Fragile States Working Papers (English)

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    The Impact of Conflict on State Capacity in Nigeria
    (African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-01) Babajide, Adedoyin; Ajayi, Victor
    Nigeria has witnessed incessant incidents of conflict-related violence in recent years. This paper seeks to investigate how conflicts affect state capacity in term of growth in GDP per capita and tax per GDP ratio, and to examine the potential spill over effect of conflict in neighbouring state. The System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique is employed for a panel data of 37 states in Nigeria over the period 2000 to 2013. Our main results show that increase in incident of conflict reduces state capacity, with more negative effect on growth than tax. We also find evidence that states suffer weaker growth and loss of tax revenue because of conflict in adjacent states due to spill over effect of conflict. The difference-in-differences method is used to unravel the net effect of conflict in the Boko Haram afflicted states relative to other states. The findings suggest that individuals living in states heavily affected by Boko Haram experienced a negative change in state capacity, especially in their perception of government provision of health and education, relative to unaffected states between 2008 and 2012.
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    Youth Employability and Peace-Building in Post-Conflict Côte d’Ivoire: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial
    (2022-01) KIMOU, Assi José Carlos; BARRY, Ismahel Abdoul
    This paper investigates the impact of alternative economic opportunities for the youth in consolidating positive peace. Using data from randomized control trial from a cash- for-work program for unskilled youngsters, with no opportunities in the labor market, we capture the causal effect of employment on social cohesion and trust in institutions in post- conflict Côte d'Ivoire. We estimate the short term and midterm impacts of the program from a sample of 4,160 youngsters randomly drawn including 3,125 beneficiaries and 1,035 in the control group in 16 municipalities nationwide. We also include in the analysis the prediction of youth behavior in favor of peace conditional to their participation in the program by running a LASSO model. In the short term, participation in the program decreases the odds to trust out-community youth by 29% and the odds to trust colleagues by 16%. In the long term, having a paid job significantly increases the likelihood to attend community meeting by 20%, trust in family members by 17% and trust in colleagues by 25%. Further, participation in the program is found to significantly predict behavior to peace. Lastly, while training in entrepreneurship negatively predict social cohesion, training in paid-job positively predict attitude to peace.
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    Identifying Binding Constraints on Growth in the Context of Fragility: The Case of South Sudan
    (African Economic Research Consortium, 2022-01) Deng, Lual A.; Hussien, Abdurohman Ali; Mayai, Augustino Ting
    The central premise of this study is that violent conflict is the primary binding constraint to economic growth, and an obstacle to transition from fragility to stability in South Sudan. The study looks at the determinants of growth, and then applies the Growth Diagnostics Framework (GDF) to support the central premise of this study. Two key hypotheses underpin the central premise of this research: (1) Violent conflict has constrained investment in South Sudan during the period 2012-2016; and (2) Violent conflict continues to weaken institutions and capacities of the State to provide safety and economic opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in South Sudan.
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    Identifying Binding Constraints on Growth in the Context of Fragility: The Case of South Sudan
    (2022-01) Lual A., Deng; Hussien, Abdurohman Ali; Mayai, Augustino Ting
    The central premise of this study is that violent conflict is the primary binding constraint to economic growth, and an obstacle to transition from fragility to stability in South Sudan. The study looks at the determinants of growth, and then applies the Growth Diagnostics Framework (GDF) to support the central premise of this study. Two key hypotheses underpin the central premise of this research: (1) Violent conflict has constrained investment in South Sudan during the period 2012-2016; and (2) Violent conflict continues to weaken institutions and capacities of the State to provide safety and economic opportunities for sustainable livelihoods in South Sudan
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    Economic Costs of Civil Conflicts: The Case of Burundi
    (2022) Ndoricimpa, Arcade; Ndayikeza, Michel-Armel
    This study examines the effects of episodes of civil conflicts in Burundi on its economic performance. The study applies the regression method using Extreme Bound Analysis, and the Synthetic Control method. Our main results indicate that: (i) from 1970 to 2015, civil conflicts, on average, reduced economic growth by 4 percentage points per year of conflict; (ii) the 1993-2003 civil war cost each Burundian between US$ 1,290 and US$ 1,520 and between US$ 8 billion and US$ 10 billion to the whole country; (iii) the last civil conflict in 2015 has been relatively costly, having reduced economic growth by 8.9 percentage points relative to its counterfactual. These results highlight the need to consolidate peace to eliminate fragility and achieve long-term economic development.