Climate Change and Agricultural Trade in Sub-Saharan Africa
Date
2022-05
Authors
Mahofa, Godfrey
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Abstract
Climate change is a threat to the agricultural sector and food security of many countries
in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, changes in climate across the continent are not
expected to be consistent as some countries will experience huge declines in rainfall
and increases in temperature. This implies that changes in agricultural productivity
due to climate change will not be uniform and this is likely to affect trade patterns
on the continent. Using a combination of climate change scenarios from the Food
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Global Agro-Ecological Zones
(FAO-GAEZ), cereals production data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nation’s FAOSTAT, and trade data from the United Nation’s UN Comtrade
database, this study explores the impact of climate change on agricultural trade,
particularly trade in major cereals, within SSA. Results show that by the 2050s, climate
change will lead to a majority of countries experiencing an increase in their need
to import cereals. However, some countries such as Burundi, Tanzania and Zambia
could have the potential to increase their exports. This suggests that trade flows are
likely to be important in strengthening the resilience of African food systems from
shocks emanating from climate change. For example, countries in East Africa such
as Tanzania could export maize to countries in Southern Africa that could experience
maize deficits. Delivering food from surplus to deficit areas is likely to be important in
the future, hence the need to improve the movement of food products across borders.
Policies to be adopted may include improving trade facilitation, reducing intra-SSA
tariffs, avoiding trade policy uncertainty, removing export bans, and encouraging the
production of cereal crops where countries have gained a comparative advantage.