The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Plantation Agriculture in Nigeria: Implication for Enhanced Productivity
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Date
2017-11-30
Authors
Fonta, William M.
Bossa, Aymar Y.
Sylla, Mouhamadou B.
Urama, Nathaniel E.
Edame, Greg E.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
African Economic Research consortium
Abstract
This study used the Ricardian analytical framework to examine the relative importance
of climate normals (average long-term temperature and precipitation) in explaining net
revenue per hectare (NRh) for cocoa farms in Nigeria under supplementary irrigated
and rainfed conditions. A farm-household survey involving 280 cocoa farmers across
seven cocoa-producing states in Nigeria was carried out. Net revenue per cocoa hectare
was regressed on climate, household socioeconomic characteristics and other control
variables. The results indicate high sensitivity of NRh to climate normals in Nigeria,
depending on whether cocoa farms are supplementary irrigated or not. On the average,
annual increases in temperature and decreasing precipitations are associated with NRh
losses for rainfed farms, whereas it increases for irrigated cocoa farms. Projections
of future climate change impacts using different climate scenarios (i.e., 6 CORDEX
Regional Climate Models [RCMs] Ensemble between 2036-2065 and 2071-2100, and
a 2.50
C increase in temperature only, a 5% decrease in rainfall only, and a uniform
2.50
C increase in temperature and a 5% reduction in precipitation from 2050-2100),
suggest a wide range of outcomes on NRh for both rainfed and supplementary irrigated
cocoa farms. Specifically, the various climate scenarios predict a fall in NRh for rainfed
farms, compared to net gains for irrigated cocoa farms. This clearly shows irrigation as
an important adaptation strategy by farmers in Nigeria to reduce the harmful effects of
climate change.
Description
Keywords
cocoa agriculture , , Ricardian valuation, , climate change projections, , Nigeria