Climate Change

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Legumes for Households Food Security in Zimbabwe's Semi-Arid Areas - Implications Child Nutrition
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2020-01) Foti, Richard; Chivheya, Renias; Mwanza, Estelle
Food and nutrition security have become an increasingly important area of policy debate in developing countries. Children in the semi-arid areas of Africa are most vulnerable because of the poor socio-economic status of their parents especially their mothers. In Zimbabwe, frequent droughts, the decreasing performance of the agricultural sector since the onset of the land reform program and severe economic underperformance have resulted in high levels of child malnutrition. Because legumes are protein and calorie rich, are cheap to produce (do not require heavy input use), are drought resistant and increase soil fertility through biological nitrogen fixation, they have often been considered as the best cropping innovation for increasing food and nutrition security for the most vulnerable children in the country. However, no comprehensive studies have been carried out in the country to estimate and ascertain this contribution. In this study, using household farming data from the Department of Agricultural and Extension Services (AGRITEX) and from community level health institutions, a two stage instrumental variable probit model was developed to establish the factors affecting the level of legume production at farm level and to estimate the contribution of legume cultivation to child nutrition in Zimbabwe. Results from the study show a significant positive increase in the chances of a household not having a malnourished child as the level of legume cultivation increases. By instrumenting legume production levels by the aggregated quantity of legume seed available for planting, the study found that a 1Kg increase in the quantity of legume seed cultivated was found to have an 11.6% marginal increase in the chances of a household not having a malnourished child. The results, backed by focus group discussions and key informant interviews also show that, lack of legume producing inputs especially seed and land heavily constrain the production of legumes at a larger scale. Formal education and agricultural extension (both government and private sector provided) generally discourage legume cultivation in favour of livestock and other crops. Markets were found to be week in driving legume production because legume markets are not well developed and organised in the study areas. Policies that seek to achieve better child nutrition through legumes should aim to increase availability of legume production inputs especially seed and land to women and to sensitize men, extension workers and school agricultural education curriculum developers on the value of legumes in reducing child malnutrition. Also, women empowerment projects that focus on agricultural resource allocation between men and women have a potential to improve legume production and thus child nutrition. Legume production can be stimulated by the creation and development of legume markets through a value chain system.
Climate Change and Migration in West African Coastal Zones
(2021-09) Mbaye, Ahmadou Aly; Gueye, Adama; Gueye, Fatou; Sarr, Khady Yama; Gueye, Fama
Global trends in migration show a predominance of internal over external flows. The African continent is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change due to its higher levels of exposure and its scarcer financial resources for adaptation. Therefore, climate change presents in Africa some peculiar challenges to livelihoods, and security. In this paper, we assess the climate-induced migration in African coastal zones, accounting for many different factors such as conflict, demography, social networks, economic opportunities, and geographical factors such as the terrain. We also provide a critical review of major strands of models of climate-induced migration, namely agent-based models, choice-centred models, gravity model, and household allocation models. The most used data in climate change analyses are also analyzed.
Heterogeneity in Migration Responses to Climate Shocks: Evidence from Madagascar
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-23) Marchetta, Francesca; Sahn, David; Tiberti, Luca; Dufour, Johany
We analyse the impact of climate events on migration among a cohort of young adults residing in rural Madagascar. We find a strong negative impact of drought on the decision of youth to migrate in the year after the adverse weather shock. Household assets and access to savings institutions attenuate this impact, consistent with the notion that wealth and savings cushion the blow of the shock on the resources required to finance migration. We also find that, households that report more social connections outside their villages are more likely to have their young adult members migrate. Our findings suggest that the liquidity constraints from climate shocks that prevent youth migration are more binding for young women who migrate largely for reasons of marriage and education. Males, in contrast, are more likely to migrate in search of employment, which often has higher economic returns than migration motivated by marriage and education. These factors likely explain why drought deters the migration of young women, but not so for young men who still choose to migrate in search of a job.
Poverty and Exposure to Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-23) Fisker, Peter; Tarp, Finn
This study provides a framework for examining the effects of climate change on poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. It presents and combines the most recent data on poverty and climate projections at the subnational level, and finds that, i) current levels of poverty and current climate are not correlated in any meaningful way, ii) poorer districts are exposed to larger projected increases in temperatures and precipitation than richer areas when looking at within-country variation. While this exposure will likely amplify the effects of climate change on poverty, overall vulnerability to climate change decreases through poverty reduction.
