Inter-relationships between Fragility and Poverty: A Micro-level Analysis in Kenya
Date
2021-05-22
Authors
Kebede, Sindu
Baliki, Ghassan
Ngenoh, Evans
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AERC
Abstract
The relationship between fragility and poverty remains unexplored due to a number of
factors. First, the concept of fragility and its measures have overlooked heterogeneity
at the micro-level while focusing on fragility at the macro- or state-level. Second, due
to plausible endogeneity in the relationship between fragility and poverty, as well
as the lack of viable and strong instruments, it remains difficult to draw causality
pathways. This study contributes to the fragility-poverty literature by taking a microlevel approach, proposing individual-level measure of fragility, namely the fragility
exposure index, which measures individuals’ perceptions and experiences of fragility.
This allows us to test the effect of poverty on the levels of fragility. We address the
potential endogeneity of poverty by using a shock-related variable as an instrument,
namely sum of prior climatic shocks faced by households in the past 12 months
prior to the survey. This is made possible by a three-year panel data set, HORTINLEA
household survey, conducted in rural and peri-urban areas of Kenya. The findings
suggest that higher poverty rates increase perceptions and experiences of fragility
at the micro-level. This strong association holds for different specifications, but
more significant results are found using instrumental variable estimation approach.
From the three dimensions of fragility, economic inclusion shows significance and
strong relationship to poverty, while human security shows strong and significance
association to poverty only in the IV-2SLS estimation. As such, our finding ascertains
two outcomes: on the one hand, use of instrumental variable approach is a viable
option to identify the link between poverty and fragility; on the other hand, there is
indeed a strong and significant association between poverty and fragility, whereby
better-off households (in terms of less poverty) are less likely to be fragile.