An Empirical Analysis of the Interaction between Monetary Policy and Commercial Bank Lending in Nigeria
Emekaraonye, Chukwunenye Ferguson
Dick, Emmanuel Ikechukwu
African Economic Research Consortium
Using a recursive structural vector autoregressive model and quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2019Q4, this study examines the transmission mechanism from monetary policy instruments, specifically the monetary policy rate, base money and nominal exchange rate, to outcome variables (prices and credit to the private sector) in Nigeria. The data showed structural breaks in 2004Q2, 2009Q3 and 2014Q3, which coincided with the 2004 banking consolidation, the 2009 Sanusi-led regulatory measures and the appointment of Godwin Emefiele as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2014. Accordingly, policy instrument transmission tests were conducted along three scenarios – 2004, 2009 and 2014 – to evaluate the changes that might have been imposed on the policy transmission mechanism by the reforms. Under the 2004 consolidation scenario, the reforms strengthened only the interest rate anchor (monetary policy rate), causing it to be effective in influencing credit to the private sector (CPS). Innovations in other monetary policy instruments led to insignificant responses in the outcome variables. Even base money, which previously impacted both prices and credit to the private sector, became insignificant and ineffective after 2004. Sanusi’s regime did not strengthen the impact of any of the monetary policy instruments on prices and credit to the private sector. Base money, which impacted outcome variables in some periods before 2009, became insignificant thereafter.Similarly, the 2014 development and sectoral support programmes under Emefiele also did not strengthen monetary policy instruments. Overall, the study affirms the position that monetary policy reforms may not always strengthen policy instruments to regulate or influence prices and credit to the private sector, especially when the transmission is indirect.