Climate Instability and Agricultural Productivity in Africa: Cross-Country Evidence
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-28) Ebeke, Christian; Mireille, Ntsama Etoundi
This paper analyzes the impact of rainfall instability on crop yield in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using a large panel of African countries over a sufficiently long period and relying on a very large dataset assembled for the agricultural sector in Africa, the paper tests whether agricultural research and development, and modern infrastructure provide such dampening effects in a context of rising climate instability and stagnating farm productivity in Africa. The results demonstrate a key and robust effect of greater investments in agricultural science and technology in dampening the effect on the link between rainfall instability on crop yield volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Effort should therefore be on boosting the availability of researchers specialized in agricultural science and technology and on agricultural infrastructure such as irrigation to help farmers cope better with the increased risks stemming from global warming.
Strategic Environmental Commitment and Climate Change in Africa: Evidence on Mining and Deforestation
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-28) Azomahou, Théophile T.; Ouédraogo, Mahamady
This paper addresses two issues on the link between mining, deforestation and environmental policy in Africa using a panel data of 35 African countries spanning over 2001-2017. First, we study the relationship between mining and deforestation. Our findings suggest that mining increases deforestation while environmental policy contributes to reduce deforestation in mineral resource-rich countries. An increase in mineral rent by a one-point percentage of GDP leads to forest loss of about 50 km2 . Moreover, regional economic community has heterogeneous effects on deforestation consistent with the coordination policies. Second, we test the implication of these results for uncoordinated environmental policies using two measures: a de jure and a de facto environmental policy. Our results support that countries adopt a strategic behavior in response to the environmental policy of their neighbors. A 1% increase in neighbors’ environmental commitment increases one’s own environmental commitment by 0.3% and 0.8% for de jure and de facto respectively. We document that this strategic behavior leads to a race to the top for de jure environmental policy and a race to the bottom de facto environmental policy. As African countries increasingly engage in de jure environmental enforcement, their de facto efforts to mitigate climate change are slackening.
Climate Change and Migration in West African Coastal Zones
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-28) Mbaye, Ahmadou Aly; Gueye, Adama; Gueye, Fatou; Sarr, Khady Yama; Gueye, Fama
Global trends in migration show a predominance of internal over external flows. The African continent is the world’s most vulnerable region to climate change due to its higher levels of exposure and its scarcer financial resources for adaptation. Therefore, climate change presents in Africa some peculiar challenges to livelihoods, and security. In this paper, we assess the climate-induced migration in African coastal zones, accounting for many different factors such as conflict, demography, social networks, economic opportunities, and geographical factors such as the terrain. We also provide a critical review of major strands of models of climate-induced migration, namely agent-based models, choice-centred models, gravity model, and household allocation models. The most used data in climate change analyses are also analyzed.
Implications of Climate Mitigation Measures for Poverty and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Framework for Multiple Country Research Study
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-28) Hassan, Rashid Mekki; Mabugu, Ramos
This research report developed a framework for studying the implications of climate mitigation measures for poverty and inequality (P&I) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The framework paper undertook a comprehensive survey of relevant literature to examine how much attention has been given in climate mitigation science and policy analysis to aspects of P&I. The paper then proposed an analytical framework and empirical methodology for conducting multi-country investigations of the P&I implications of the various climate mitigation policy measures introduced or proposed at national and global scales. The paper mapped the main channels through which climate mitigation measures get transmitted or mediated to P&I impacts. Mediation analysis enables identification of appropriate methods to measure and evaluate the merits of alternative mitigation policy measures. Approaches that can be used to model and quantify the impacts of climate mitigation on P&I were presented. The paper concluded with proposing datasets to use and suggesting a pilot case studies’ approach that can be followed. To guide selection of countries to conduct studies that will be implementing the analytical framework and empirical methods proposed, the paper examined the extent to which SSA countries have participated in global and regional climate mitigation initiatives. The results indicate that while all countries in SSA ratified major climate mitigation agreements, the degree of participation varies significantly between the different protocols. The largest amount of funding to mitigation in SSA came from the International Emissions Trading instruments, exceeding US$ 57 billion in 2018. The results obtained from implementing the framework for the selected countries are expected to inform the design of climate mitigation measures that aim to maximize co-benefits and avoid negative P&I outcomes.
