the conviction that inflation entails sizeable economic and
social costs, and controlling it is one of the prerequisites for achieving a sustainable
economic growth. The study analyses the main sources of fluctuations in inflation in
Nigeria. Using the framework of error correction mechanism, it was found that the
lagged CPI, expected inflation, petroleum prices and real exchange rate significantly
propagate the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria. The level of output was found
to be insignificant in the parsimonious error correction model. Surprisingly, the coefficient
of the lagged value of money supply was found to be negative and significant only at the
10% level. One of the major implications of this result is that efforts of the monetary
regulating authorities to stabilize the domestic prices would continuously be disrupted
by volatility in the international price of crude oil.
Description
HG 1381 .O465 2008
Keywords
Inflation (Finance) - Nigeria _ econometric Models , Inflation (Finance) - Nigeria _ econometric Models