Climate Change and Agricultural Trade in sub-Saharan Africa
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Date
2021-11-15
Authors
Mahof, Godfrey
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
African Economic Research Consortium
Abstract
Climate change is a threat to the agricultural sector and food security of many
countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, changes in climate across the
continent are not expected to be consistent as some countries will experience
huge declines in rainfall and increases in temperature. This implies that changes
in agricultural productivity due to climate change will not be uniform and this is
likely to affect trade patterns on the continent. Using a combination of climate
change scenarios from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations’ Global Agro-Ecological Zones (FAO-GAEZ), cereals production data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation’s FAOSTAT, and
trade data from the United Nation’s UN Comtrade database, this study explores the
impact of climate change on agricultural trade, particularly trade in major cereals,
within SSA. Results show that by the 2050s, climate change will lead to most countries
experiencing an increase in their need to import cereals. However, some countries such
as Burundi, Tanzania and Zambia could have the potential to increase their exports.
This suggests that trade flows are likely to be important in strengthening the resilience
of African food systems from shocks emanating from climate change. For example,
countries in East Africa such as Tanzania could export maize to countries in Southern
Africa that could experience maize deficits. Delivering food from surplus to deficit
areas is likely to be important in the future, hence the need to improve the movement
of food products across borders. Policies to be adopted may include improving trade
facilitation, reducing intra-SSA tariffs, avoiding trade policy uncertainty, removing
export bans, and encouraging the production of cereal crops where countries have
gained a comparative advantage