Mitigating Climate Change through Sustainable Technology Adoption: Insights from Cookstove Interventions
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-28) Alem, Yonas
Deforestation and burning of forest products to meet cooking needs massively contribute to global warming. In order to reduce the biomass fuel consumption of households in developing countries, various improved cookstove (ICS) interventions were implemented by governments, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders in the past decades. This paper synthesizes the impact evaluation literature on the adoption and impact of ICS, and their role in improving household welfare, while reducing the pressure on forest resources and mitigating emission of carbon dioxide (CO2). The paper points out five important knowledge gaps, which future research may address. First, more research is needed on the effectiveness of different mechanisms that address liquidity constraints, such as stove-for-work programmes, which some research has already shown are effective in relaxing households’ liquidity constraints to adopt ICS. Second, in order to improve reliability of estimates of the impact of ICS, studies should be guided by proper impact evaluation protocols, such as determining sample size using statistical power analysis. Third, more research is needed on the effects of ICS beyond fuel and time saving, such as time allocation and wellbeing of women. Fourth, urban households are under-represented in stove studies, but more studies on urban households are needed, because they consume substantial amounts of biomass fuel, most importantly charcoal. Finally, and most importantly, all existing stove studies exclusively focus on households. Micro, small and medium-scale enterprises in Africa consume nearly half of the biomass fuel consumed in the continent. Experimental work on firm energy use behaviour and transition to cleaner sources is urgently needed. Otherwise, reduction in biomass fuel use by households may be compensated by increased biomass use by firms.
Climate Variability and Urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa: Mitigating the Effects on Economic Growth
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-09-30) Dia, Kamgnia Bernadette; Beaudelaire, Djezou Wadjamsse
This study sought to analyze the interactions between climate variability, urbanization, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, it analyzed the extent to which climate variability could maintain the interaction between economic growth and urbanization a virtuous one. An empirical strategy combining a literature review, a descriptive analysis, and a PSTR model, was designed to achieve the specified objectives. More specifically, the PSTR model was estimated using a panel data of 32 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1990-2018 to obtain some interesting findings. The literature review pointed to several research avenues, of which: i) multivariate analyses of economic growth, urbanization, and climate variability; (ii) measurement challenges with urbanization and climate change; and (iii) modelling approaches. Quantitative results indicated that in Sub-Saharan Africa, urbanization only has a positive effect on economic growth if the temperature variability is below the threshold of - 0.4501, while the average temperature variability is around 0.5470.
Addressing the Challenges of Sustainable Electrification in Africa through Comprehensive Impact Evaluations
(African Economic Research Consortium, 2021-10-04) Muchapondwa, Edwin; Jeuland, Marc; Shimeles, Abebe
Access to electricity leads to overall economic growth through improved agricultural and firm productivity, public service delivery, and enhanced household investment in human capital, net income, and general quality of life. Yet more than 540 million people in Africa still lack electricity today, and many more suffer from unreliable power supply. The considerable untapped renewable energy potential, and the associated rapid reductions in cost, make sustainable and decentralized electricity service a promising option for the continent, for transforming these deficits into opportunities. However, knowledge on how to finance and implement new models of electrification remains limited, because the results from prior impact evaluations are inconclusive and do not cover all relevant interventions or dimensions. Following a review of policy and research issues, we propose that five essential principles should guide future research efforts in this domain: (i) use of mixed/multi methods that adequately cover the varied implications of electricity access, (ii) choice of econometric methods that provide more credible estimates of impacts, (iii) use and combinations of more informative treatment data, (iv) careful theorizing and consideration of the potential for heterogeneous treatment effects, and (v) accounting for effects from treatments of different magnitudes. We demonstrate the last three of these with an illustrative application of the World Bank Multi-Tier Framework data for Kenya. New insights emerge as research moves from a focus on average treatment effects to heterogeneous and multi-valued treatment effects. Notably, the impacts of electrification may depend on the extent to which households and other economic agents can make complementary investments to benefit from an electricity connection. Thus, electrification may need to be combined with complementary programmes, for example, those that make appliances more accessible and affordable. A greater focus on holistic impact evaluation approaches is needed to make economic research on sustainable electrification more informative and policy-relevant.

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