COVARIANT SHOCKS AND THEIR MARGINAL EFFECTS ON HOUSEHOLD COPING STRATEGIES IN UGANDA
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Date
2017-11-03
Authors
Bberinya, HILARY
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
UNIVERSITY OF MAKERERE
Abstract
This study analyzed covariant shocks and their marginal effects on household coping strategies
in Uganda. Household level data contained in the Uganda National Household Survey
(2005/2006) by Uganda Bureau of Statistics was used. The dependent variable was coping
strategies with options; used assets, used savings, reduced family expenditure, widened
employment, sought help, borrowed and other strategies. The independent variables were;
drought, floods/hailstorm, pest attack, bad seed quality, livestock epidemics and other shocks.
Location, region, gender, age, household size, economic status and education were used as
control variables. Analysis was carried out using SPSS 12 and STATA 12 that generated
preliminary descriptive statistics, variable cross tabulations, chi-square and multinomial logistic
results. Three models were estimated to find out the effect of covariant shocks and their marginal
effects on coping strategies. Out of the total number of 7421 respondents, 4885 (65.8%) reported
to have faced at least one shock. Out of six shocks, drought was the largest specific shock that
affected most respondents followed by; floods, livestock epidemics and a combination of other
shocks combined.
Based on the results of the cross tabulation and chi-square test, the conclusion is that
there were significant differences in reporting shocks by; location, region, gender, household
size and economic status but no significant difference in reporting shocks according to education
status. For the first choice strategy, there were significant differences in the choice of strategies
between gender, location, region, household size, economic status; but no significant difference
between education status. The choice of coping strategies was significantly different for various
shocks. For the second choice strategy, there were significant differences in the choice of
strategies based on, region, household size, economic status and location; but no significant
difference between male and female. For the third choice strategy, there were no significant
differences in the choice of strategies. Households were more likely to use savings in face of
drought, floods/hailstorms, pest attacks, bad seed quality and other shocks. Male headed
households were more likely to widen employment compared to use of savings than females.
Use of savings to cope in face of shocks has policy implications in relation to the need to raise
household savings.
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Keywords
House