An assessment of South Africa’s non-genetically modified maize export potential
Date
2020-02
Authors
Mawasha, Joseph Leshasha
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Abstract
The study endeavoured to determine South Africa’s export potential in non-genetically
modified maize markets using a three pronged methodological approach. The Genetically
Modified (GM) status of South African maize has been observed as a challenge restraining the
extent of South Africa's maize exports to major maize importing markets. The study thus sought
to quantify South Africa's maize export potential to non-GM maize markets. Firstly, the study
identified South Africa’s non-GM maize markets using a growth share matrix. Secondly, South
Africa’s non-GM maize export markets with high trade potential were identified using an
Indicative Potential analysis. A gravity model was then used to determine potential export
markets with trade stimulating and restraining effects.
The study finds that Italy, Angola, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Greece, Zambia and Austria
exhibited the highest trade potential among the identified potential non-GM maize markets.
Based on the three pronged approach employed by the study, it was concluded that despite the
limited scope for non-GM maize market penetration, there are markets which displayed greater
potential for expansion as they were part of the most desirable markets, exhibited high trade
potential and had trade stimulating effects. These markets include; Italy, Zimbabwe, Kenya
and Angola. It was recommended that farmers who choose to engage in large scale non-GM
maize production should thus be guided by the forces of demand and supply in the non-GM
maize export market and react to favourable opportunities as presented. Moreover, the
government of South Africa needs to maintain a regulatory system that enables for segregation
of non-GM and GMO maize along the maize value chain to allow for preference for South
African non-GM maize by major non-GM maize importers.
Description
Keywords
GM and non-GM maize, Indicative Trade Potential Analysis, Growth Share Matrix and Gravity Model