Agricultural Economics

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    THE POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE TO BOTSWANA ECONOMY- The Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Modelling Application
    (University Of Bostwana, 2020-09-06) GATSOSWE, KOKETSO
    To determine the the potential impact of livestock productivity increase on Botswana economic growth; poverty and income inequality reduction, food security and; employment, the study utilized the Thurlow (2004) South African recursive dynamic CGE model. The model is an extension of the static standard CGE model developed by Lofgren et al., (2002) under the auspices of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The model was parameterized and initialized to the modified version of the 2011 Botswana economy EcoMod SAM with behavioural parameters and information set on exogenous variables and parameters of the dynamic sub-model. It was then solved in GAMS as a mixed complimentary problem (MCP) with PATH solver. The solution results were then exported from GAMS to excel spreadsheet for formal presentation of selected variables relevant to the study objectives. Three of simulations were undertaken, namely; the baseline scenario (referred to as the reference or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario); the counterfactual scenario and; the sensitivity tests simulations. Given an average Botswana economy growth rate of 4.3 percent, the baseline scenario gave an average annual increase of 4.37 percent in total GDP showing a close similitude of the model real GDP growth rates. This indicates that the model generates the BAU scenario that realistically approximates the evolution of the Botswana economy during eight-year time horizon, 2011-2019. The counterfactual results were analysed by a paired comparison of the values of selected indicators for the reference scenario. A 5 percent increase in Hick-neutral technological progress in livestock sector translates to a 0.40 percent rise in in the aggregate welfare of the Botswana economy. The livestock productivity increase is therefore capable of increasing the level of economic activity. Private consumption- used synonymously to household final consumption expenditure, increased by 0.36 percent demonstrating the households’ participation and gain from livestock GDP growth hence increase in food security and poverty reduction. Complimentary to 0.76 percent increase in investment, this increase in consumption due to price reductions improved food security (food availability and accessibility to the low income households with high food consumption shares) and their overall welfare. Moreover, the 5 percent increase in the livestock productivity caused an employment increase in all the labour skill types. The unskilled labour type skill increased the most and consequently leading increase in rural households’ income (as is agriculture specific an most of the rural people in Botswana generally have received no special training and has few specific skills, thus unskilled). The sensitivity analyses results showed both the quantitative and the qualitative results to be generally robust. These findings recommends that improve-livestock policy is a plausible and appealing choice for policy makers in promoting the country’s economic growth, reducing poverty, income inequality and rural unemployment. It is therefore suggested that, in implementing the improve-livestock policy, there is need to capture in the specification of the livestock stockflow linkages and recognize the livestock capital as a factor of production in production sectors. This is to trace the livestock production system external shocks to the economic flows and capture livestock capital vital role in other economic sectors particularly other agriculture and manufacturing.
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    ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF TRANSBOUNDARY ANIMAL DISEASE CONTROL IN NTUNGAMO AND RAKAI DISTRICTS, UGANDA. A CASE OF FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE AND EAST COAST FEVER
    (Makerere University, 2013-10-21) BAYIYANA IRENE, BAYIYANA
    Transboundary animal diseases (TADs) are a major threat to livestock keepers affecting growth and productivity. This study was therefore conducted specifically to: characterise agropastoralists in Ntungamo and Rakai districts; evaluate the farm level benefits and costs associated with the control of TADs; and determine the factors influencing farmers’ willingness to pay for TADs control. A sample of 176 farmers from Rakai and Ntungamo districts was used to generate responses. Data were collected using pretested questionnaires and analysed using SPSS and STATA software. Analytical tools used included descriptive statistics, Cost Benefit Analysis and Logit models. The study revealed that 60% of the farmers were willing to pay for TADs control. Spraying and vaccination were the most commonly used methods of TADs control costing UGX 8,867 and UGX 500 per animal per year respectively. Total annual avoided losses per animal were 64% higher if TADs were controlled than if they were not controlled. The Benefits of TADS Control outweighed Costs with BC ratio of 4.4. Training in disease control, farmer’s annual income, herd size and household size were key factors influencing farmers’ WTP. Richer farmers had a higher probability of paying for TADs control compared to low income farmers. In order to ensure effective TADs control, Vaccination should be provided at a lower cost to encourage farmers’ WTP for TADs control. Farmers need to be trained in disease control and sensitized on the importance of their payment towards TADs control as this boosts their incomes & livelihoods
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    ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING SMALLHOLDER FARMERS’ PARTICIPATION IN TOBACCO CONTRACT FARMING AND ITS IMPACT ON LAND PRODUCTIVITY. A CASE OF HURUNGWE DISTRICT, MASHONALAND WEST PROVINCE, ZIMBABWE.
    (UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, 2020-12-08) Ziyadhuma, Prosper
    This study used farm level data from Hurungwe district in Mashonaland West province of Zimbabwe to estimate a logistic regression to identify factors that influence smallholder farmers’ decision to participate in tobacco contract farming. The results reveal that age and distance to the main road negatively influence while gender, farming experience, education level, access to internet and firm reputation positively influence smallholder farmers’ decision to participate in contract farming. To determine the impact of contract farming on land productivity (yield per hectare) between contract farming participants and their counterparts who did not participate, the treatment evaluation model with the associated propensity score matching (PSM) was used. The model permits comparison in terms of yield per hectare between the two groups after controlling for other observable and non-observable smallholder farmer characteristics. The estimated results support the hypothesis that contracted tobacco farmers obtain higher yield per hectare than non-contracted farmers do. The study recommends that the government of Zimbabwe through the ministry of agriculture should create an environment comfortable for tobacco contracting firms and tobacco farmers to work together since tobacco contract farming increase farmers’ yield. More so, policies that aim to encourage farmers’ education and farmer’s access to internet are important since educated farmers participate more in tobacco contract farming
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    ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING SMALLHOLDER FARMERS’ PARTICIPATION IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT ACTIVITIES AND THEIR IMPACT ON FOOD SECURITY: THE CASE OF MBIRE DISTRICT, MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE, ZIMBABWE
    (UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, 2019-05-04) MUNDOWA, Tussle Mishek
    This dissertation investigates the factors influencing smallholder farmer’s decision to participate in non-farm employment activities and the impact of this on rural households’ food security status in the Mbire District of Zimbabwe. The analysis uses a treatment evaluation model and the associated propensity score matching (PSM) technique, which permits the comparisons between the food security status of smallholder farmers who participate in non-farm employment activities and those who do not. Estimation of propensity scores enable us to identify the factors influencing smallholder farmers’ decision to diversify into non-farm employment activities. The results indicate that a number of demographic (gender and education of household head), infrastructural (internet access and distance to the main road) and farm level characteristics (land size, livestock herd owned and productive assets) have qualitative and quantitatively different impacts on rural households’ participation in non-farm employment activities. Further, the empirical analysis confirms that diversifying into non-farm employment activities improves rural households’ food security status. The results imply that non-farm employment activities can be a way out of food insecurity in Mbire district. The study therefore recommends the government and NGOs to induce the rural households to diversify into non-farm activities as they improve their food security status since the climatic conditions in the district are not well suitable for agricultural practices.