Spatial Analysis of Climate Effect on Agriculture: Evidence from Smallholder Farmers in Côte d’Ivoire
Date
2022-06
Authors
Ochou, Fabrice Esse
Ouattara, Pierre Dignakouho
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
African Economic Research Consortium
Abstract
Climate change has been affecting the agriculture sector over the past few decades.
This impact could have serious consequences for farmers in developing countries. This
paper applies the spatial approach to assess the response of agricultural net revenue
to climate change in Côte d’Ivoire. It first uses a simple static comparative approach,
to show that market imperfection induces spatial heterogeneity in agricultural
product prices and hence spatial autocorrelation. Taking these findings as a point of
departure, empirical analysis uses a Spatial Durbin Error Model based on 2016 World
Bank Smallholder Household Survey Data from Côte d’Ivoire. Results reveal that
rainfall has a non-linear direct effect and positive linear spillover effects on agricultural
net revenue. In addition, the paper shows that the total marginal effect of rainfall is
positive in the central, eastern and northern regions of the country and negative in
the coastal and western regions. Moreover, predictions indicate that a decrease in
average precipitation of between 5% and 10% leads in general to a decrease in the
average net agricultural income from about 0.45% to 1.38%, while an increase in the
same ranges leads to a decrease in the average net agricultural income from about
0.02% to 0.05%
Description
Keywords
Climate change; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatial Durbin Error Model; Net revenue; Côte d’Ivoire