POVERTY DYNAMICS IN KAGERA REGION – 1991-2010
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Date
2016-10-06
Authors
Pantaleo, Innocent Muganyizi
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
This study examines the dynamics of poverty in Kagera Region during 1991-2010
period using the Kagera Health and Demographic Survey panel data. First, the study
decomposes the Kagera headcount poverty index into growth, inequality and rural/urban
population shift effects using Son (2003) approach. The results show population shifts
was pro-poor and growth led to reduction of poverty within the region. These results
imply that there is need for pro-poor employment creation strategies in urban areas and
increased productivity in rural areas. Second, employing the fixed effects model and
dynamic panel data estimators and borrowing from Ravallion (1988) approach, the study
examines the dynamics of household‘s consumption and vulnerability. The dynamic
panel data estimators show that Life Cycle Hypothesis for consumption smoothing does
not hold, whereas the Ravallion (1988) approach show that risk to poverty is less for the
1991 poverty line and high for 2010 poverty line. Thus, pro-poor farming approaches
and earmarking resources for consumption stabilization interventions are needed. Lastly,
the study examines a household‘s duration in poverty and factors accounting for falling
into or moving out of poverty. The non- parametric and semi-parametric discrete data
spell approaches are employed. The non-parametric results show that poverty is
transitory, and that male-headed households have a higher likelihood of exiting poverty
than female-headed ones. The duration variables have significant positive effect for
exiting poverty. In this regard, policy may entail enhancing social networks and
improving the balance in resource distribution and allocation between sexes.